Huge Protests All over the U.S.

Tens of thousands of people continued protesting police brutality in general and the death of George Floyd in particular yesterday. Rather than diminishing, the crowds of marchers are bigger than they have been all week. In fact, the protest movement has become international, with marches in Europe, Asia, Australia and Africa as well. And this in the midst of a global pandemic and economic crisis as well. It's a triple whammy and a huge problem for Donald Trump, since he's the guy in charge now.

The marchers have a number of specific issues they are trying to get politicians to tackle. One is shifting money from police departments to community services. This goes under the slogan "Defund the police." Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) spoke about this on NBC's "Meet the Press" yesterday. Booker: "We are overpoliced as a society. We are investing in police, which is not solving problems, but making them worse."

A second issue is the sale of second-hand military equipment the Pentagon doesn't want anymore to local police departments. Many people believe that equipment that was designed to help the U.S. Army fight foreign armies has no business being used by police forces against U.S. citizens. When sheriffs or the police use army tanks against American civilians, it sends the message that they see American civilians as the enemy and are no different from foreign soldiers. Does any sheriff's department or police department really need one of these?

On Saturday, D.C. saw the largest crowd of marchers since the Women's March against Donald Trump in 2017. The number of protesters was estimated at 100,000 to 200,000. From published photos, it appears that most people were wearing masks and keeping their distance from other marchers.

Meanwhile, Trump was nowhere to be seen. At his one public outing of the weekend, on Friday, he spent time bragging about May's (inaccurate) jobs report, and how unemployment was way down, and how pleased that must make George Floyd as he looks down from heaven. Ulysses S. Grant, who was the 18th president of the United States, was profoundly tone-deaf. "I know two songs," the general observed. "One of them is 'Yankee Doodle,' and the other one isn't." It would seem the White House now has a new champion for tone-deafness, some 150 years later. In case there was any doubt about that, Trump also toured a factory that makes COVID-19 testing swabs on Friday. Because he refused to wear a mask, as is his custom, all of the swabs produced that day had to be thrown away.

After Friday's PR disasters, the President was holed up in the White House, sending as many as 290 (!) tweets a day, many of them urging the police to come down hard on the protesters. But that is unlikely to happen, since the D.C. police are controlled by the mayor, Muriel Bowser, and she is in no mood to listen to Trump. In fact, she had 16th St. NW, which leads to the White House, painted with "BLACK LIVES MATTER" in bright yellow letters so large they can be seen from space in this satellite photo on the left. The view from on the ground at the newly named "Black Lives Matter Plaza" is shown on the right.

Bowser also called the Trump administration's deployment of active-duty military troops and the National Guard "an invasion" of her city pitting the federal government against her constituents. No one expects the demonstrations to end any time soon. (V & Z)

Trump Got a Wall and a Crowd

If all of this were not enough, Donald Trump is also living out a version of the story "The Monkey's Paw" right now. For those unfamiliar with the W. W. Jacobs short story, a man is granted three wishes by virtue of a monkey's paw that comes into his possession, but the paw is cursed and the wishes are fulfilled in the most horrible manner possible. For example, they wish for money (specifically, £200), and not long after a man shows up with a check for £200. He tells the wisher that his son fell into a machine at the factory where he works, died a gruesome death, and the £200 is compensation for the loss.

Anyhow, Trump-updated version of this (Trumpdated?) is that he has been promising to build the Great Wall of Trump since he announced his run for the presidency in 2015. He finally got a wall, just not on the Mexican border. Instead, it surrounds the White House and provides a visual symbol of his isolation. All that is needed to complete his fortress is a moat with alligators, although it would have to be restocked every spring since the creatures couldn't survive D.C. winters, when the temperature can dip below freezing at night. On the other hand, an alligator-filled moat around the White House would be considerably cheaper than the moat around the United States (filled with alligators or snakes, of course) that Trump once proposed. In any event, while he promised to wall off America to keep out the criminals and rapists, what he has done is wall himself off from the American people.

The walled off White House and surrounding areas have been compared to the Green Zone in Iraq, a walled off enclave in the center of Baghdad where the U.S. military had its headquarters. Since Trump doesn't like the Green New Deal or anything else green (but does like white people), maybe his should be called the "white zone." After all, the White House is in it.

