Today Is Election Day

Even though this is an off-off year, there are still a number of important elections today. Here is a quick run-down of the biggest ones (more here):

• Virginia governor: This is the marquee race. It features Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D-VA), a moderate, against Ed Gillespie, a once-moderate Republican turned Trumpist who is running as a white grievance candidate, a platform he would never have dreamed of using 2 years ago. The polls are all over the place and there have been partisan polls with highly suspicious results published recently. A key takeaway from this election will be whether black voters and liberal voters from northern Virginia show up in large enough numbers to counteract the rural voters from the western and southern parts of the state. If Northam wins, especially if he wins big, Republicans will be much more cautious about running as Trump look-a-likes. If Gillespie wins, they will all do it.
  
  
• New Jersey governor: Former Goldman Sachs executive Phil Murphy is expected to beat Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R-NJ) in a landslide. If he doesn't, it will be a stunning upset. Guadagno has a great big fat albatross around her neck that looks just like Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ). That weight is simply going to be too much for her to bear. The race is important because if Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) is found guilty of corruption and decides to resign from the Senate, the new governor is going to appoint his replacement. Theoretically, if Menendez is found guilty in this week (the case went to the jury yesterday), he could resign immediately and let Christie appoint his successor. However, while Menendez may be corrupt, he is not stupid, and if Murphy wins, Menendez certainly won't resign until after Murphy is inaugurated.
  
  
• New York City Mayor: Mayor Bill de Blasio is running for reelection, which he will win in a landslide. Given the demographics of New York City, it is inconceivable that Republican Nicole Malliotakis could win. The only thing of interest here is how big is margin is.
  
  
• UT-03: Former congressman Jason Chaffetz retired in the middle of the year and this election will choose his successor. UT-03 being what it is, Provo Mayor John Curtis is expected to win big. Donald Trump won the district by 18 points, so Democrat Kathie Allen pretty much wasted her time even bothering to run.
  
  
• Virginia lieutenant governor: Virginia elects its lieutenant governor separately from the governor. Justin Fairfax (D), a former federal prosecutor, is running against state senator Jill Holtzman Vogel. This race is likely to mirror the governor's race.
  
  
• Virginia attorney general: Virginia Attorney General Mark Herring (D) wants another term. John Adams (R) would like the job as well. There hasn't been much polling on this race, but it is important because if Donald Trump pardons Paul Manafort for any and all federal crimes he has committed, Herring—if he wins—could indict Manafort for evading Virginia's income tax. Adams is unlikely to do so.
  
  
• Washington State senate district 45: If the Democrat in this race, Manka Dhingra, beats the Republican, Jinyoung Lee Englund, the Democrats will take control of the Washington state senate. They also have the assembly and the governor's mansion. In Oregon and California, they have all three. So a Dhingra win would give the Democrats total control of the West Coast from Mexico to Canada. They will almost certainly use this power in a coordinated way to fight Donald Trump on just about everything.
  
  
• Ohio's drug war: A ballot measure in Ohio would mandate that state agencies pay no more than the U.S. Dept. of Veterans Affairs pays for prescription drugs. The pharmaceutical industry has spent more than $58 million in an attempt to defeat the measure. If it passes, it will surely pop up in other states.
  
  
• Medicaid expansion in Maine: Maine is the only state in New England that did not expand Medicaid under the ACA. Now the voters will have their say. Gov. Paul LePage (R-ME) has blocked the expansion, but the voters could do an end run around him and pass it anyway.
  
  
• Seattle mayor: After Ed Murray resigned as mayor of Seattle, a election was called to replace him. Former U.S. attorney Jenny Durkan, a liberal Democrat, and activist Cary Moon, an even more liberal Democrat, are facing off today. The city is one of the most liberal in the country, and the new mayor could make it even more so.
  
  
• Detroit mayor: Few minority-majority cities have a white mayor, but Detroit is one of them, and Mike Duggan wants to keep his job, despite the city's serious financial problems. In the nonpartisan primary in August, Duggan beat the son of a former Detroit mayor and is the favorite to get to keep his job.

There are some other minor elections as well, including legislative elections in New Jersey and Virginia. One election that could have been held today but isn't is the senatorial election in Alabama in which Roy Moore is running against Doug Jones. Alabama does things its own way, so that election is Dec. 12 instead of on Election Day. (V)

Retirements Will Shape the New House

Quite a few members of the House have announced they will not run for reelection in 2018. The list includes 17 Republicans and 10 Democrats, excluding those seats for which a special election has already been held or will soon be held. Here is the list, including the reason the member is leaving.

It is still relatively early in the game and more retirements are likely.

