News from the Votemaster

Senate Races 2014

While the 2014 election is almost 2 years away, one fact stands out right now: There are 20 Democratic Senate seats up for election and only 13 Republican seats. Furthermore, In a way, 2014 will be even tougher for the Democrats than 2012 was, although ultimately they picked up two seats then. Their problem is that the Republicans up for reelection are almost all from deep red states, like Mississippi, Oklahoma, Texas, and Wyoming, which Democrats have almost no chance of winning. Other than Maine, a blue state with a Republican senator, Susan Collins, the only possibility of a Democrat winning a deep red state is a horrible, bloody Republican primary won by a tea party candidate who then proceeds to say something that alienates large numbers of women, as Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock did. All the Democrats can do to aid this process is spend money in the Republican primaries to try to defeat the incumbent and nominate a tea party candidate.

In contrast, the Democrats have vulnerable incumbents in a number of red states, including Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, and South Dakota, and somewhat vulnerable candidates in other states like North Carolina and West Virginia. It is conceivable that Democrats could lose as many as six seats, and thus their control of the Senate. In addition to the many vulnerable candidates, in midterm elections, young Democrats and minorities tend not to vote, making the problem worse. Nevertheless, in politics, 2 years is forever.

The Democratic-held seats are listed below, in alphabetical order by state, with the Republican ones coming up a future posting.

Alaska

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mark Begich (D)	(R)	Mark Begich, the former mayor of Anchorage, was personally recruited by then-DSCC chairman Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), even though he had to face then-Sen. Ted Stevens, the longest sitting Republican in Senate history. Stevens was convicted of several felony violations a week before the election, but lost by only 1-point. Stevens' convictions were later thrown out by Attorney General Eric Holder, but by then it was too late. While Stevens won't try to get his old job back (he died in 2010), if Sarah Palin is the Republican nominee, she would be the favorite in this very red state.

Arkansas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mark Pryor (D)	(R)	In 2002, Mark Pryor defeated incumbent senator Tim Hutchinson by 7 points and became so popular the Republicans didn't bother to field a candidate against him in 2008. He is unlikely to be so lucky in 2014. Former governor Mike Huckabee might go for the GOP nomination as could one of the three Republican congressmen, Rick Crawford, Timothy Griffin, or Steve Womack.

Colorado

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mark Udall (D)	(R)	Colorado is trending Democratic and the Republicans don't have an obvious candidate, so Udall is probably safe.

Delaware

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Chris Coons (D)	(R)	Chris Coons had the pleasure of running against Christine "I am not a witch" O'Donnell in a 2010 special election to fill the Senate seat vacated by Joe Biden when he became Vice President. He won't be so lucky this time, but Delaware is a very blue state and the Republicans have no bench at all there, so he can serve another five or six terms if he wants to.

Illinois

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Dick Durbin (D)	(R)	Dick Durbin is majority whip, the second most powerful position in the Senate. He is also from a very blue state, Illinois. If he wants a fourth term, it is his for the asking.

Iowa

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Tom Harkin (D)	(R)	Tom Harkin will be 75 years old 2 weeks after the 2014 election, so he might retire, but he is one of the most liberal senators and is unlikely to quit now that the Senate has become more liberal than it has been in years. He won his previous five Senate elections with ease and is likely to win his sixth one if he tries.

Louisiana

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mary Landrieu (D)	(R)	Mary Landrieu could be in for a hard time in 2014. Lousiana is a deep red state and many black Democrats left the state in the wake of Hurricane Katrina and never returned. Nevertheless, she managed to win in 2008 and has fought hard for the state. Working in her favor is that the Landrieu name is well known in Louisiana. Her father, Moon Landrieu, was mayor of New Orleans, a post now occupied by her brother Mitch Landrieu. Gov Bobby Jindal (R-LA) would be a formidable opponent, but most people think he is going to run for President in 2016 rather than senator in 2014. Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) might run. Despite the redness of the state, Landrieu is still a slight favorite at this point due to her long incumbency and the popularity of her father and brother.

Massachusetts

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
John Kerry (D)	(R)	John Kerry wants to be Secretary of State in the worst way, but if President Obama has other ideas about that job, Kerry will run for the Senate again in 2014 and 2020 and subsequent years until the cows come home, and keep winning.

Michigan

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Carl Levin (D)	(R)	Carl Levin will be 80 on election day in 2014. After six full terms in the Senate, he might call it quits, but as chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, he has a lot of power. The other senator for Michigan, Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), who is not as well known or powerful as he is, just won reelection by 21 points in a state Barack Obama won by 10 points. While not as Democratic as, say, Illinois, it is Democratic enough that Levin is a near shoo-in if he runs and another Democrat would be the favorite if he doesn't.

