Romney Wins the CPAC Straw Poll     Permalink

The Conservative Political Action Conference is the high point of the year for conservatives. They get together in D.C. to eat, drink, and talk politics and hear their heroes give speeches. Attendees also get to vote for their favorite candidate for President in a straw poll. This year the winner is Mitt Romney, with 38% of the 3,408 votes cast. Rick Santorum came in second with 31%, followed by Newt Gingrich with 15% and Ron Paul with 12%. Paul won the 2011 poll but didn't show up this year. While a small victory in such a specialized event, Romney is hoping for a boost after his drubbing in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri earlier this week.

Romney Edges Out Paul by 194 Votes in Maine     Permalink

In another piece of good news for Mitt Romney, he won the nonbinding, week-long Maine caucuses, but just barely. Here are the results:

Given that Maine is adjacent to New Hampshire, where Romney has a house, and not far from Massachusetts, where he was governor for 4 years, a win of 194 votes can't really be considered a landslide, but at this point Romney is thankful for all the victories he can get. Noteworthy is that only 5,516 Republicans showed up to vote, even though they had an entire week to do so. In 2008, John McCain got 295,273 votes in Maine, so if we take this as the number of Republicans in Maine, fewer than 2% of Maine Republicans bothered to vote. That does not augur well for turnout in November.

Santorum Leading in Michigan and Nationwide     Permalink

As we have pointed out more than a few times, in politics, a week is a long time. A week ago it was Rick Who? Now Rick Santorum has jumped to the lead in a PPP national poll released yesterday. Santorum has 38% to Romney's 23%, with Newt Gingrich back at 17% and Ron Paul last with 13%. While the Republican nomination has been volatile, to go from nowhere to a double-digit lead in a week is unprecedented, even for this year. Clearly the Republicans who still don't like Mitt Romney are rapidly jumping ship from Gingrich to Santorum, all on the basis of two caucuses and beauty contest this week, none of which allocated any actual delegates to the Republican National Convention.

Even worse for Romney is that Santorum is also leading in Michigan, which, along with Arizona, votes next, on Feb. 28. Santorum is skipping Arizona because the large Mormon population there is going to vote for Romney no matter what, but he is actively campaigning in Michigan, despite that being Romney's home state. A Santorum win in a state that Romney's father governed and then just a week before Super Tuesday will be devastating for Romney. All the news will be about Santorum's momentum. Romney will no doubt turn on the spigot of death very soon and begin running very negative ads about Santorum. They are likely to focus on Santorum's penchant for getting earmarks for Pennsylvania when he was a senator, but it is doubtful that many Republicans will see anything wrong with a senator fighting for his own state. Unfortunately for Romney, Santorum does not offer a lot of other targets to go after. If by some miracle or other Santorum is the GOP nominee, Obama will say that he is a right-wing extremist and far outside the mainstream, but Romney, who is trying like mad to burnish his conservative credentials can hardly attack Santorum for being an extreme conservative. That's what the base likes about him, after all. While the smart money is still betting on Romney to win the nomination, a loss in Michigan followed by multiple losses on Super Tuesday could seriously change the picture. Obama is probably sitting around the White House looking at these polls and thinking: "The Republicans say I am not a Christian, but I've been praying like crazy and God is giving me everything I asked for. What are they talking about?"

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