Comey: After Reviewing New Emails, Clinton Will Not Be Charged

FBI Director James Comey took a tremendous amount of heat for announcing a new batch of Clinton's emails only 11 days before the election. In a desperate effort to save his job, late yesterday he announced: "Based on our review, we have not changed our conclusions that we expressed in July." Whether this will cancel out the effect of the Oct. 28 announcement will never really be known, unless some pollster calls up a bunch of people after tomorrow and reads this script:

Hello. This is the Foobar polling company. I have a few questions I'd like to ask you:

• Who were you planning to vote for before the FBI Director said he had found more of Clinton's emails?
• After his letter, but before Nov. 6 when he said there would be no charges, who would have voted for?
• Who did you actually vote for?

Don't count on any pollster running this poll, though.

Politically, Clinton's team is saying that Comey has simply confirmed what she has been saying all along: There is nothing new in the emails found on Anthony Weiner's laptop except duplicates of her old emails and more pictures of his lap. Trump's campaign is saying Comey's second announcement proves that the system is rigged, after all. (V)

Clinton Continues to Lead in the Electoral College

As you can see from our Electoral vote graphs page, at no time during the entire year has Donald Trump led Hillary Clinton in the electoral college. Here is the graph, including all the states that are within the margin of error:

If we count all states, Clinton is leading 317 to 221, although if she wins Nevada, as expected, that becomes 323 to 215. If we exclude the 11 states that are within the margin of error, the score is Clinton 237 to Trump 161. So it is certainly possible for Trump to pull this one out of the fire, but he would need to win nearly all the close states. (V)

National Polls Give Clinton a Small Lead

Three new national polls released yesterday give Hillary Clinton leads of 1 point, 5 points, and 5 points, respectively, for an average of 3.7 points. Here are the numbers:

Sponsor	Pollster	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein
Investor's Business Daily	TechnoMetrica	45%	44%	5%	2%
WSJ/NBC	(Not stated)	48%	43%	6%	2%
Washington Post/ABC News	Abt-SRBI	48%	43%	4%	2%

With a lead of almost 4 points, it is almost certain that if these numbers hold, she will also win the Electoral College. (V)

Prediction Models Agree that Clinton Will Beat Trump

We don't deal in probabilities here because that only makes sense when you can repeat the experiment to validate the model. If a weather forecaster predicts an 80% chance of rain tomorrow, the forecaster can be rated by looking at the most recent 100 times that the prediction was 80% chance of rain and see if it indeed rained on about 80 of them. With elections that doesn't work, so we just stick to looking at the state polls. Based strictly on state polls, it looks as though Clinton will win tomorrow.

Nevertheless, other election forecasters do deal in probabilities, which always involves some model, and the models differ. The simplest model looks at the state polls and runs a Monte Carlo experiment. For example, if a poll says Hillary Clinton is going to get 47% ± 4% in Florida, on each run a number is chosen from the range 43% to 51% either uniformly or according to a Gaussian (normal) distribution. This is done for each state based on the polls of that state and the electoral votes are tallied for that run. Then a million runs are made and the fraction of runs in which she gets 270 electoral votes is called the probability that she wins. But even in this model, there are many choices to be made. Does only the last poll count? How about the last three polls or the last week of polls? Are the pollsters weighted for past performance? Is a uniform or Gaussian distribution used? Are other factors used? The wide varieties of choices the modelers make account for the differences in predictions. That said, here are some current predictions.

Predictor	Chance Clinton wins
FiveThirtyEight	65%
New York Times	84%
Daily Kos	87%
PredictWise	89%
Huffington Post	98%
Princeton Election Consortium	99%

All the models say Clinton will win, but the range is 65% to 99%. This rather broad spread, with FiveThirtyEight the outlier, has been the source of much commentary in recent weeks. And the commentary reached something of a fever pitch this weekend, when the Huffington Post's Ryan Grim slammed FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver, accusing the polling guru of "unskewing" polls in Trump's favor, through what Silver calls a "trend line adjustment." Grim writes that, "He may end up being right, but he's just guessing. A 'trend line adjustment' is merely political punditry dressed up as sophisticated mathematical modeling." Grim thinks that Silver is motivated to overstate Trump's chances because (1) A horse race drives traffic to the site, and (2) Silver was embarrassed by messing up on Trump's nomination, and doesn't want to get caught with his pants down again in case of a close contest. Silver was not happy about this criticism, and took to Twitter Saturday night to defend himself in four-letter terms, and then made a more PG-rated Sunday appearance on "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" to reiterate the point.