If it were not enough that the wall makes the President look, well, weak and frightened, it is also the case that the exterior portion of his personal Great Wall (Great Chain-Link Fence?) remains accessible to the general public, which of course includes protesters. They have quickly turned it into a shrine/political statement honoring George Floyd and Black Lives Matter and calling for the reform or elimination of police departments. See, for example:

The wall is not the only Trump "wish" that was fulfilled this weekend. He also drew a huge crowd to Washington and to the National Mall. Maybe not as big as the one Barack Obama got at his inauguration, but still big. Look:

Trump took to Twitter to brag about the crowd size, declaring what is perhaps the hollowest victory in the history of hollow victories:

Much smaller crowd in D.C. than anticipated. National Guard, Secret Service, and D.C. Police have been doing a fantastic job. Thank you!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 7, 2020

The National Park Service, among others, says this was the largest protest in the country this weekend, and may have been the largest in the history of Washington, making Trump's "victory" even hollower.

It may surprise some people, but in Franklin D. Roosevelt's day (and before it), visitors were free to roam the White House grounds at will. His security advisers wanted to protect it with sandbags and camouflage, but Roosevelt refused because he didn't want to live in a bunker. Only in 1981 did tourists have to pass through metal detectors on tours. When they were installed, the Secret Service was startled to discover hundreds of tourists visiting the White House had guns—presumably to protect themselves against the crime zone they thought D.C. was. In 1995, Bill Clinton closed a two-block stretch of Pennsylvania Ave. around the White House to vehicles. Republicans were aghast. The 1996 Republican presidential candidate, Bob Dole, put this in his platform: "We will reopen Pennsylvania Avenue in front of the White House as a symbolic expression of our confidence in the restoration of the rule of law." He didn't mention anything about alligators or snakes.

A president who needs to hide behind fences and concrete barriers isn't the leader of his people, he is their prisoner. Could the crowd storm the barricades and break through? Not likely. But then again, it wasn't likely on July 14, 1789 in Paris. Now that day is France's national holiday, called Fête Nationale in French and "Bastille Day" in English. (V & Z)

Voters: Things Are Out of Control

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows that 80% of Americans think that the situation in the country is out of control. Only 15% think it is under control. People are worried about COVID-19, pessimistic about the economy, and concerned about Donald Trump's ability to unite the nation. Such a high number is never good for an incumbent.

Also not good for Trump is the poll's finding that 59% of voters are more troubled by the police killing an unarmed black man than they are by the protests. Only 27% are more troubled by the protests. As expected, there is a big partisan divide on that, with 81% of Democrats, 59% of independents, and 29% of Republicans who see the death of George Floyd as the big problem.

Among registered voters, 49% plan to vote for Biden and 42% plan to vote for Trump. This is the same as a month ago in this poll. Biden's biggest advantages over Trump are among black voters (82% to 9%), Latinos (57% to 33%), women (56% to 35%), voters under 35 (54% to 35%), white voters with college degrees (52% to 39%), independents (45% to 35%), and seniors (51% to 43%). Trump does best with all white voters (49% to 43%), men (50% to 43%), and white voters without college degrees (55% to 37%).

On the issues, Biden does better on being competent (+9), dealing with COVID-19 (+11), health care (+15), addressing concerns of black people (+19), dealing with women's issues (+21), addressing concerns of Latinos (+24), and bringing the country together (+25). Trump scores better on dealing with China (+3), dealing with the economy (+11), and cutting the unemployment rate (+13). It is hard to see how the latter two numbers can hold if the current economic situation becomes the new normal.

Finally, Trump's approval rate is 45% and his disapproval rate is 53%, basically where it has been for 3½ years. (V)

Republican Leaders Are Beginning to Part Ways with Trump

Last week, former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis slammed Donald Trump in an op-ed, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) praised that critique. No doubt Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is concerned about the current situation. She is always concerned. But that's not the end of it. Now Trump has lost the Bushes. A report in the New York Times reveals that close associates of George W. Bush say he won't endorse Trump or vote for him. Former Florida governor Jeb Bush is also not sure how he will vote. Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) also won't back Trump and may again write in his wife, Ann. John McCain's widow, Cindy McCain, also won't support Trump, but is hesitant to go public with her views because one of her sons may want to run for public office.

Perhaps worst of all, former Secretary of State Colin Powell announced yesterday that he will vote for Joe Biden. Powell told CNN that Trump lies about things and the Republicans in the Senate won't hold him accountable. The General also said the president has "drifted away" from the Constitution, raising the question of exactly when it was that Trump was in the vicinity of the Constitution. In any event, Powell was seconded by Admiral William McRaven (ret.), who directed the raid that killed Osama bin Laden. McRaven said: "President Trump has shown he doesn't have the qualities necessary to be a good commander in chief. The country needs to move forward without him at the helm."

Other Republican leaders, like former House speakers John Boehner and Paul Ryan, are playing their cards close to their vests so far and won't say how they will vote—yet. Nor has Condi Rice said how she will vote. But it is not even summer yet.

