Congress Is Getting Close to a New COVID-19 Relief Bill

After dilly-dallying for half a year, Congress may finally be getting closer to another COVID-19 relief bill. It is much closer to the one the Republicans wanted than the one the Democrats wanted. The price tag is about $900 billion. It contains stimulus checks of $600 to $700 and $300 per week supplemental unemployment insurance. It also contains aid to small businesses.

Sending people free money (checks) is popular, but according to Nobel Memorial Prize-winning Economist Paul Krugman, not terribly useful. The problem with the economy is not lack of demand. It is that many businesses are closed and many people are unemployed. In that case, putting all the money into higher unemployment payments and help for small businesses would make the most sense, but since when do politicians pick the right thing over the popular thing? Precisely this issue came up in a conference call yesterday. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) was in favor of focusing on unemployment payments (Krugman's approach) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) wanted to focus on the free money part. Sanders is not an economist but still ought to know that sending everybody under some income threshold a check means that people who are currently employed and happily working from home get money that could have gone to people who lost their jobs. In other words, Manchin took the progressive position advocated by Krugman and Sanders opposed it. What's wrong with this picture?

The bill also follows the proposal Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) made last week to exclude aid to state and local governments and a liability protection for employers who don't take measures to protect their employees from COVID-19. (V)

Pelosi Greenlights Haaland

Yesterday Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) did something that was very painful for her. She told Joe Biden that he could nominate Rep. Debra Haaland (D-NM) to be Secretary of the Interior. Haaland would be the first Native American to hold a cabinet position.

Pelosi has nothing against Native Americans in the cabinet. Her problem is that the Democrats are probably going to end up with only about 222 seats in the House, the smallest majority in decades. She can ill afford to lose another seat. But if Haaland moves to the executive branch, there will be a special election for her seat. The district, which is D+7, is badly gerrymandered. It contains Albuquerque and a large chunk of land southeast of it, plus territory north and west of it as well. Even if a Democrat wins Haaland's seat eventually in a special election, it will be vacant for months.

If Biden picks Haaland, there will be three special elections in the spring of 2021. In addition to Haaland's NM-01 district, there is Cedric Richmond's LA-02 district and Marcia Fudge's OH-11 district. Neither of the latter two is in any danger, but it could mean that for months, Pelosi will have only 219 members in her caucus, depending on a couple of races that haven't been called yet. That means even two defections could sink bills. That is not a great situation for her.

The tradeoff here is that progressives very much want Haaland in the cabinet and now Pelosi has blessed this. Presumably she got some chits from progressive House members that in return, she expects them to follow orders, at least until all three seats are filled. But even so, she is taking a risk because the Democrats could lose the special election for Haaland's district. (V)

McCarthy Still Silent about Biden's Win

On Monday, the Electoral College met and elected Joe Biden as the next president of the United States. On Tuesday, Mitch McConnell acknowledged this and said: "The Electoral College has spoken. So today I want to congratulate President-elect Joe Biden." However, McConnell's counterpart in the House, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) hasn't said boo. Silence. Nothing. No mention that Biden might have won after all.

McCarthy is not that stupid. He knows what happened and he knows very well what McConnell said. He's simply a coward and afraid to confront Donald Trump with news he doesn't want to hear. Not that long ago, McCarthy went on Fox News and said: "President Trump won this election, so everyone who's listening, do not be quiet. We cannot allow this to happen before our very eyes." It will be interesting to see if McCarthy shows up at Biden's inauguration and whether he is holding a sign reading "Stop the steal." (V)

Democrats Are Thinking about Reining in the President

Democrats often think long-term (e.g., climate change, wealth inequality) while Republicans often think short term (tax cut now, Trump will be inaugurated on Jan. 20). Democrats are not worried about Joe Biden misusing the powers of the presidency, but thinking ahead, they know that there could be a Republican elected to the presidency in 2024 or 2028 and are already worried about him misusing the powers of the office. Consequently they are already working on a package of measures to constrain the next Republican president. The basic idea is that they don't want King Donald II.

Interestingly enough, the measures actually stand a chance to pass Congress because of the Republicans' tendency to think short term. They know that measures to constrain the president will first apply to Joe Biden, and prevent him from repeatedly pushing the envelope on what is legal (as Donald Trump did) is just fine with them. If Junior is elected president in 2024, they will worry about that then. Or maybe they secretly believe that he has no chance.

The main sponsor of the president-is-not-a-king bill is Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), although the bill was largely written by Barack Obama's White House counsel, Bob Bauer, who also co-authored a book entitled: After Trump: Reconstructing the Presidency.

