More Decorated Veterans Excoriate Trump for Criticizing a Gold Star Family

Khan-gate is still roiling the waters. Yesterday, a bipartisan group of decorated combat veterans, members of Congress, and families of slain soldiers condemned Donald Trump for his attacks on the parents of a U.S. solider who was killed in Iraq. A letter from 11 Gold Star families said that his comments about the Khan family were repugnant and personally offensive. It went on, demanding that Trump apologize to the Khans and all Gold Star families. So far, there is no sign that Trump intends to back down.

Many of Trump's critics are Republicans, so he can't brush this off as partisan sniping. Sarah Palin's son-in-law, Dakota Meyer, a 2011 Medal of Honor winner and active Republican, called on Trump to apologize. Even Trump's first major political supporter, Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ), is now saying Trump's remarks were inappropriate. The Veterans of Foreign Wars also rebuked Trump in forceful language.

For Trump, the worst part is that the people he is targeting, blue-collar workers, tend to be very patriotic. While they may not understand all the details of Trump's tax plan, they do understand that he is being disrespectful to a fallen soldier's family. That is one of the few gaffes that could actually hurt him, especially if the Democrats bring it up over and over during the fall campaign. (V)

Trump Spokeswoman Blames Obama for Humayun Khan's Death

The Trump campaign is trying desperately to shift blame for the Khizr Khan mess to anyone besides The Donald. To that end, Trump spokeswoman Katrina Pierson was on CNN on Tuesday with Wolf Blitzer, and she declared that the real culprits here are President Obama and Hillary Clinton, for heartlessly ordering the mission that led to Humayun Khan's death.

There are a number of problems with this thesis, but the most obvious one is this: Khan died in 2004, when Obama was still an Illinois state senator and Clinton was the junior U.S. senator from New York. Twitter users had a field day with this, with the hashtag #KatrinaPiersonHistory being used 30,000 times in the six hours after the interview, as users "blamed" Obama for the sinking of the Titanic, the bombing of Pearl Harbor, the outbreak of the Black Plague, and the assassination of JFK.

As a businessman, presumably Donald Trump knows something about cutting your losses. The wisest course of action, at this point, would be to apologize to the Khans. That's very un-Donald-like, though, so the next best choice would be to shut up, and stop talking about the subject until the furor dies down. Instead, every day, Trump or some surrogate does something to keep the story alive. Tomorrow will mark the one week anniversary, which is an eternity in the news business. Meanwhile, one cannot help noticing that Hillary Clinton has been largely absent from headlines this week, except for the occasional goading of Trump. She knows that one of the most fundamental rules of politics is that when your opponent decides to shoot himself in the foot (or maybe the hair), you just be quiet and let him do it. (Z)

Trump Got Five Draft Deferments to Stay Out of Vietnam

One of the side stories related to Khan-gate is a closer examination of Trump's military record—or more specifically, lack thereof. A new report shows that Trump got no fewer than five draft deferments so he didn't have to serve and go to Vietnam when he was of draft age. His first one was an educational deferment, which he got in 1964 while he was studying at Fordham University. When he transferred to the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, he got three more educational deferments. Finally, after he graduated, he got a 1-Y deferment because he had heel spurs. Over time, the condition got better all by itself but Trump kept the 1-Y status until 1972, when he was classified 4-F and permanently disqualified for service. (V)

Trump "Receives" a Purple Heart

Donald Trump may not have served in Vietnam, or in the military at all, but he now has a Purple Heart—in a manner of speaking. At a rally on Tuesday, Lt. Col. Louis Dorfman handed over his medal to The Donald as a gift, telling him, "I have such confidence in you." Trump's reply, which he related to the crowd: "I always wanted to get the Purple Heart. This was much easier."

Obviously, Trump has no control over what he is given as gifts. However, his response may not have been the best choice—voters already upset about the Khan family fiasco may find his remarks to be a bit flippant and disrespectful. Already, Hillary Clinton and Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) have called him out on it, with Duckworth tweeting a picture of herself wearing her Purple Heart in the hospital after she lost both of her legs in a helicopter crash, and observing, "This is how one usually looks when you are awarded the Purple Heart. Nothing easy about it." Khizr Khan also weighed in, insisting that Trump return the medal immediately.