Grim is certainly right about one thing (see below), but otherwise he's probably overstating the case. Silver isn't pulling his numbers from thin air (as the original unskewer, Dean Chambers, was). The results that the FiveThirtyEight model produces are, as the New York Times' Josh Katz points out, primarily the product of two major assumptions that Silver has made. The first is that his model is ultra-sensitive to daily changes in the polls (aka "shiny object chasing"). The second is that his model assumes that shifts in one state tend to result in equivalent shifts in similar/neighboring states (aka "correlation"). This means that the FiveThirtyEight model would be expected, for example, to change rapidly in response to James Comey's announcement 11 days ago (as it did). And it will likely change rapidly again, now that Comey has said there was nothing on the laptop.

Katz, for his part, is mildly critical of the choices Silver has made, explaining that the Times prefers to be a bit more conservative. Princeton's Sam Wang—who has done battle with Silver before—is a bit more critical, arguing that FiveThirtyEight's model likely double-counts swings in polls. Vox's Andrew Proskop, by contrast, defends Silver's approach.

As we note above, these aren't the only assumptions and decisions that a pollster makes. And this brings us to the part that Ryan Grim is 100% correct about: Polling is a science, yes, but it also incorporates a fair bit of art. Anyone who suggests otherwise (as Silver is sometimes wont to do) is not being 100% forthright with the audience. (V & Z)

Betting Markets Say Clinton Will Win

While the polls lag behind the news, the betting markets are real time. The instant important news appears, bettors can place or sell bets so this might give a more up-to-date picture, although in the past, betting markets have gotten it wrong on occasion. Here is what some of the betting markets say:

Market	Chance Clinton wins
Iowa Election Markets	69%
PredictIt	81%
Election Betting Odds	82%
Paddy Power	83%
William Hill	83%

Here the range is narrower than what the mathematical models say, but again, Clinton is the strong favorite. (V)

Trump's Aides Block His Twitter Access

Scared to death of what Donald Trump might tweet in the final two days, his top aides cut off his access to his Twitter account. Today and tomorrow, all of his tweets will be carefully written by his campaign staff, most likely by campaign manager Kellyanne Conway. Trump's rallies are also much more scripted, with him reading his speech from the dreaded teleprompter. All of this is intended to make him look like a more conventional candidate, or at the very least preventing him from causing even more damage to his campaign just as Election Day approaches. (V)

Reid's Machine Could Be the Deciding Factor in the Election

It could very well be that Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)'s parting gift to the Democratic Party is the state of Nevada. Reid has built a powerful political machine in the Silver State and it is running full blast now. Reid's power comes from his incredible ground operation, especially getting Latinos to vote in unprecedented numbers. In 2008, Latino turnout was 15% of the electorate. In 2012 it was 18%. This year it is likely to be at least 20%. Latinos favor Hillary Clinton over Trump by at least 4 to 1, maybe more. Early voting has just concluded in Nevada, and Clinton has a lead of 73,000 votes. With so many votes already cast, Trump is going to have to win the vast majority of the votes cast on election day, and there is no evidence that any such thing will happen.

A side-effect of Reid's machine is that it may propel the person he wants to succeed him in the Senate, Catherine Cortez Masto, to victory. The argument to the Latino voters (that she would be the first Latina in the Senate) may prove irresistible. Reid's effort is not exactly rule from the grave since he is still the Senate minority leader, but it could be quite a last hurrah. (V)

Is Michigan in Play?