It covers many areas. For example, it would require the Justice Dept. to provide Congress with information about self-serving pardons and clarify the law about whether selling a pardon is a federal crime (bribery), although the pardon itself would still be valid. The bill would also prohibit self-pardons.

The bill would also strengthen Congress' power to enforce subpoenas against executive branch officials, limit the power of presidents to declare emergencies, and require the Justice Dept. to maintain a log of discussions with the White House.

In addition, the bill would require candidates and PACs to report foreign contacts. It would also make trying to obtain dirt on political opponents from foreign sources a federal crime. A clarification of what counts as an emolument from a foreign country is under discussion. The 157-page bill also contains a lot more items that relate to powers that Trump abused.

If there is a pardon-fest in the next couple of weeks, that could increase the visibility of the bill and make it a higher priority in the weeks after Jan. 20. Since Republicans would be happy to hamstring Biden and Democrats aren't worried that he will misuse his powers, some sort of bill like this one might actually have a chance of passing, although Mitch McConnell hasn't taken a position on it yet. (V)

Ron Johnson Is Betting the Farm on Trump

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) previously said he would not run for reelection in 2022, but is apparently thinking about doing it anyway. Before making a decision, he is hitching his wagon tightly to Donald Trump to see how that works out. As chairman of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, he has been holding hearings on possible irregularities in the election, a topic that will surely get Trump's attention and approval. It will also get the attention of Trumpy voters in Wisconsin. The problem is that it will also get the attention of Democrats in Wisconsin, and the recent election shows that there are more of the latter than the former. The Senator is also investigating Hunter Biden.

Johnson, a multimillionaire, is used to going it alone. In 2016, the RNC and NRSC abandoned him as a probable loser in his race against Russ Feingold, but he pulled it off anyway, using his own money. So he is unlikely to worry about what other Senate Republicans think of his little crusade.

It is now or never for Johnson since he is term limited as chairman and will have to give up the gavel or slot as ranking member on Jan. 3. The new chairman will be Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), who is also up for reelection in 2022. But Portman is not all in for Trump and more of a work horse than a show horse. He is likely to drop Johnson's investigations if the Republicans retain the majority.

Democrats believe that Johnson's maneuvers are all about seeing how tying himself to Trump works. If Trump's base is entirely with him, he might run again; otherwise, no. This is important because he is probably the Democrats' top target in 2022, and if he can't corral Trump's base, he will be very vulnerable. One Democrat, Tom Nelson, a Wisconsin county executive, has already announced his run for the Democratic senatorial nomination, but more Democrats are certain to follow.

Johnson's first test will happen on Jan. 6, as Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL) has said he will object to all the electoral votes in the swing states Joe Biden won. But Brooks needs one senator to object as well, otherwise his objection doesn't count. That's when the rubber will meet the road. Mitch McConnell has said he doesn't want any senators to object to the electoral votes. At that point, Johnson will have to decide who is more important: Trump or McConnell. If he chooses McConnell and doesn't object, then we (and the base) know that it was all for show and he isn't really willing to go to the mat for Trump. (V)

Trump Is Not Welcome in Florida

Donald Trump was planning to retire to his "home" at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, FL, when he leaves the White House, which will be 4 years earlier than he was intending to leave. But that may not be as smooth a move as he was hoping for. The neighbors don't want him and they have some tools to help them. In the 1990s, Trump had a dispute with the town government over the use of the property and he declared it to be a private club. It was then agreed that club members (including himself) would be banned from staying there for more than 7 consecutive days with a maximum of 21 days per year. At a town meeting, Trump's lawyer told the town council that the Donald would not live at Mar-a-Lago. That agreement is still in force. Trump has repeatedly tried to change the agreement but with no success.

The agreement with the town isn't Trump's only problem. In 1993, Trump signed a document deeding development rights over to the National Trust for Historic Preservation. That was accepted due to the historic nature of the main house, which was built in 1927 by cereal heiress Marjorie Merriweather Post. Trump bought it in 1985. It is the second largest mansion in Florida and has been used to host meetings with major foreign leaders. The agreement with the National Trust clearly states that the property may be used only as a private club and for no other purpose. Making it a private residence would violate that agreement.

Local residents have filed a lawsuit to prevent Trump from living at Mar-a-Lago, in violation of both agreements, of which they are well aware. Thus it will be up to the courts and the town council whether Trump can live there and what they will do if he just moves in and stays longer than 7 consecutive days. There is already bad blood between Trump and the council. There is a local ordinance that states that flagpoles may not be higher than 30 feet. Trump had one that was 50 feet high. The town demanded that he replace it with a 30-foot pole. So what did Trump do? He had a landscaping firm construct a 20-foot high hill and then he put a 30-foot pole on it.