Individually, these rebukes probably wouldn't sway many voters, but if the trickle becomes a flood, it could give some Republican voters permission to vote Democratic, just this one time. If even five percent of Republicans defect to Biden, Trump is toast. (V)

Republican Leaders Are Worried that Trump Will Cost Them the Senate

Republican leaders are fretful that Donald Trump's approach to the nationwide civil unrest gripping the country will alienate middle-of-the-road voters and cost them the Senate. Their concern is that his laser-like focus on his base is going to backfire on them. Earlier in the year, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said that winning college graduates and suburban women would be the key to keeping his job, and those groups strongly disapprove of how Trump is handling the protests. And this is after they disapproved of how he is handling the COVID-19 crisis. One GOP senator said: "It's the tone and words he's using that I think might harm us back home." Another Republican senator said that Trump's behavior is never discussed at the weekly GOP caucus lunch on Tuesdays, but privately, senators talk about it all the time and are worried.

Other Republican senators noted the op-ed piece that George Will, a staunch conservative Republican, wrote in The Washington Post last week, in which he said: "voters must dispatch [Trump's] congressional enablers, especially the senators who gambol around his ankles with a canine hunger for petting." And they know that Will has been on their team for decades.

Some Republicans know their history and it doesn't make them happy. As a general rule, when the nation is in crisis, the president gets the blame. In the past, ticket splitting used to be common, so senators could survive an unpopular president, but those days are long gone. In 2008, for example, George W. Bush was very unpopular and not only did a Democrat (Barack Obama) win the White House, but the blue team also picked up eight Senate seats. Republican senators are very worried about a blue wave that could not only give Joe Biden the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, but also the majority Senate leader's gavel to Chuck Schumer (D-NY). In 1992, a Republican senator from New York, Al D'Amato, was reelected in the face of a million-vote plurality for Bill Clinton. That is unthinkable now and every Republican senator who thinks Biden is going to win knows that.

In short, the presidential and Senate races are now joined at the hip. If the Democrats think that Arizona is in play, they will fund get-out-the-vote drives in Phoenix and there goes Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ). If Democrats think Georgia is in play, they will fund GOTV drives in Atlanta, and that might cost the GOP two Senate seats. The same holds for North Carolina and maybe even Montana.

Republican incumbents are caught between a rock and a hard place. The Republican Party is now a wholly owned subsidiary of the Trump Organization. Any senator who deviates even slightly from what their leader says will get instant negative feedback. But his positions are anathema to Democrats, many independents, and even some NeverTrump Republicans. And Trump's handling of COVID-19 and the civil unrest is just making it harder for Republican incumbents. If Trump goes down, he will very likely take the Senate with him. The unfortunate thing for the Republican senators up this year is that Trump doesn't care about them. All he cares about is staying in power and out of prison. (V)

House Democrats Are Working on a Police Reform Bill

Rep. Karen Bass (D-CA), chairwoman of the Congressional Black Caucus, and Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-NY) are working on a sweeping police reform bill entitled "The Justice in Policing Act of 2020." They are working together with Sens. Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Kamala Harris (D-CA) (both of whom are black). The involvement of the senators is basically irrelevant, since there is zero chance Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will even let the bill come up for debate in the Senate. On the other hand, House Democrats could pass it on a straight party-line vote to make a statement to the voters about what the Democrats will do if they keep the House and win the Senate and White House. As a way to engage black voters and get them to the polls, it is a good tactic. It will also help to keep moving the Overton Window on this subject, which has already shifted more in a week than it did in the 30 years previous. Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said she will bring the bill to the floor by the end of this month. Donald Trump will instinctively oppose it, but more or less saying he is fine with white police officers killing unarmed black people is likely to lose him more votes than it gains him.

The bill hasn't been finalized yet, but it is expected to address the decades old mistreatment of minorities by the police. Specifically, it is expected to change how officers are trained, how they interact with the public, and what happens to them if they violate police department guidelines and the law. One potential proposal that is likely to be in the bill is making the use of excessive force by a police officer a federal crime that can be prosecuted by the Justice Dept. Another potential item that might be in there is a provision allowing victims of excessive force or their families to sue the individual officer for damages. The idea here is that if officers know that using excessive force could cost them their bank account and their house, they might think twice before using it. Democrats also want to limit the "qualified immunity" current law provides to officers.