In 2012, Mitt Romney made a desperate last-ditch effort to win Michigan, a state that his father once governed, but it didn't do him any good. This year, Donald Trump is also doing a Hail Mary in the Wolverine State. Hillary Clinton visited Grand Rapids just two days after she spoke in Detroit, and Bill is going to visit Michigan today. But these visits could be just to trick Trump into wasting his time on a lost cause. Democrats have done precisely that before. In 2012, former Pennsylvania governor Ed Rendell practically begged Barack Obama to campaign in Pennsylvania, saying he could lose the state. In response, Romney made an futile effort in Pennsylvania in the final months. Obama won the state by 5 points and Rendell knew very well that it was never in danger. Feigning weakness to get your opponent to waste time and resources is an old trick but it still works. (V)

Libertarian Veep Candidate Weld Kinda, Sorta Endorses Clinton

The Libertarian candidate for vice president, William Weld, defended Hillary Clinton again and said she has been receiving a "raw deal." He said she is "a perfectly reputable, professional, responsible candidate for president of the United States and deserves to be treated as such." He also said that Donald Trump is "totally unfit to be president." (V)

Pope Francis Kinda Endorses Clinton, Too

The Pope has not been shy about sharing his opinions this election season, referring repeatedly to Donald Trump and/or his ideas as "unchristian." For those who forgot, however, Francis delivered a speech on Saturday reiterating his views. Railing against "false prophets," the Bishop of Rome declared:

Walls that enclose some and banish others. Walled citizens, terrified on one side, excluded, exiled, and still more terrified on the other. Is that the life that our Father God wants for their children? Dear brothers and sisters—all walls fall. All of them. Do not be fooled.

Trump was not mentioned by name, but the Vicar of Christ's message was nonetheless crystal clear. (Z)

Judge Says that RNC Is Not Working with Trump

Normally it is a forgone conclusion that a presidential candidate's party is working closely with the candidate. Not this year, in the case of the Republicans, and now it is official, according to U.S. District Court Judge John Michael Vazquez of New Jersey. The case in question goes back to the early 1980s, when the RNC hired armed off-duty police officers wearing arm bands reading "Ballot security task force" to "patrol" (English translation: intimidate) minority voters. After the election the RNC signed a consent decree not to do this any more. But Donald Trump has called for volunteer monitors to "watch" (English translation: intimidate) minority voters. The legal question Vazquez faced was whether the RNC consent decree covers Trump.

At the hearing on Friday, the DNC argued that Trump and the RNC were working together, so the consent decree covered Trump as well. The RNC lawyer, Bobby Burchfield, asked the DNC if it was "really contending that the RNC has control over Donald Trump? That would be a newsflash." In an unusual weekend ruling, Vazquez said that Trump was not working with the RNC and so the consent decree did not apply to him. As a consequence, he is free to ask volunteers to monitor polling places, as long as they obey all state and federal laws. (V)

The Nine Races that Will Determine Control of the Senate

While the presidential race has sucked nearly all the oxygen out of the air, the Senate is also up for grabs. We have a map and run-down of each race on our Senate page, but here is a quickie rundown, listed in order of most likely to flip to least likely. Incumbents are marked with an asterisk.

State	Democrat	Republican	Notes
Illinois	Tammy Duckworth	Mark Kirk*	Duckworth is the very heavy favorite
Wisconsin	Russ Feingold	Ron Johnson*	Feingold is ahead by about 3 points and is the favorite
Pennsylvania	Katie McGinty	Pat Toomey*	If Clinton wins big in Pennsylvania, meet Sen. McGinty
Indiana	Evan Bayh	Todd Young	Bayh is well known but Todd is attacking mercilessly
Nevada	Catherine Cortez Masto	Joe Heck	If Latino turnout is high, we will have a Latina senator
North Carolina	Deborah Ross	Richard Burr*	With three high-profile races in NC, it is a muddy tossup
New Hampshire	Maggie Hassan	Kelly Ayotte*	If Clinton wins big here, she'll pull in Hassan
Missouri	Jason Kander	Roy Blunt*	Kander made the best ad of the year, but Blunt still leads
Florida	Patrick Murphy	Marco Rubio*	It would take a massive Clinton win to save Murphy

If Hillary Clinton wins the White House, the Democrats need to flip a net of four seats to control the Senate and give Vice President Tim Kaine something to do all day; if Donald Trump wins, the Democrats need a net pickup of five. The Hill has more on the Senate today.

Politico also has a story on the Senate, and concludes that the Democrats are the slight favorites to capture the Senate despite the $37 million the conservative Senate Leadership Fund has poured into the most competitive races in the past 2 weeks.

On the House side, the expectation is that the Republicans will lose something like a dozen or more seats, but will maintain control of the lower chamber. Democrats need to flip 30 seats to take over. (V)

Today in Donald Trump Takedowns

More than a few people have written articles excoriating Donald Trump, but few of them have known The Donald for 30 years, and are as skilled a writer as Graydon Carter. In this month's issue of Vanity Fair, Carter shares a number of Trump anecdotes for his readers' amusement.

