News from the Votemaster

Candidates Move to New York

For the Republicans, the next event is the New York primary. For the Democrats, there is a caucus in Wyoming tomorrow, which Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is sure to win, but the real next prize is New York. Both of the front runners, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, lost in Wisconsin and the media is all a-flutter with stories about how their campaigns are in trouble. Both are now actively campaigning in New York and both are expected to win, at which time the media will be all a-flutter with stories of how they are back on track again.

Trump should rebound easily. A Monmouth poll just showed him with 52%. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is going to have extreme problems in New York because evangelical Protestants are in short supply in the state and also because people haven't forgotten his earlier remarks about "New York values." Clinton has won New York three times, twice as a Senate candidate and in 2008 as a presidential primary candidate. If either Trump or Clinton were to lose New York, it would be disastrous for them. Sanders, in particular, is going to be constantly confronted with the interview he did with the New York Daily News editorial board, in which he flubbed some questions, making it easier for Clinton to beat him. (V)

Conservatives Are Pushing for Mike Lee to Fill Scalia's Seat

Top conservatives are trying to get Donald Trump to agree to nominate Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) to the Supreme Court if Trump is elected President. Trump has said that he will soon release a list of 10 to 12 names from which he would choose. Lee is extremely conservative and Ted Cruz's best (really, only) friend in the Senate. In the event of a Cruz victory, Lee is a very likely nominee.

Key Republican senators are already privately talking about abolishing the filibuster if a Republican is elected President and the Republicans hold the Senate. If the Democrats capture both the White House and the Senate, they may also consider abolishing the filibuster, or at least forcing the Republicans to actually talk on the floor of the Senate nonstop. (V)

More People Are Struck by Lightning than Commit In-person Voter Fraud

The Wisconsin law requiring Photo ID had a dramatic effect on voting in the Badger State in this week's primary. Lawmakers who voted for it said that it was needed to combat in-person voting fraud. Rep. Mark Pocan (D-WI) countered with: "More people are struck by lightning than commit in-person voter fraud by impersonation." Politifact has looked at Pocan's statement and concluded that it is true. In Texas, for example, based on actual cases of voter fraud and lightning strikes, the chance of being hit by lighting was about 1 in a million whereas the chance that a voter is committing fraud is 1 in 18 million.

Nationally, about 267 people per year are struck by lightning, of which 33 are fatal. The number of cases of in-person voter fraud from 2000 to 2014 is 31, or about 2 per year, an order of magnitude less than the number who die of lightning strikes per year. (V)

GOP Leaders Hate Cruz but Desperately Need Him

The only way Donald Trump can be stopped from grabbing the Republican nomination out from under the noses of the party leaders is for Ted Cruz to beat him in many of the remaining primaries, just as he did in Wisconsin this week. They are dependent on him, but still hate him. It puts them in an awkward situation. Could they nominate someone they loathe? Rich Lowry, editor of the National Review makes the interesting point that few of the delegates at the convention know Cruz personally and don't understand why he is so unpopular with his Senate colleagues, namely, that he is impossible to work with. But for better or worse, unless Cruz does well in the remaining states, Trump will win enough delegates to take the nomination on the first ballot. (V)

Clinton Blows it in Philadelphia

No, not her. Him. During a speech on Thursday, Bill Clinton was interrupted by Black Lives Matter protesters. They attacked him for the 1994 crime bill he signed while in office, declaring that the bill's provisions—particularly the imposition of a federal "three strikes" law—are responsible for today's high incarceration rates. It's an argument with some merit, as indicated by the fact that both Clintons have recently repudiated the measure. Despite that, the former president lost his cool, and went on the defensive. He directed an extended harangue at the protesters, one that made use of such phrases as "gang leaders who got 13-year-old kids hopped up on crack."

Given the extent to which Hillary Clinton is depending on black votes, this was a particularly egregious error on Bill's part. He has long had a reputation as the most gifted politician of his generation, but maybe the magic is now gone, since this is hardly his first blunder of the campaign. Indeed, it was little more than a week ago that he lamented "the awful legacy of the last eight years," which certainly seems like a swipe at President Obama. The problem has gotten bad enough that Slate's Michelle Goldberg wrote a column wondering exactly what is wrong. He secretly doesn't want Hillary to win? His hearing has gone bad? His memory is failing? Whatever the case may be, Goldberg's conclusion is damning: "Hillary should shut him down. She can't divorce him, but she can fire him." Any more days like Thursday, and she may do just that. (Z)

Can the Democrats Survive the Clinton-Sanders Breach?