Other proposed changes include giving the Justice Dept.'s Civil Rights Division subpoena power to investigate allegations of police misconduct. Usually, such allegations are handled at the state level, but if the state AG isn't interested, there is nothing the feds can do. If this bill becomes law, the Justice Dept. will be able to step in when a state doesn't. Another innovation would be the creation of a "National Police Misconduct Registry." At present, if a so-called bad apple is fired for misconduct, he often just moves to another state, applies for a job as a police officer, and gets it. A national registry would make flying under the radar much more difficult because the law would require police departments to check it before hiring new officers. So, an officer using excessive force would be aware that another likely consequence is not being able to work in law enforcement ever again.

Yet another national database would record the use of force by police against civilians, broken down by race, ethnicity, national origin, religion, age, sex, disability, English language proficiency, and other criteria. This will likely provide statistical evidence to show which police departments are targeting specific groups. The bill will also make lynching a federal crime.

Police unions are sure to oppose the bill and everything in it. It won't become law any time before Jan. 2021, but could become a flashpoint in the election campaign, with Democrats saying it is needed to rein in out-of-control police and Republicans saying it makes it too difficult for the police to do their jobs. (V)

Young Black Voters Might Stay Home on Election Day, or Maybe Not

There are two contradictory news stories right now about young, black voters. One of them discusses eight focus groups that were run in January and how young black voters feel. One black man said that his grandfather and mother had voted for years and got nothing, so "Why should I participate in the same process." It would seem he does not place much value on the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act. Branden Snyder, executive director of Detroit Action, a grassroots group, is worried that a lot of young black voters are going to opt out and stay home in November. Young black men are the weakest part of Joe Biden's support among black voters. Older women are the strongest part.

Now for a Mad Lib. A [day | week | month | quarter] is a [short | long] time in [politics | baseball | geology]. You fill it in. The focus groups happened before COVID-19 hit, 40 million people lost their jobs, George Floyd was killed by the police, and protest marches began all over the country. The other story says that voter registrations, volunteer activity, and donations to Democratic-linked groups have surged in the past week due to the protests. Voto Latino has seen a massive upswing in voter registrations, which is good news for Joe Biden, since polls show that 62% of registered Latino voters prefer him over Trump. It is expected that Voto Latino would register 50,000 new young voters by the end of the day Sunday. It also signed up 1,500 new volunteers and trained 700 voting squad captains. The group's focus is in Arizona and Texas, and its goal is to register 500,000 new Latino voters by Election Day.

Another group, Rock the Vote, signed up 50,000 new voters last week. Of these, 70% were under 30, 76% were women, and 39% were people of color. Mi Familia Vota, another nonprofit group, said it registered 3,000 new voters this week. And there are many more such groups registering voters in much larger numbers than ever. (V)

Sanders Is a Team Player This Time

Many Democrats were furious about the somewhat tepid support Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) gave to Hillary Clinton in 2016, and still blame him for the election of Donald Trump. Sanders clearly has learned his lesson. If he wants to have any influence with a future President Joe Biden, he needs to do a lot better this time, and is in fact doing so. He dropped out months earlier this time and has given his unambiguous and full-throated support to Biden. Neera Tanden, president of the liberal think tank Center for American Progress, and no fan of Sanders, said: "Sen. Sanders has been a tremendous force in helping unify the party. I am grateful for his work to urge his supporters to support Biden and fight Trump."

People who know Sanders well have said that despite their policy differences, he personally likes Biden and loathes Donald Trump. Sanders never got along that well with Hillary Clinton, which may explain why he didn't go the extra mile for her. Also, he thought she was going to win, so it wasn't necessary. Now he definitely understands that Trump could win again.

Jeff Weaver, a long-time Sanders adviser, has created a pro-Biden super PAC called America's Progressive Promise. It is about to kick off an 8-week, $20 million campaign to improve Biden's standing among Sanders' voters, especially young voters, Latinos, and progressives. It will highlight Biden's positions on kitchen-table economic issues, rather than pie-in-the-sky initiatives that could never pass the Senate, even if the Democrats capture the upper chamber. The campaign to win over Sanders' voters before the convention is to prevent a repeat of his own delegates booing him when he supported the Party's nominee in 2016. Of course, if the convention is virtual, any booing will also be virtual.

Another top Sanders hand, Chuck Rocha, has created a pro-Biden super PAC aimed at Latinos in swing states. He says that he has millions of dollars in commitments and will begin hitting the airwaves this month. Neither Weaver nor Rocha would do this without Sanders' blessing.

