Romney Expected to Win Illinois Primary Today     Permalink

So far, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum have split the vote in the Midwest, with Santorum taking Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, and Missouri, while Romney won in Michigan and Ohio. Both of them get another chance today when Illinois votes. All recent polls are pointing at a substantial Romney victory this time, far more than he achieved in Michigan and Ohio. Here are the data.

If Romney wins Illinois, it will be hard to imagine his rivals preventing his nomination, although the battle might still continue for a few weeks. If the polls are all wrong and Santorum wins, all bets are off and anything could happen. A lot depends on turnout. Chicago and its suburbs will certainly go for Romney and downstate will go for Santorum. If turnout is especially heavy in either part of the state, it will have a big impact.

Republicans to Propose Major Tax Reform Today     Permalink

House Budget Committee chairman, Paul Ryan, is set to unveil a proposed new tax code today that is certain to become a key issue--maybe the key issue--in the general election. It would reduce the current number of tax brackets from six to two, one at 10% and one at 25%, eliminate the alternative minimum tax, and reduce corporate rates. If enacted, it would be a godsend to millionaires, reducing their top marginal rate from 35% to 25%. At the same time, Ryan wants to eliminate Medicare in the sense that it pays doctor and hospital bills and turn it into a scheme in which the government gives each senior a voucher and tells him or her to use it to buy private insurance. However, it does nothing to prevent insurance companies from refusing to insure sick people and also nothing to prevent the companies from charging far more than the amount of the voucher.

Needless to say, the Democrats wildly oppose all of this and will campaign mightily against it. The proposal puts Romney in a bit of an awkward position, since he has to support his party's proposal. But the sight of a person who made $21 million last year campaigning on a platform of big tax cuts for the rich to be paid for by reducing the Medicare budget is not going to be pretty. Nevertheless, if this bill becomes topic A during the election, we may have an election that, for a change, is not about mudslinging, but about an idea--what is the role of the federal government in America?

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