At the same rally, Trump stepped in it a second time. An infant began to cry, and he said, "I love babies. I hear that baby cry, I like it." But then, moments later, he changed his mind and declared, "Actually I was only kidding, you can get the baby out of here. I think she really believed me that I love having a baby crying while I'm speaking." So, that's another item off our list of sacred cows from yesterday. Now that Trump has gone after veterans, veterans' families, firefighters, and children, presumably Jesus, or pet dogs, or pet dogs named Jesus will be next. (Z)

Trump Refuses To Endorse Ryan or McCain

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) are both fighting in difficult primaries, but Donald Trump refuses to endorse either one. He did say that he was giving it serious consideration, though. In Ryan's case, Trump specifically said, "I'm not quite there, yet"—obvious payback for Ryan's having said the same thing about Trump last month. Ryan's primary is next Tuesday, so if Trump needs another week to figure it out, it won't help the Speaker much. McCain's primary is at the end of August. It is not clear that Trump's endorsement means a lot, but this whole situation shows that the Republican Party is far from unified two weeks after the national convention, and that Trump seems to be as concerned with score settling as he is with winning the election or governing. RNC Chair Reince Priebus was reportedly apoplectic over Trump's treatment of Ryan. Priebus had little control over the Party's choice of candidate (and would have given his eyeteeth for 700 superdelegates), but he does control the RNC's money, data, and volunteers—The Donald could find all three in short supply come crunch time.

One of the consequences of the ongoing fracture in the Republican ranks is that almost no Republicans want to campaign with Trump. Politico asked about 50 Republican candidates if they were interested in campaigning with The Donald and nearly all said no. Some gave "scheduling conflict" as the excuse (even before a date was suggested), but many just gave a definitive "no." Liesl Hickey, who served as the NRCC's executive director in 2004, is circulating a memo to congressional candidates entitled "How to survive in 2016." High on the list of pointers was distancing themselves from Trump. She also says they should take a stand on Trump based on what their constituents want, not what party leaders or anyone else wants.

On the Democratic side, it is quite different. Of the 50 Democrats Politico contacted, half said they would be happy to campaign with Hillary Clinton. Only two, one in Utah and one in Indiana, gave a definitive "no" as the answer. Clearly experienced politicians perceive Trump as a lot more toxic than Clinton, despite her negatives. (V)

The Walls: Red, White, and Blue (and Pink)

On this site, we have regularly referred to the Democrats' "Blue Wall"—the bloc of 242 electoral votes that Hillary Clinton (or any Democrat) essentially has in the bank these days before the campaign even begins. A reader wondered about what the equivalent "Red Wall" looks like. This seems a useful point to consider, so we have put these four tables together:

The Blue Wall State EVs Streak D.C. 3 D-13 Minnesota 10 D-10 Hawaii 4 D-7 Massachusetts 11 D-7 New York 29 D-7 Oregon 7 D-7 Rhode Island 4 D-7 Washington 12 D-7 Wisconsin 10 D-7 California 55 D-6 Connecticut 7 D-6 Delaware 3 D-6 Illinois 20 D-6 Maine 4 D-6 Maryland 10 D-6 Michigan 16 D-6 New Jersey 14 D-6 Pennsylvania 20 D-6 Vermont 3 D-6 Total EV:  242

The Swing States State EVs Streak New Hampshire 4 D-3 Colorado 9 D-2 Florida 29 D-2 Iowa 6 D-2 Nevada 6 D-2 New Mexico 5 D-2 Ohio 18 D-2 Virginia 13 D-2 North Carolina 15 R-1 Indiana 11 R-1 Total EV:  116

The Pink Wall State EVs Streak Arizona 11 R-4 Arkansas 6 R-4 Kentucky 8 R-4 Louisiana 8 R-4 Missouri 10 R-4 Tennessee 11 R-4 West Virginia 5 R-4 Georgia 16 R-5 Montana 3 R-5 Total EV:  78

The Red Wall State EVs Streak Alabama 9 R-9 Mississippi 6 R-9 South Carolina 9 R-9 Texas 38 R-9 Alaska 3 R-12 Idaho 4 R-12 Kansas 6 R-12 Nebraska 5 R-12 North Dakota 3 R-12 Oklahoma 7 R-12 South Dakota 3 R-12 Utah 6 R-12 Wyoming 3 R-12 Total EV:  102

The Blue Wall, of course, is shown to the left, while the Red Wall is shown to the right. The other two tables show the true swing states, and the "Pink Wall" (a term we made up) of states that have been reliably Republican, but not for as long as the Red Wall states. There is no equivalent "Turquoise Wall" for the Democrats. The "Streak" column shows how many consecutive times the state has gone that direction—so, R-9 means nine straight victories in that state for the Republicans; D-6 means six straight victories in that state for the Democrats. The shading of the states' boxes reflects their current status—for example, polls have the swing state of Iowa leaning Republican (so, it's shaded pink) while they have the swing state of New Mexico going solidly Democratic (so, it's shaded blue).