For example, Carter has firsthand experience with Trump's approach to women. As a gag (that Trump was not in on), Carter invited The Donald to join Vanity Fair's table at the White House Correspondents dinner. The billionaire was seated next to model Vendela Kirsebom, who came to Carter in tears after just 45 minutes, complaining that Trump spent the entire time evaluating women's body parts, and describing him as "the most vulgar man I have ever met."

Less serious, but equally unsurprising, is the story of the time that Carter was working for Spy magazine and conducted a little experiment. He sent checks for $1.11 to 58 well known, wealthy people. Those who cashed the checks got a second check for 64 cents, and those who cashed those got a check for 13 cents. Only two people received and cashed the final checks: arms trader Adnan Khashoggi and Donald Trump.

It's worth reading, if for no other reason than a laugh or two. (Z)

Wikileaks Makes Another Dump

Apparently, cutting off Julian Assange's Internet access was not enough to stop Wikileaks from releasing more material. On Sunday, they made what is presumably their last dump of the campaign, unleashing another 8,000 DNC emails, to bring the total to 50,000.

The people behind Wikileaks may be good hackers (or, at least, they may know good hackers). And they may be good at rabble rousing. But if their goal was to disrupt the election, they've done just about as poor a job as can be imagined, given the resources at their disposal. Their first error was one of timing; they released the first batch of e-mails in the midst of p***ygate, and have maintained a steady stream of releases since then. This is an excellent way to minimize the impact of your first blow, and then to cause people to lose interest. Their second error is, for want of a better term, a lack of focus. If they had been wise, they would have curated the emails, so as to draw attention to the juiciest and most nefarious messages. Instead, it's a mass of stuff, with the juicy e-mails mixed in with forwarded jokes, and baby pictures, and spam, and birthday greetings, and other detritus.

There's no doubt that the Wikileaks e-mails had some impact, at least in the short term. But when the postmortems begin on Wednesday, they are going to be way down the list of things that shaped this election. (Z)

Today's Presidential Polls

To hear SurveyMonkey tell it, Donald Trump's rust belt strategy is working, since they believe he's keeping it close in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and is ahead in Ohio. We'll soon know if they are right. We don't believe the closenss of the Nevada poll as too much of the early voting campaign occurred during the poll and it went strongly for the Democrats. In addition, Nevada and Alaska are very difficult states to poll because a large fraction of the population is transient. Also keep in mind that SurveyMonkey is an Internet poll sponsored and supervised by NBC. We have to hope that NBC is really keeping close tabs on SurveyMonkey to make sure the sample is valid and the corrections are proper. We are a bit nervous, but earlier this year we decided to count all polls from major media outlets, so to keep our promise, these go into the database. (Z & V)

State	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Start	End	Pollster
Alaska	31%	47%	13%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Alabama	36%	54%	6%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Arkansas	34%	55%	6%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
California	56%	30%	7%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Colorado	43%	39%	11%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Connecticut	51%	37%	7%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
D.C.	88%	7%	2%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Delaware	49%	39%	7%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Florida	45%	45%	4%	Nov 02	Nov 04	YouGov
Florida	47%	45%	5%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Georgia	45%	45%	6%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Hawaii	52%	29%	9%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Iowa	37%	47%	9%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Idaho	29%	47%	7%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Illinois	52%	35%	7%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Indiana	35%	52%	10%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Kansas	36%	48%	10%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Kentucky	35%	53%	6%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Louisiana	38%	52%	4%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Massachusetts	56%	29%	7%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Maryland	60%	29%	6%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Maine	47%	39%	7%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Michigan	44%	42%	8%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Minnesota	46%	37%	10%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Missouri	40%	48%	8%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Mississippi	41%	50%	4%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Montana	31%	53%	10%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
North Carolina	48%	41%	7%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
North Dakota	29%	57%	10%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Nebraska	34%	52%	8%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
New Hampshire	49%	38%	6%	Nov 03	Nov 06	U. of New Hampshire
New Hampshire	49%	38%	8%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
New Jersey	53%	37%	4%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
New Mexico	40%	36%	16%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Nevada	44%	43%	10%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
New York	51%	34%	5%	Nov 03	Nov 04	Siena Coll.
New York	58%	31%	5%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Ohio	42%	45%	8%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Ohio	45%	46%	3%	Nov 02	Nov 04	YouGov
Ohio	48%	47%		Oct 27	Nov 05	Columbus Dispatch
Oklahoma	32%	56%	10%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Oregon	51%	35%	7%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Pennsylvania	47%	42%	6%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Rhode Island	49%	36%	7%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
South Carolina	44%	46%	6%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
South Dakota	31%	53%	12%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Tennessee	40%	49%	6%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Texas	42%	47%	6%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Utah	31%	34%	6%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Virginia	49%	39%	7%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Vermont	60%	27%	6%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Washington	51%	34%	7%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Wisconsin	44%	43%	7%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
West Virginia	27%	57%	8%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey

