News from the Votemaster

Republican Party Rejects Trump's Unity Appeals

After Hillary Clinton gave up in June of 2008, we witnessed the spectacle of PUMA (Party Unity My Ass) voters who said they would never vote for Barack Obama. Most of them ended up doing so. Now the Republican Party is dealing with PUMA politicians—people who are rejecting Donald Trump and his plea to unify the party behind him. Both President Bushes as well as Jeb Bush have said they won't support him. Neither will Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) or Mitt Romney. Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) said he can't support Trump at this time. Numerous other Republican elected officials have also said they have no interest in taking a ride on the Trump bandwagon. A number of senators have said they are "too busy" to come to the Republican National Convention. Here is a list of Republican politicians and where they stand on Trump.

All of this unwillingness to support the party leader is unprecedented. To make it worse, many of the top Republican donors are not going to pitch in, focusing on the Senate and House instead. As a consequence, Trump Is going to face a difficult situation in the fall. If the donors don't come around, Trump will have a serious money shortage during the campaign and will be outspent in the general election by a wide margin.

Trump has responded to being rejected by Republican leaders by saying: "I think it would be better if it were unified, I think there would be something good about it, but I don't actually think it has to be unified." That is certainly an unusual take on the possibility that large numbers of Republicans won't vote for him. (V)

Trump is Previewing His General Election Strategy

Now that Cruz & Co. are in the rearview mirror, Donald Trump is able to focus all of his attention on Hillary Clinton. And, after his usual careful and judicious consideration of his options, he has made a totally unexpected decision to go negative. In what might be called a shotgun approach, he's firing with both barrels, perhaps to see what sticks. In just the last 48 hours, he's declared that Clinton wants to abolish the Second Amendment, invoked Bill Clinton's impeachment, and denounced Hillary as a "nasty, mean enabler" of her husband's affairs.

Trump has rewritten the rulebook in this election cycle, so maybe he knows best, but generally speaking, this is not a wise approach. To keep the gun metaphor going, it is better to fire with a rifle than a shotgun—one or two particularly salient criticisms that can really stick with voters rather than a laundry list. Think John Kerry, flip-flopper, or Mitt Romney and the 47%. In addition, a candidate generally wants to conserve his or her bullets until a time when firing them will actually matter. Overusing a line of attack now could cause it to become tiresome, and to fall on deaf ears once September or October rolls around. When was the last time anyone talked about Benghazi, for example? Again, it's certainly possible that Donald Trump is going to show everyone how to run a 21st century campaign. But it's also possible that he's just going to demonstrate how to engineer a defeat of Biblical proportions. (Z)

Trump Quite Unpopular with Foreign Leaders

In case there was any doubt that Donald Trump might not be the United States' best choice from a foreign policy perspective, the world's leaders are happy to clarify the matter. For example, former Mexican president Vicente Fox sat for an interview with the Los Angeles Times on Friday and declared that Trump should scare both Mexicans and Americans, while also comparing The Donald to Hugo Chavez and Juan Peron. Following a nasty election, the newly-anointed Muslim mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, lambasted his opponents (including Prime Minister David Cameron) on Saturday and accused them of using tactics "straight out of the Donald Trump playbook." Meanwhile, Thomas Mulcair—leader of Canada's New Democratic Party, has blasted Trump as "a fascist."

So, that's America's closest ally and her two neighbors. And it doesn't stop there, of course. In fact, the Washington Post has helpfully compiled a list of 47 unflattering things that foreign leaders have said about The Donald. Among the critics are Cameron, Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa, Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei, Germany's Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel, Pope Francis, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Israeli opposition leader Isaac Herzog. If Trump is indeed going to "Make America Great Again," it would seem he's not going to get a lot of help from abroad. (Z)

Media Hosts Never Challenge Trump When He Lies

When most politicians are caught telling lies by various media fact checkers, they generally stop telling the lies that earned them "Four Pinocchios" from the Washington Post or "Pants on Fire" from Politifact. Donald Trump is not like that. He continues to repeat lies over and over, long after they have been debunked. What is most amazing, however, is that television hosts almost never challenge him when he does so. The WaPo has compiled a kind of hall of infamy of 26 of his biggest lies. Again, it is unprecedented for a candidate to lie over and over, be caught at it, and not have interviewers call him out when he tells the same lie again. (V)

How Did the Media Miss So Badly on Trump?

That's the $64,000 question, and one that many a pundit is trying to answer. Eric Boehlert, writing for MediaMatters, has taken a stab at an answer in an interesting and provocative essay.

Boehlert's first point is that the media tend to think of the American political spectrum as being essentially in balance, with the two parties serving as mirror images of each other. This way of looking at things rests on an assumption that the Democrats and Republicans are thus equidistant from the political center. However, this has not been the reality in recent years, as the GOP has fallen increasingly under the control of fringe elements. Only by recognizing this would it have been possible to understand that a fringe candidate like Trump might overtake centrists like Jeb Bush and Gov. John Kasich (R-OH).

His second observation is that charges of "media bias" have made reporters skittish and unwilling to be critical of the GOP. Again, if they had been more willing to call a spade a spade, they might have come to a fuller appreciation of the current state of the Republican Party. Instead, writes Boehlert, there was a "collective, years-long turning of a blind eye."

Whether Boehlert is correct or not, one thing is certain: This election is going to give the political scientists and media analysts material to work with for years. In that way, it will rival 1960, 1932, and 1896. (Z)

Clinton and Trump Tied in Georgia

While polls of the general election this early don't mean a lot, one poll that has gotten some attention is one of Georgia that shows Trump at 42% and Clinton at 41%. Other polls have shown close races in Arizona, Mississippi, and Utah. A lot can change between now and Election Day, but early polls in these states in 2012 weren't close at all. They were all blow-outs for Mitt Romney. As more and more of these polls pile up, it may be time to consider the possibility that some deep red states may possibly be in play. (V)

Clinton Wins Guam

The U.S. territory of Guam held a Democratic caucus yesterday and Hillary Clinton won. She got 60% of the vote to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)'s 40%. With only seven delegates at stake, Clinton is likely to get four to Sanders' three. Guamanians don't get to vote in the general election, so see you in 2020, Guam. (V)

Warren May Remake the Senate in Her Image

While Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) has refused to make an endorsement in the presidential race, she is enormously active in many Senate races, especially on the fundraising front. She is one of the best Democratic fundraisers and is clearly going to spend the next six months trying to get more liberal Democrats elected to the Senate. She is working especially hard for four women: Kamala Harris (CA), Tammy Duckworth (IL), Maggie Hassan (NH), and Catherine Cortez Masto (NV). As other states choose their Senate nominees, she is going to spring into action for them as well. Katie McGinty (PA) is certain to get her help in the months ahead, as will Deborah Ross (NC), Patty Judge (IA), and Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ).

If Warren can help all eight of these women win, she will not only boost the number of Democratic women in the Senate to 20, but she will command a loyal following and become one of the top power brokers in the Senate, possibly rivaling the presumed new Democratic leader, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY). With such prospects possibly ahead of her, it is unlikely that she would accept the vice presidential nomination if it were offered. As vice president, she would have no power at all, but in the Senate she would be the most powerful woman ever in the upper chamber. (V)

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---The Votemaster