Representative	Party	District	Reason
Lou Barletta	Republican	PA-11	Running for senator
John Delaney	Democratic	MD-6	Running for president
Charlie Dent	Republican	PA-15	Retiring from public office
Colleen Hanabusa	Democratic	HI-01	Running for governor
Jeb Hensarling	Republican	TX-05	Retiring from public office
John J. Duncan Jr.	Republican	TN-2	Retiring from public office
Lynn Jenkins	Republican	KS-2	Retiring from public office
Evan Jenkins	Republican	WV-3	Running for senator
Sam Johnson	Republican	TX-3	Retiring from public office
Rep. Kyrsten Sinema	Democratic	AZ-9	Running for senator
Raul Labrador	Republican	ID-1	Running for governor
Michelle Lujan Grisham	Democratic	NM-1	Running for governor
Rep. Marsha Blackburn	Republican	TN-7	Running for senator
Luke Messer	Republican	IN-6	Running for senator
Kristi Noem	Republican	SD-AL	Running for governor
Beto O'Rourke	Democratic	TX-16	Running for senator
Steve Pearce	Republican	NM-02	Runnign for governor
Jared Polis	Democratic	CO-2	Running for governor
Dave Reichert	Republican	WA-9	Retiring from public office
James Renacci	Republican	OH-16	Running for governor
Todd Rokita	Republican	IN-4	Running for senator
Jacky Rosen	Democratic	NV-3	Running for senator
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen	Republican	FL-27	Retiring from public office
Carol Shea-Porter	Democratic	NH-01	Retiring from public office
Dave Trott	Republican	MI-11	Retiring from public office
Niki Tsongas	Democratic	MA-3	Retiring from public office
Tim Walz	Democratic	MN-1	Running for governor

Over in the Senate, Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) and Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) are retiring. Rumor has it that Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) will also be calling it a day. (V)

GOP Shrugs Off Texas Shooting

On Sunday, 26 Texans were killed in the fifth-deadliest mass shooting in modern U.S. history. Following on the heels of #1 Las Vegas, that means we've got two of the top five in the last 30 days.

Normally, the pro-gun politician's playbook goes something like this: "thoughts and prayers" the day of the shooting, a few days of respectful silence, a day or two of talk about how this is really a mental health issue and that guns don't kill—people do, and then back to business as usual. This time, though, Congressional Republicans have skipped right from step one to step three, completely forgoing the days of respectful silence. The dead aren't even in the ground yet, and already prominent GOP officeholders are declaring that there's nothing to see here, and certainly nothing to be done here. "You know, it's hard to envision a foolproof way to prevent individual outrages by evil people," said Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). "Do you pass more laws when the laws that are on the books were likely violated? And would that have made a difference?" concurred Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-TX).

Politico has put together a helpful reference guide that illustrates how much money every member of the House of Representatives gets from the gun lobby (the Senate version is coming soon). From their data, it is clear that while there are certainly some gun-toting Democrats, the GOP is the party that is truly in the pockets of the NRA, et al. Of the 15 members who collected the most money from gun lobbyists during the 2016 election cycle, 15 are Republicans. Similarly, of the 27 members who have netted at least $100,000 from the gun lobby since 1990, 27 are Republicans. We're still double checking the math, but that appears to be 100% in both cases.

So, nothing is going to happen gun-wise while the GOP is running the show in the House. And if there were even the slightest doubt about that, we should recall that no legislation makes its way to the floor without the say-so of Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI). And who is the member that collected the most money from gun lobbyists during the 2016 cycle? Why, it's Paul Ryan, at $171,977. And who is the member that has collected the most over the course of their entire careers? Guess what, it's Paul Ryan again, at $336,597. Ryan's no fool, and neither are the people who run the NRA, so we can be quite confident that he will adhere to Huey Long's definition of an honest politician: One who, once he's bought, stays bought. Maybe something will be done on this front once the Democrats retake control, but don't hold your breath, because they like money too. (Z)

Was the Tax Bill Written Specifically Tailored to Donald Trump's Needs?

As the details of the Republicans' tax bill are seeping out, it almost looks like Donald Trump's accountant was the primary author of it, as so many provisions work especially well for him. Here is just a sample:

• The bill repeals the tax exemption for like-kind exchanges in which a company exchanges one asset for a similar one. Surprise! The repeal doesn't apply to real estate.
  
  
• The bill creates a special tax bracket of 25% for pass-through businesses. It just so happens that the Trump Organization is structured as something like 500 pass-through businesses. Trump could use this provision to avoid the top rate of 39.6%.
  
  
• The bill kills the alternative minimum tax. In the one year in which part of Trump's tax returns were leaked, the AMT hit Trump for $38 million. It would sure be nice if that pesky tax went away.
  
  
• The deduction for state and local income taxes will be no more if the bill passes in its current form. That would be painful for The Donald, who lives in high-tax New York. However, there appears to be a way out for him. Pass-through businesses, like his, can deduct state income tax as a business expense. Phew!
  