Minnesota

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Al Franken (D)	(R)	Al Franken beat then-senator Norm Coleman in 2008--a Democratic wave year--by just 312 votes after six months of legal wrangling following the election. As a former professional comedian, some people were worried he would spend his time in the Senate shooting off one liners at the Republicans. But he held his tongue, kept his head down, and played the role expected of a junior senator. His Senate colleague, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), just won a 34-point landslide in this blue state. While Franken is not likely to repeat that feat, unless the Republicans can pull a rabbit out of the hat, Franken is likely to win reelection. One conceivable opponent might be Rep. Michele Bachmann. If she is the GOP nominee, it will be an epic battle. Against Bachmann, Franken has at least a shot at beating Klobuchar's 34-point margin

Montana

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Max Baucus (D)	(R)	Max Baucus is a moderate Democrat in a state that votes for Republicans in presidential elections but has a long history of voting for Democrats at the state level. He will be 73 at the start of a potential seventh term, but he is currently chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, which writes the nation's tax laws. People rarely give up that kind of power voluntarily. Also, that position means there are a whole lot of people who want to be his friend, so he can raise all the money he needs, which is not much given how well he is known and how cheap Montana television time is. The one point an opponent might try to hit him with is his 2009 recommendation of Melodee Hanes for U.S. Attorney, at a time when Hanes was his girlfriend. She subsequently withdrew and got a job with the Justice Dept. Hanes became Baucus' third wife in 2011.

New Hampshire

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jeanne Shaheen (D)	(R)	New Hampshire is about as friendly to female politicians as you can get. Both senators, both representatives and the the incoming governor are all women. Shaheen is well known in the state, having served two terms as governor before being elected to the Senate in 2008. Unless the Republicans can find an exceptionally strong candidate, she is probably safe in this quirky, but more blue than red, state.

New Jersey

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Frank Lautenberg (D)	(R)	The big question about Frank Lautenberg is whether he will run for reelection. He already retired once and could retire again. He served in the Senate from 1982 until 2001 and then retired. But the 2002 Democratic senatorial candidate, Robert Torricelli, got enmeshed in a corruption scandal and the party managed to force him out. Then it pleaded with Lautenberg to run again and he did. He was reelected again in 2008. If he runs in 2014, he will be reelected easily. The only problem is that he will be 2 weeks shy of his 96th birthday at the end of another term. Even by Senate standards, that is getting on in years, although former senator Strom Thurmond celebrated his 100th birthday in 2002 while a sitting senator (in a wheelchair because he was unable to stand). If Lautenberg retires, Newark mayor Cory Booker might run and there are several Democratic representatives who might go for it.

New Mexico

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Tom Udall (D)	(R)	Tom Udall is a mere stripling at 64. He has won two elections as New Mexico Attorney General, five as a congressman, and one as a senator. New Mexico has long since ceased to be a swing state and has become a deep blue state, so this seat is Udall's as long as he wants it. He comes from a very political family. His first cousin, Mark Udall is senator from Colorado, his uncle, Morris Udall, is a congressman from Arizona, and he is also related to Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) and to former Oregon senator Gordon Smith.

North Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Kay Hagan (D)	(R)	Kay Hagan beat then senator Elizabeth Dole in the Democratic wave year of 2008 by 8 points, but she was helped a lot by a disastrous ad run by Dole accusing Hagan of taking money from the Godless Americans PAC. The ad was so over the top, that it became a major campaign issue. She won't be so lucky this time, but of course she is now an incumbent in this swing state. North Carolina has no shortage of representatives and statewide officers who might challenge her.

Oregon

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jeff Merkley (D)	(R)	Jeff Merkley won a very narrow victory over then-senator Gordon Smith in 2008. In his first term as a senator, he has been a high-profile progressive and one of the leaders of the fight to abolish the filibuster in Jan. 2013. Oregon is a liberal state, and a young (56), progressive, with clear left-of-center positions on many issues, shouldn't have any trouble coasting to reelection.

Rhode Island

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jack Reed (D)	(R)	Jack Reed is a low-profile guy who avoids the media and concentrates on service to his constitutents. They apparently like that since they elected him to his third term in the Senate in 2008 by a margin of 57% over his Republican challenger, the same margin he got in 2002. No matter who the Republicans nominate, he'll win by more than 50% in 2012.

South Dakota

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Tim Johnson (D)	(R)	Tim Johnson had prostate cancer in 2004 and a cerebral hemorrhage in 2006 while doing a live radio interview. However, he came back fighting and his constituents appreciated that, giving him 63% of the vote in the 2008 general election. Nevertheless, if the Republicans field a strong candidate, he could argue that the state needs a senator who can give 100% for the state. The most likely Republican candidates are Rep. Kristi Noem (R-SD) and former governor Mike Rounds. Both could give Johnson a real battle in this deep red state. This state is one the Republicans' best pickup opportunities.

Virginia

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mark Warner (D)	(R)	Multimillionaire Mark Warner, the former governor of Virginia, has announced that he intends to stay in the Senate and not enter the open race for the governor's mansion in 2013. Former governor Tim Kaine (D) just won a decisive Senate victory over former Republican senator George Allen who was trying for a comeback. No doubt the Republicans will find a strong candidate in this purple state, but Warner's popularity and ability to self fund the race, makes him the clear favorite.

West Virginia

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jay Rockefeller (D)	(R)	Jay Rockefeller, who will be 77 on election day 2014, has served five terms as senator. He might decide that is enough and retire. However, if he decides to go for a sixth term, he will be a strong candidate, even though he has been less than enthusiastic about promoting coal, a major industry in West Virginia. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, daughter of former West Virginia governor and former felon, Arch Moore, has announced that she is running for the Republican senatorial nomination. On the day she announced a bevy of conservatives immediately attacked her for being too liberal, even though she is by far the best known Republican in the state. If Rockefeller runs and Capito is bloodied in a primary, he will probably win again. If Rockefeller decides to call it a day after 45 years in politics, Gov. Earl Tomblin (D-WV), is the most likely Democratic candidate.

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---The Votemaster