The Democratic side of the presidential contest has turned extra-testy this week, after more than a month of simmering tensions and talk of "Bernie or Bust." WaPo wants to know if the Party will be able to recover once general election season hits. So, they talked to a wide range of Democratic insiders to get their opinions. The two main themes that emerge: (1) The majority blame Sanders for the recent negative turn, and (2) The wounds will definitely heal by November.

Sanders, for his part, is sticking to his guns. He appeared on "Late Night With Seth Meyers" Thursday, said he did not regret his declaration that Clinton is unfit to be president, and also blamed her for starting the spat. However, later in the day on the CBS Evening News, Sanders said he would "certainly support" Clinton if she is the nominee. Since Clinton would undoubtedly do the same (having supported Barack Obama after being defeated in 2008), it seems that the Party will indeed reunite during general election season. (Z)

Obama Chomping at the Bit

President Obama was in Los Angeles Thursday, conducting his second fundraising tour of the city in the last month. He's also passed the hat in San Francisco, Washington, D.C., and Texas. He is reportedly eager to begin campaigning for the Democratic candidate "with some zest," but can't do so until the nominee is set.

Obama is remaining on the sidelines in order to let the process play out without exerting an undue influence. With that said, it's hardly a secret which way he's leaning. While en route to L.A. Thursday, Obama—through a spokesman—weighed in on Hillary Clinton's fitness for the presidency, declaring that she is undoubtedly qualified, and that "Secretary Clinton comes to this race with more experience than any other non-vice president in recent campaign history." Perhaps Hillary's former boss can make up for some of the damage that her husband is doing to her campaign. (Z)

Sessions Would Like to Be Trump's Veep

Yesterday, Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL), the only senator who openly supports Donald Trump, was asked if he might be Donald Trump's running mate. He said: "I think that would not happen. I have not talked with him about it." This is Senate-speak for "I would like very much to be on the ticket." Trump has said he would like to choose an established politician who could walk into the Senate and make deals with the senators. The betting Website Paddy Power lists the top five possible Republican Veep picks (with their odds). They are: Gov. John Kasich (3/1), Gov. Chris Christie (4/1), Gov. Nikki Haley (5/1), Jeff Sessions (9/1) and Susana Martinez tied with Marco Rubio in fifth place (10/1).

Paddy Power also is taking bets on the size of Trump's manhood when standing at attention. If the answer is not revealed by the end of the year, the bets will be voided. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time any major betting firm has offered this kind of market for a presidential candidate. (V)

Giuliani Would Like to Be Trump's Attorney General

Yesterday former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani announced that he was going to vote for Donald Trump in the New York primary on April 19. This is the most polite way for a politician to announce that if The Donald and his country call him, he is prepared to sacrifice his lucrative consulting career and serve in Trump's cabinet, presumably as attorney general. (V)

Maryland Senatorial Primary Shows a Racial Divide

The battle between Rep. Donna Edwards (D-MD) and Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) for the seat of retiring Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) has been well documented. Van Hollen is a white, establishment candidate and Edwards is a black insurgent. The race is highly polarized along racial lines with whites supporting Van Hollen 2-to-1 and blacks supporting Edwards 3-to-1. All in all, Van Hollen leads by a very small margin, 44% to 40%. (V)

McConnell Is Taking Sides in Indiana Senatorial Primary

Sen. Dan Coats (R-IN) is retiring, and there is a spirited battle between the main Republican candidates who would like to succeed him. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) supports Rep. Todd Young (R-IN). McConnell's super PAC has reserved $230,000 worth of ad time in support of Young's candidacy. Young's opponent is Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-IN), a tea party candidate and member of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus who voted against John Boehner as Speaker. McConnell is (1) afraid Stutzman is too conservative to win, even in Indiana, and (2) not at all interested in getting another Ted Cruz in the Senate.

McConnell is all too aware that in 2012, then-senator Richard Lugar of Indiana was defeated in a primary by tea party insurgent Richard Mourdock, who later went down in flames in the general election, and he is not looking for a repeat performance. (V)

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---The Votemaster