Trump won that battle, but the town council may not be in any mood now to let him violate his 1993 agreement not to live there. It would certainly be ironic if he moved in and the town went to court to evict him at a time when millions of Americans are in danger of being evicted. Of course, Trump is free to buy another mansion in Florida and move there, but he would probably see that as defeat so most likely he will fight this one to the bitter end. On the other hand, he probably doesn't want his legacy to include a video of the local sheriff waving a court order in his face and then physically escorting him off the property. (V)

Three-Quarters of the States Will Elect Governors in 2021 or 2022

Two states (New Jersey and Virginia) will elect governors in 2021 and 36 more will elect them in 2022. Together, these 38 states hold 85% of the U.S. population. As we discovered this year, governors have a lot of power, so it matters a lot whom the voters choose. The 2020 election was a split decision: The Democrats won the White House but Republicans did well in Congress. Which party will win the gubernatorial elections? Here is a field guide to the upcoming gubernatorial elections:

THE BIG FOUR

• California: Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) generated some opposition due to his coronavirus restrictions. Republicans would like to recall him, as they did to Gray Davis in 2003. But the state is far more Democratic now than it was then and there is no star like Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) waiting in the wings to take over, so Newsom will almost certainly serve out his term and run for reelection in 2022. A big win would position him to take on that other famous California politician, Vice President-elect Kamala Harris, in the 2024 primaries, should Joe Biden decide to call it quits then.
  
  
• Texas: Every year, Democrats say: "And now Texas will turn purple." It never does. Democrats failed to do well in Texas again this year, so Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is likely to cruise to reelection in 2022. He has $38 million in the bank already and there is no high-profile Democrat itching to take him on. Beto O'Rourke gave Sen. Ted. Cruz (R) a run for his money in 2018, but Beto hasn't announced any future plans.
  
  
• Florida: Donald Trump won Florida fairly easily, so Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) isn't too worried. Besides, DeSantis will share the top of the ticket with Sen. Marco Rubio (R), so it will be a powerful combination. The only statewide elected Democrat is Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried. She is expected to challenge DeSantis, but several representatives are also considering a run.
  
  
• New York: Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) became a media star earlier this year due to his coronavirus briefings, which went viral. Cuomo is now in his third term, but there are no term limits in New York, so he could go for the fourth term that dad (Mario Cuomo) never got. One possible Republican opponent is Rep. Elise Stefanik, who has spent much of the year attacking Cuomo. New York has elected many Republican governors in the past, but the state is more Democratic now than it was when the last one (George Pataki) was elected in 2002.
  

THE OFF-YEAR CONTESTS

• Virginia: Gov. Ralph Northam (D) is term-limited, but his predecessor, Terry McAuliffe (D), wants to be governor again, which is legal. But before he can run in the general election, he will have to defeat two Black women named Jennifer and a Black lieutenant governor named Justin in a primary. The Republicans don't have a primary. They use the traditional smoke-filled room, only without the smoke these days. There will be a party convention, where former state House Speaker Kirk Cox (R), the ultimate insider, has the edge. However, far-right state Sen. Amanda Chase (R) is also in the running. She will test whether Trumpiness is contagious. If she doesn't get the nod, she may well run as an independent.
  
  
• New Jersey: Gov. Phil Murphy (D) will try to break the curse of the New Jersey Governors and get a second term, a feat that has eluded Democratic governors of the Garden State for over 40 years. The Republicans will probably nominate either NJ state GOP chairman Doug Steinhardt (R) or former assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R). There are more than 1 million more Democrats registered in New Jersey than Republicans, but the Republicans' biggest problem is that Murphy is going to campaign against either Donald J. Steinhardt or Donald J. Ciattarelli. It will be a very steep climb for either of them given how unpopular Trump is in the state.
  

THE BLUE WALL

• Pennsylvania: Gov. Tom Wolf (D) is term-limited, so this will be an open-seat election along with an open-seat election for senator, as Sen. Pat Toomey (R) is going to retire. Two top Democrats are certain to run: Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and AG Josh Shapiro. Probably they will agree not to compete with each other. Shapiro is likely to run for governor and Fetterman for the Senate. There will no doubt be competition for both of them, though. Two Trumpy Republicans, Rep. Mike Kelly and state Sen. Doug Mastriano, are very likely to run and may also make a deal about who runs for which job.
  
  
• Wisconsin: Gov. Tony Evers (D) has spent most of his first term at war with the state legislature over COVID-19 restrictions. If Ron Johnson really does retire from the Senate (see above), then there will be a hot race there as well. Former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch (R) is probably interested in one of the races and Rep. Sean Duffy (R) may go for the other one.
  
