Romney Wins Illinois by 12%     Permalink

As predicted by the polls, Mitt Romney coasted to an easy victory in the Illinois primary yesterday besting his nearest rival, Rick Santorum, by 12%. He also won at least 41 of the 54 delegates at stake. While this was a nice win for Romney, it is still noteworthy that despite outspending Santorum 7 to 1 statewide and more than 20 to 1 in Chicago, Romney was still unable to get 50% of the vote. He is incredibly lucky that he is running against three pitbulls, none of whom has a chance and none of whom is willing to let go. Here are the results.

Romney's inability to get to 50% in a competitive race and his weakness in the South will keep Santorum in the race. The next state to vote is Louisiana, on Saturday, where Santorum is expected to win, just as he did in Alabama and Mississippi. This gives him some rationale for continuing although his chances for getting the nomination are close to nil. Newt Gingrich, in contrast, not only has no chance at the nomination, but also no rational reason for continuing. Nevertheless, he will probably keep going unless he runs out of money, the usual reason candidates drop out.

Once we get past Louisiana on Saturday, the calendar for April looks good for Romney. D.C., Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware, New York, and Rhode Island all vote then and all have Romney-friendly demographics. Santorum's home state of Pennsylvania also votes in April. Santorum has to win that to be taken seriously in May. The one state that is likely to be a big battleground in April is Wisconsin.

In May, the tables are turned and more conservative states get to vote, including Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Nebraska, Arkansas, and Kentucky. Possibly Texas will vote on May 29, but this is not certain yet due to an ongoing battle in the courts over its redistricting plans. The only state voting in May that looks like Romney can win easily is Oregon.

Maine Senate Race Candidates Now Known     Permalink

The filing deadline for competing for the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) has now passed and the picture is getting a little bit clearer. On the Democratic side, four Democrats have filed, none of them top contenders. It is likely that the national Democratic Party will refrain from helping the winner of the June 12 primary, and take its chances that independent Angus King will win and caucus with the Democrats, just as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) does. King was formerly a Democrat and while he might be willing to join a caucus full of Eisenhower Republicans, there are none of them left in the Senate. He is definitely not a tea party type but will probably stay mum on which party he will caucus with because Mainers have a soft spot for independents.

Maine Republicans probably also believe that King would caucus with the Democrats and thus are going to go all out to field and support a strong candidate. Their plans to hold the seat are complicated, however, by the fact that three current holders of statewide office, as well as three others, are competing in the primary. The candidates include Attorney General William Schneider, state Treasurer Bruce Poliquin, Secretary of State Charlie Summers, state senator Debra Plowman, and former state senator Richard Bennett. It is likely to be a messy primary. Maine is a very blue state, however, and in the absence of a serious Democrat, the still-popular former governor, King, is favored to win.

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