Clinton Ahead of Sanders in New California Poll

Polling of Tuesday's Democratic primary has been all over the map. Today we have a new poll that may explain some of the variance. Here are the results of the LA Times poll:

California
Rank	Candidate	Pct.
1	Hillary Clinton	49%
2	Bernie Sanders	39%

The poll results hold for likely voters. When unlikely voters are added to the mix, Sanders leads 44% to 43%. This curious result suggests that if everyone voted, Sanders would win, but many of his supporters are unlikely to vote, which could lead to a convincing win by Clinton. To make things more complicated, several hundred thousand Californians who think they are independents actually registered for the American Independent Party by mistake and will receive an American Independent Party ballot, not a Democratic Party ballot. In addition, people who have registered as "no party preference" are entitled to vote in the Democratic primary, but they have to explicitly request a Democratic Party ballot. Not all of them know this and it could affect the race significantly since Sanders has done well with independents all year. (V)

Scholars Say Trump Could Threaten Rule of Law

Legal experts, including conservative ones, are afraid that the election of Donald Trump could threaten the rule of law in the United States. When Donald Trump attacked federal Judge Gonzalo Curiel (who was born in Indiana) as a "Mexican" for making public documents in the Trump University fraud case, law professor David Post, who writes for the conservative-leaning Volokh Conspiracy blog said: "This is how authoritarianism starts, with a President who does not respect the judiciary." Georgetown law professor Randy Barnett, who architected the first challenge to "Obamacare" said: "You would like a President with some idea about constitutional limits on presidential powers, on congressional powers, on federal powers and I doubt he has any awareness of such limits." Ilya Shapiro, a lawyer with the libertarian Cato Institute said: "Who knows what Donald Trump with a pen and phone would do?" In short, even conservative lawyers and law professor are worried that Trump would just trample the Constitution and the law to achieve his goals. He might just ignore court rulings and just do what he wants to and that would be the end of democracy in America. When the criticism comes from conservative lawyers, there is a problem here. (V)

Not All Trump Supporters Are Blue-Collar Men

While many of Donald Trump's supporters are men without college degrees, there are also minority voters who like him. They resist the notion that they don't know what they are doing and reject the idea that he is racist. They see in him a man who loves his country so much that he is willing to do what it takes to defend it, including build a wall to keep foreigners out, challenge China's power, and bring jobs back to America. They say this is what America needs. Some immigrants also back him, saying that he clearly understands the difference between legal and illegal immigrants, something other politicians seem not to. Other minority supporters are sick and tired of how Washington works and thinks it will take someone of Trump's stature to clean out the Augean Stables. Yet other minority voters feel that America is going downhill and are attracted to Trump's slogan of "Make America Great Again." (V)

There Is No Trump 2.0

Chris Cillizza in the Washington Post has pointed out what really should be obvious to everyone: There will not be a kinder, gentler Donald Trump 2.0. He is not going to pivot to the center. He is not going to erase the Etch-A-Sketch. What you see is what you get. From Trump's point of view, when he started his campaign every political expert thought he was some kind of joke, yet he won the Republican nomination convincingly, beating out half a dozen serious senators and governors who were a lot more experienced than he. Why should he now believe all the experts who were so wrong for so long and change who he is? It makes no sense to him, so expect Trump to continue to act like he has been acting all along. There will not be a new, improved version. (V)

Foreign Policy Experience Doesn't Move the Voters

This year's presidential election is probably going to pit someone with a massive amount of foreign policy experience, Hillary Clinton, against someone who knows nothing about it, Donald Trump. Does that put Trump at a disadvantage? History says no. Put simply, voters don't care much about foreign policy.

In 2008, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), a long-time member of the Senate Armed Services Committee who had a distinguished military career before he entered politics, faced a freshman senator named Barack Obama who knew nothing about foreign policy. Obama won. In 2000, Al Gore, who had traveled the world for eight years as vice president, faced George W. Bush, who had rarely been out of Texas. Gore barely won the popular vote, but lost the electoral vote. In 1992, Bill Clinton, whose foreign policy experience was close to zero faced George H.W. Bush, who had just won the Gulf War and who said his dog Millie knew more about foreign policy than Clinton. Clinton won. 1988 was an exception. George H.W. Bush, whose resume was as long as your arm, including stints as Director of the CIA and Ambassador to China, beat Michael Dukakis. But in 1980, Jimmy Carter, who had 4 years of experience running U.S. foreign policy lost to Ronald Reagan, who had no foreign policy experience at all. In 1976, Jerry Ford, who served for 20 years in the House, then as vice president, then as president, was beaten by a peanut farmer from Georgia. And there are numerous other examples going back further that show the candidate with the most foreign policy experience often loses. The voters really don't value it. (V)

Clinton and Trump Both Hate the Media, but in Different Ways

Neither Hillary Clinton nor Donald Trump likes the media, but they show it in very different ways. Clinton refuses to hold press conferences and tries hard to avoid answering reporters' questions. But in her speeches, she praises the media, says it is doing a good job and notes that a free press is essential for democracy to function. Trump, on the other hand, constantly disses the media and calls reporters "slime," "scum," "disgusting," and "bad people." But he holds a press conference at least once a week and will allow anyone with a tape recorder to interview him. (V)

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---The Votemaster and Zenger