Still, Sanders isn't in for 100%. For one thing, he has refused to give Biden or the DNC his prized e-mail address list, which would allow Biden to make a direct pitch to Sanders' millions of donors. Also, no matter what he does, some of Sanders' supporters don't buy the idea that getting some of what you want is better than getting nothing. For them, it's all or nothing. Kurt Ehrenberg, Sanders' adviser in New Hampshire, said: "There's just some people who are going to vote for Ralph Nader every time." (V)

Sanders Has No Coattails

One of the reasons Bernie Sanders may have decided to get aboard the S.S. Biden is that while he is good at getting votes for himself, he is not at all good at transferring any of the magic to other progressive candidates, so he is pretty isolated. Sanders has backed a number of progressive candidates for the Senate, and so far every one has lost his or her primary. The ones whose primaries haven't happened yet are expected to lose badly. For example, Sanders-backed progressive Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez didn't make the July Senate runoff in Texas. Instead, the Democratic contest is between DSCC favorite MJ Hegar and President Pro Tem of the Texas Senate Royce West.

The upcoming primaries don't look any better for Sanders' favorites. On June 23, veteran Amy McGrath is expected to wipe out progressive state senator Charles Booker in Kentucky. The DSCC sees her as a far stronger opponent to take on Mitch McConnell. A week later, Colorado will hold its senatorial primary. Moderate Democrat John Hickenlooper is expected to crush progressive Andrew Romanoff there. Polls have him at 44% to Romanoff's 12% in a multicandidate contest. In Maine, progressive Betsy Sweet is going to be sour after the more moderate Sara Gideon trounces her on July 14. Polls have Gideon ahead 67% to 17%. (V)

Vote Counting Is Still Going on in Pennsylvania

The Pennsylvania primary was last Tuesday, but the votes are still being counted in some races, including auditor general and the state legislature. The problem is the influx of 1.4 million ballots after the state switched to no-excuse absentee voting for the first time. As of the last report (last Friday), only 14,000 of the 160,000 absentee ballots in Philadelphia had been counted. It could be days before all of them have been counted.

Nina Ahmad, the Democratic candidate for auditor general (and whose race hasn't been called yet), said: "Now I understand why my mother told me patience is a virtue." State representative candidate Rick Krajewski (D) has told his supporters that it could take weeks for the final tally to be known. Even when the AP has called a race, it may not really be over. Nikil Saval (D), who challenged incumbent state Sen. Larry Farnese (D), and and who has been declared the winner by the AP, hasn't claimed victory and Farnese hasn't conceded because thousands of ballots haven't been counted yet.

Election officials fear that absentee voting in November will be even bigger and the delays in counting will be even greater. Democrats fear that if the election comes down to Pennsylvania and it takes a week or more to count the votes, Donald Trump will declare victory and demand that the counting stop. There is good reason for that fear. In Florida in 2000, the Supreme Court intervened in an election dispute and told the state to stop counting the votes.

Wanda Murren, a spokeswoman for the Pennsylvania secretary of state, said: "No one could have foreseen the volume of mail ballots used by Pennsylvania voters in this election." She also said there were lessons to be learned for November. One lesson is that using modern, high-speed vote counting machines works better than ancient, low-speed machines. But buying new machines takes time and costs money, and money is kind of in short supply at the moment on account of all the people who have filed for unemployment insurance in the past 2 months. (V)

Poisoning Is Way Up

No, Russian President Vladimir Putin hasn't gotten out the polonium (yet). But calls to poison control centers are way up. The CDC conducted a study to find out what's going on. It turns out that it's not polonium. It's more mundane: Clorox.

In April, Donald Trump told people to drink or inhale bleach to fight COVID-19. The faithful, mostly white people in the South, have been doing so ever since. At least one death has resulted from Dr. Trump's prescriptions. A man in Arizona died after ingesting fish-tank cleaner containing chloroquine, thinking he was following Trump's instructions for preventing COVID-19. Medical specialists have been warning for months that taking bleach, chloroquine, or hydroxychloroquine is dangerous, but many people believe Trump's advice over that of doctors and scientists on medical matters. (V)

Today's Presidential Polls

Bad news for Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) today. Joe Biden has a double-digit lead in Michigan. This is the 10th straight poll in which Biden has led. He can probably win the Wolverine State on his own, without her help on the ticket. Also, with all the protests going on, that increases the chance of his picking a black woman as his running mate. (V)

State	Biden	Trump	Start	End	Pollster
Michigan	53%	41%	May 30	Jun 03	EPIC-MRA

Today's Senate Polls

The Republicans are almost certain to knock off Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL) in November. The only other blue Senate seat they had hoped to contest is that of Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI). Now that he has a 15-point lead and has led in all eight polls taken this year, his seat seems pretty safe as well. (V)

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	Start	End	Pollster
Michigan	Gary Peters*	51%	John James	36%	May 30	Jun 03	EPIC-MRA

* Denotes incumbent

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