  
• Michigan: Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) faces a tough reelection race because Republicans have opposed everything she has done since she was elected, especially her coronavirus restrictions. The GOP primary will probably be competitive. Two-time senatorial loser John James (R) might give it a shot, but he won't be alone.
  
  
• Minnesota: Trump thought he would make Minnesota competitive. He didn't. Minnesota is to the Republicans what Texas is to the Democrats: always just out of reach. Gov. Tim Walz (D) will probably waltz to reelection since the Republicans don't have any A-list candidates here.
  
  
• Illinois: Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) will run for reelection but he is not a shoo-in. Illinois voters rejected an amendment to the state constitution he backed (and spent $58 million of his own money to support) that would have made state taxes more progressive. But Republicans need a candidate who can go megabuck-to-megabuck against billionaire Pritzker. One potential candidate is the owner of the Chicago Cubs, Todd Ricketts (R), whose brother, Pete (R), is governor of Nebraska. Still, Illinois is a fairly blue state, so Ricketts has to decide if he wants to drop $100 million or so and still probably lose.
  
  

PRIMARY PROBLEMS

• Georgia: Donald Trump is hopping mad at Gov. Brian Kemp (R) for not throwing all of Georgia's votes in the garbage and declaring that Trump won the state. Trump won't forget and is likely to back someone to primary Kemp. That someone is most probably Rep. Doug Collins (R), the Trumpiest Republican in the state. Whoever wins the contested primary will probably face Stacey Abrams (D) again. Now that she has registered tens of thousands of new voters and demonstrated that Georgia really is a purple state, she might be able to pull off in 2022 what she failed to pull off in 2018, especially if the Republicans have a knock-down, drag-out, really bitter primary.
  
  
• Ohio: Not all Republicans like Gov. Mike DeWine (R) due to his aggressive approach to the coronavirus, but the state is redder than Georgia and the Democrats don't have a deep bench here, so probably he'll get a second term.
  

THE NEW WEST

• Arizona: The Grand Canyon State went from dark red to bluish purple in 2 years; Joe Biden won the state and both senators are now Democrats. To make it worse, Gov. Doug Ducey (R) is term-limited, so it will be an open-seat election. The Republican primary could be full of fireworks because the soul of the Party is at stake. Among the GOP contenders are AG Mark Brnovich, Treasurer Kimberly Yee, and former Ducey chief of staff Kirk Adams. On the Democratic side, Rep. Ruben Gallego was going to run for the Senate seat now-Sen. Mark Kelly is sitting in. How did the Democrats get Gallego, a charismatic Latino, to drop out? Did they promise to support him for governor in 2022? Probably so. But Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D), who counted all those votes for Biden, is also likely to run, so there could be a battle.
  
  
• Nevada: Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) is the first Democrat to win the governorship in two decades. He is up for reelection. There are plenty of Republicans who want his job, including former state AG Adam Laxalt, former Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison, and former Sen. Dean Heller. It could be a messy primary.
  
  
• New Mexico: A lot of people thought Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) was going to get a cabinet post. She didn't. So the only Latina governor in the country will have to be content with trying to hang onto her job. She's popular and New Mexico generally reelects its governors. Besides, the Republicans don't have much of a bench here.
  
  
• Colorado: Gov. Jared Polis (D) is up in 2022, as is Sen. Michael Bennet (D). Both are in good shape and there are no obvious high-profile Republicans looking at either race.
  

BLUE-STATE REPUBLICANS

• Maryland: Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) is term-limited and besides, he may be looking at higher office. Lt. Gov. Boyd Rutherford (R), who is Black, is probably the Republicans' strongest candidate. But he has never been on the ballot on his own, and Maryland is very blue. Lots of Democrats are interested in the state's top job, including multiple representatives, but also state officials.
  
  
• Massachusetts: Gov. Charlie Baker (R) is allowed to run for a third term, but he hasn't said whether he will do so. If he doesn't, some Democrat is likely to get his job. Democratic pooh-bahs in the state want AG Maura Healey (D) to run. However, Harvard Prof. Danielle Allen (D), who is Black, has said she is running. If Baker declines to run again, plenty of other Democrats are likely to file as well.
  
  
• New Hampshire: Gov. Chris Sununu (R) has yet to decide if he wants a fourth 2-year term or intends to challenge Sen. Maggie Hassan (D), herself a former governor. If Sununu plays it safe and goes for a fourth term, he is a shoo-in. If he challenges Hassan, he is an underdog.
  