A few observations:

• It is evident how much of a hole Donald Trump, or any present-day GOP presidential nominee, begins with. The Blue Wall is 242 EVs, while the Red Wall is well less than half of that. Even if we grant the GOP the Pink Wall states, they still trail by 62 electoral votes right out of the gate.
  
  
• The obvious result of the above point is that Clinton has many more paths to victory than Trump does. In fact, the New York Times has done a visual representation of all the various paths, considering just the 10 most competitive states. Specifically, they calculate that there are 889 different combinations that lead to a Clinton win, compared to just 127 for Trump, along with 8 possibilities ending in a tie. The Times' numbers highlight, in particular, how important Florida is to Trump. If the Democrats take the Sunshine State, then Clinton has 506 paths to victory, while Trump is reduced to just 5. Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia are almost as essential.
  
  
• If Utah does go Democratic, which is unlikely but possible, it will be one of the most stunning results in recent electoral history. The only equivalent since the 1960s would be Bill Clinton's win in Arizona in 1996. But for that, Arizona would be R-16.
  
  
• Given his roots, Trump has hinted he will make a run at New York and/or New Jersey. If he spends two minutes or two dollars campaigning in either of those places, he is wasting his time and/or money.
  
  
• These streaks are heavily affected, of course, by overwhelming victories. The entire Pink Wall represents states that have been largely Republican since the 1960s, but that Southerner Bill Clinton managed to pick off at least once during his two runs for the White House. The D-6s and D-7s are reminders of Ronald Reagan's electoral success, with the D-7s being the ones that Reagan could win but George H.W. Bush could not. The R-12s are all states that "Landslide Lyndon" Johnson managed to grab when he swamped Barry Goldwater in 1964.

So, there you have it. Before Donald Trump can start building an actual wall along the Mexican border, he's got a big, blue metaphorical wall to overcome first. (Z)

Clinton Outraised Trump in July

Hillary Clinton announced yesterday that she pulled in $63 million in July, her largest monthly haul ever. A joint committee that raises money for her and for the DNC pulled in another $26 million, making the total almost $90 million. Donald Trump already said that he raised $36 million in July. (V)

DNC Shakeups Continue

Debbie Wasserman Schultz was the first DNC official to get forced out on account of the Wikileaks email dump, but not the last. On Tuesday three others, the DNC's CEO Amy Dacey, Communications Director Luis Miranda, and CFO Brad Marshall, all got the boot. In one of the leaked emails, Marshall suggested that Sanders doesn't believe in God. Sanders is nominally Jewish but never goes to synagogue and has never said he believes in God, so Marshall might well be right. But in modern-day America, while candidates can be black, female, or gay, God forbid one of them is an atheist. That is the worst slur there is, so Marshall had to go. We may not yet have seen the end of this. More DNC heads may roll soon. (V)

Jill Stein Names Her Running Mate

Presumptive Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein has picked her running mate: Ajamu Baraka, an international human rights scholar and activist. Baraka has taught political science at several colleges and worked with Amnesty International to uncover human rights violations.

It seems like an odd choice, though. No doubt Baraka has a stellar record on human rights, but were Stein elected president, Baraka would be a heartbeat away from the Oval Office. One can legitimately ask if he is qualified for the job. At least James Stockdale was a vice admiral (you get extra credit if you don't have to look him up). (V)

Today's Presidential Polls

Today we have a very suspicious poll from a new Arizona pollster, OH Predictive Insights, showing Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump in the Grand Canyon State. We are very skeptical about this poll, but the stated methodology—a robopoll of a random sample of 2012 general election voters—is a valid way to do a poll, so we will include it. Nevertheless, Democrats should avoid breaking out the champagne and Republicans should not cry in their beer quite yet. It might be correct but let's wait until an established pollster surveys the state before drawing any conclusions (V).

State	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Start	End	Pollster
Arizona	45%	42%	4%	Aug 01	Aug 01	OH Predictive Insights

Today's Senate Polls

Pennsylvania continues to be very close and could ultimately be the state that determines which party controls the Senate in 2017. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg endorsed Toomey yesterday (after this poll was conducted), so that might help him a bit. Bloomberg likes Toomey for the senator's courageous stands on gun control, Bloomberg's #1 issue. Toomey has often bucked his party and fought for gun-control legislation. (V)

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	Start	End	Pollster
Pennsylvania	Katie McGinty	41%	Pat Toomey*	42%	Jul 29	Jul 31	PPP

* Denotes incumbent

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---The Votemaster and Zenger