  
• Trump is a family man and loves his kids, especially daughter Ivanka. It would be a real pity if his estate had to pay estate tax, money that Ivanka and the other kids would get absent the tax. So the bill abolishes the estate tax.

In short, there are numerous provisions in the bill that would save Trump millions of dollars every year if it is enacted, not to mention hundreds of millions when he shuffles off this mortal coil. (V)

Dean: Kushner Is Going Down

Everyone's favorite parlor game in Washington these days—well, outside of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue—is trying to guess whom Robert Mueller will indict next. Maybe it's Carter Page, the Trump campaign worker who definitely took a trip to Russia in 2016, and conveniently forgot about his meeting with a government official while there? Or possibly it's one or both of Flynn & Son, who neglected to mention their work as foreign agents, particularly during the time that pops was still active-duty military? How about AG Jeff Sessions, who was awfully cozy with ambassador Sergey Kislyak, and who can't seem to speak to the Senate without people believing he perjured himself?

Former Vermont governor and DNC chair Howard Dean, who's still pretty dialed in, has picked his horse, and it's Jared Kushner. Actually, Dean thinks the Flynns might or might not go down first, but that eventually one of the little fish (Manafort, Gates, Papadopoulos, maybe Flynn Jr.) will sing like a canary and give up the goods on members of the Trump family. Kushner's the easiest place to start, since he's the most exposed, and then Mueller can start picking apart the clan from there.

If and when Kushner does get pinched—and he certainly does seem to be in grave danger—it will be very interesting to see how the President responds. On one hand, if a member of his immediate family gets taken down, he could go absolutely ballistic. Take his response to the Manafort indictment and maybe multiply by five or ten. On the other hand, report after report has suggested that The Donald is angry with his son-in-law. It could be that if he gets arrested, Steve Bannon gets on the phone and convinces the President that it's for the best. Either way, though, young Jared should probably be talking to his old man right now for tips on how to survive in the Big House. (Z)

Trump Undermined Bon Jovi NFL Bid

In 2016, Donald Trump was the beneficiary of an underground propaganda campaign, conducted by shadowy individuals who hid their true identities. This weekend, we learned that the presidential race was not the first time that has happened. In 2014, the President and rocker Jon Bon Jovi were in competition to buy ownership of the NFL's Buffalo Bills. Bon Jovi managed to effectively eliminate Trump from consideration, which left The Donald fuming. Shortly thereafter, a group of "fans" called 12th Man Thunder popped up; its primary purpose was to smear the musician and to convince anyone and everyone that he planned to move the football team to Canada. This caused the league's owners to turn against the Bon Jovi-led bid, and in the end the Bills were purchased by Terry and Kim Pegula. All of these things have been known for several years, but now we find out that 12th Man Thunder was a front run by the Trump organization in order to exact revenge for The Donald.

This is not a terribly important story per se, since—as with the cure for the common cold—scientists have yet to identify an actual Buffalo Bills fan. However, it certainly does illustrate, once again, the Machiavellian "ends justifies the means" approach that Trump utilized over and over again in his business career. And his insurance policy, whenever he got caught with his hand in the cookie jar, was his ability to use bluster and bravado and hordes of lawyers (along with the occasional bribe) to silence his accusers. It's entirely believable that he would have transferred the same sensibility to his political career, thinking in exactly the same way and encouraging others around him to do so, never quite grasping that politics is an entirely different game, and one where lawyers and bluster can't always secure a person that "get out of jail free" card Trump's always counted upon. This would certainly help explain why the President seems to be so surprised by the various Russiagate developments, and so adamant that he's done nothing wrong, because for the first five decades of his career, his approach to things was kosher. Or, at least, kosher enough. Not so much anymore, though. (Z)

Paul Clips Grass, Neighbor Kicks Ass

Some details about the assault that left Sen. Rand Paul on the sidelines with five cracked ribs became public on Monday. The perpetrator, far from being a random loon, was Rene Boucher—Paul's next-door neighbor and a former colleague, both having worked at the same hospital before the Senator launched his political career. Tensions between the two have been bubbling for years, apparently, as the libertarian Paul does not feel that the local government or the local homeowners association has any right to tell him what to do on his personal property, such as refrain from cutting the grass early in the morning. The Democrat Boucher thinks that they absolutely do have that right. Somehow, that difference of opinion culminated in Boucher blindside-tackling Paul as he got off his lawnmower following an early morning grass-trimming session.

From the narrative that has been presented thus far, it certainly appears that Paul was behaving like a jerk, as he is wont to do, but that he didn't do anything that justified assault. However, it is interesting to note that the Senator's camp is actively downplaying the whole situation, calling it an "unfortunate event." One wonders if Paul did not do more to provoke Boucher than just mow the lawn. Undoubtedly, more details will eventually come out. (Z)

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---The Votemaster and Zenger