  
• Vermont: Gov. Phil Scott (R) is very popular because he kept the coronavirus in check for a long time, although it is now surging. Still, if he wants a fourth 2-year term, it is his for the taking. It's odd that a Republican can easily be elected governor of such a blue state, but Scott is as RINO as they come. Well, these days at least. If we go back in time 50 years, he'd be a standard-issue Rockefeller Republican.
  

THE SOLID SOUTH

• Alabama: Gov. Kay Ivey (R) became governor when then-governor Robert Bentley (R) resigned after his affair with a staffer came out. He was also arrested on charges relating to his trying to cover up the affair. Ivey ran in 2018 and was elected in her own right. Ivey is 76, and if she decides to run again, she will be elected again. It's as simple as that.
  
  
• Arkansas: Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) is term-limited so it will be an open seat. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, daughter of former governor Mike Huckabee, is considering running. So are Lt. Gov. Tim Griffin (R) and AG Leslie Rutledge (R). The Democrats will probably find a sacrificial lamb, but it doesn't really matter.
  
  
• Oklahoma: Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) will run for a second term and get it. End of story.
  
  
• South Carolina: Gov. Henry McMaster (R) may face a primary challenge from John Warren (R), who nearly beat him in 2018. No Democrat has been elected governor of South Carolina in two decades, and none will be in 2022.
  
  
• Tennessee: Gov. Bill Lee (R) has already announced that he will run again in 2022. Every Tennessee governor who ran for a second term in the past 40 years got it. Lee will too.
  

THE LEFTOVERS

• Kansas: Some states don't fit into a larger pattern. Kansas is one of them. Gov. Laura Kelly (D) won in 2018 because she faced firebrand Kris Kobach (R), who was too much even for Kansans to stomach. Against a normal Republican, Kelly will have an uphill climb. That normal Republican could be former governor Jeff Colyer, who lost to Kobach in the primary in 2018. State AG Derek Schmidt (R) could also run. Maybe Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (R) will run. He hasn't revealed his plans.
  
  
• Maine: Gov. Janet Mills (D) might face former governor Paul LePage (R), who couldn't seek a third term in 2018, but who might like his old job back.
  
  
• Alaska: Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) will probably run for reelection, and most likely win as any ambitious Democrat is more likely to go after Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) who might be vulnerable if Donald Trump hammers on her hard.
  
  
• Connecticut: Gov. Ned Lamont (D) is up for reelection. He hasn't done anything wrong and Connecticut is fairly blue, so he is the favorite.
  
  
• Rhode Island: Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) is term-limited, so the Republicans have a chance here. They do fairly well in Rhode Island, so this could be a competitive race.
  
  
• Iowa: Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) took over from Terry Branstad (R) when Branstad became ambassador to China. In 2018, she won election in her own right. Republicans did very well in Iowa in November, so maybe Iowa isn't swinging anymore and Reynolds could be safe.
  
  
• Oregon: Gov. Kate Brown (D) is term-limited, so the Democratic primary will be packed in this very blue state. The Republican primary will be much less packed, as no Republican has been elected governor of Oregon since 1982.
  
  
• Hawaii: Same as Oregon. Gov. David Ige (D) is term-limited and Republicans are an extinct species here. The Democratic primary could have multiple candidates and whoever wins it will be the next governor.
  
  
• Nebraska: Nebraska is the opposite of Hawaii. Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) is term-limited, so the GOP primary will be a big scramble and the Democrats will be lucky if they can find someone willing to lose.
  
  
• South Dakota: Gov. Kristi Noem (R) is all over the place: on Fox News, stumping for Republicans around the country, and visiting Trump in the White House. She might be interested in higher office in 2024, but first she has to get reelected in 2022. Shouldn't be that hard, though.
  
  
• Idaho: Gov. Brad Little (R) is a shoo-in for another term.
  
  
• Wyoming: So is Gov. Mark Gordon (R).
  

One issue that could affect all the races where an incumbent is running for another term is how the incumbent handled the coronavirus and how popular that was. This could even cut across party lines, since the virus was pretty much the biggest issue in 2020 and probably will be for the first half of 2021.

The Democrats' best pick-up opportunities are in Maryland, Georgia, and Arizona. The Republicans' best pick-up opportunities are in Kansas, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. (V)

Today's Senate Polls

Emerson has a slight Republican bias, so don't put too much stock in the small difference between the candidates. In the end, it is all about which party is better at turning out the faithful. (V)

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	Start	End	Pollster
Georgia	Jon Ossoff	49%	David Perdue*	51%	Dec 14	Dec 16	Emerson Coll.
Georgia-special	Raphael Warnock	49%	Kelly Loeffler*	51%	Dec 14	Dec 16	Emerson Coll.

* Denotes incumbent

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