Today's Senate Polls

Not too many surprises here, though if Ron Johnson really does pull it out in Wisconsin, it will be one of the great comebacks in recent memory, and will also be a serious disappointment for the Democrats. We are also suspicious of Missouri. Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO) has been a bit ahead all year, but this poll puts Jason Kander ahead by 8 points. Seems fishy to us. (Z)

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	Start	End	Pollster
Alaska	Ray Metcalfe	32%	Lisa Murkowski*	57%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Alabama	Ron Crumpton	37%	Richard Shelby*	58%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Arkansas	Conner Eldridge	42%	John Boozman*	55%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Arizona	Ann Kirkpatrick	45%	John McCain*	50%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
California	Kamala Harris	51%	Loretta Sanchez (D)	32%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Colorado	Michael Bennet*	51%	Darryl Glenn	45%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Connecticut	Richard Blumenthal*	62%	Dan Carter	25%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Florida	Patrick Murphy	44%	Marco Rubio*	47%	Nov 02	Nov 04	YouGov
Florida	Patrick Murphy	49%	Marco Rubio*	48%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Georgia	Jim Barksdale	41%	Johnny Isakson*	47%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Hawaii	Brian Schatz*	67%	John Carroll	29%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Iowa	Patty Judge	39%	Chuck Grassley*	56%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Idaho	Jerry Sturgill	36%	Mike Crapo*	58%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Illinois	Tammy Duckworth	56%	Mark Kirk*	39%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Indiana	Evan Bayh	43%	Todd Young	52%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Kansas	Patrick Wiesner	38%	Jerry Moran*	58%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Kentucky	Jim Gray	46%	Rand Paul*	51%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Maryland	Chris Van Hollen	64%	Kathy Szeliga	33%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Missouri	Jason Kander	51%	Roy Blunt*	43%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
North Carolina	Deborah Ross	47%	Richard Burr*	44%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
North Dakota	Eliot Glassheim	24%	John Hoeven*	73%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
New Hampshire	Maggie Hassan	49%	Kelly Ayotte*	45%	Nov 03	Nov 06	U. of New Hampshire
New Hampshire	Maggie Hassan	50%	Kelly Ayotte*	41%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Nevada	Catherine Cortez-Masto	49%	Joe Heck	46%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
New York	Chuck Schumer*	67%	Wendy Long	25%	Nov 03	Nov 04	Siena Coll.
New York	Chuck Schumer*	71%	Wendy Long	25%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Ohio	Ted Strickland	37%	Rob Portman*	58%	Oct 27	Nov 05	Columbus Dispatch
Ohio	Ted Strickland	39%	Rob Portman*	52%	Nov 02	Nov 04	YouGov
Ohio	Ted Strickland	39%	Rob Portman*	57%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Oklahoma	Mike Workman	38%	James Lankford*	60%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Oregon	Ron Wyden*	64%	Mark Callahan	32%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Pennsylvania	Katie McGinty	50%	Pat Toomey*	45%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
South Carolina	Thomas Dixon	39%	Tim Scott*	58%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
South Dakota	Jay Williams	31%	John Thune*	64%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Utah	Misty Snow	36%	Mike Lee*	60%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Vermont	Patrick Leahy*	75%	Scott Milne	24%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Washington	Patty Murray*	59%	Chris Vance	37%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey
Wisconsin	Russ Feingold	48%	Ron Johnson*	49%	Oct 31	Nov 06	SurveyMonkey

* Denotes incumbent

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