Santorum Headed for Win in Louisiana Primary Today     Permalink

Louisiana is holding its Republican primary today but only 20 of its 46 delegates are at stake. To get any delegates, a candidate must get at least 25% of the statewide vote. Another 23 delegates will be selected in the state convention in Shreveport in June based on the results of the congressional district caucuses on April 28. The three RNC members are officially unpledged. It is a bit complicated, but Louisiana is famous for complicated elections. Nevertheless, a Santorum win will continue the "Romney can't win in the South" narrative.

The most recent poll, from PPP, puts Santorum ahead of Romney in Louisiana, 42% to 28%, with Gingrich at 18% and Paul at 8%. If these results hold up, Santorum will get about 14 delegates to Romney's 6. Picking up a net of about 8 delegates is not going to help Santorum much given that he is currently trailing Romney by about 563 to 263 in total delegates,

Club for Growth Buying Airtime Against Lugar     Permalink

Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) is so much of a fixture in Indiana politics that the Democrats didn't even bother to run anyone against him in 2006. In the three elections before 2006, they did, but Lugar still got 2/3 of the vote. So one might think he is a shoo-in for a seventh term in the Senate, but one would be wrong. The challenge the conservative senator is facing is not from the left, but from the right. In today's Republican Party, even solidly conservative incumbent senators can be challenged, as was the case with former senator Bob Bennett in Utah in 2010. Lugar is facing a primary battle with state Treasurer Richard Mourdock, a tea-party favorite and now the Club for Growth is buying ads to attack Lugar for being insufficiently conservative. Lugar's real problem is not his lack of conservatism, which he has in spades, but his attempt to act like an adult and not make incendiary statements.

Recent polling shows Lugar ahead by 6% for the May 8 primary. If Mourdock somehow manages to win the primary, we may have another situation like the Delaware 2010 senatorial election, in which the GOP nominated a tea party candidate, Christine O'Donnell, who went down in flames, rather than stick with a more boring Republican, Mike Castle, who was virtually certain to win. The Democratic nominee for the Indiana Senate seat is almost certainly going to be Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-IN). Normally Indiana is a reliably red state although Obama managed to win it by 1% in 2008.

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