Santorum Wins Big in Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado     Permalink

Left for dead on the campaign trail in New Hampshire and buried in the snow there, Rick Santorum was miraculously resurrected yesterday by the voters of Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado, scoring wins in all three states. As recently as a week ago, he had no chance in any of these states and now this happens. For the candidates (and the political junkies who watch their every move), this has been an exciting year with no end to the twists and turns in sight. Here are the results of the three states that voted yesterday.

The Missouri result is simultaneously the least important and the most important of the three. It is the least important because the primary has nothing to do with the delegate selection process. The actual delegates will be chosen at a caucus in March. But it is also the most important because Newt Gingrich failed to qualify for the ballot, thus making this a one-on-one race (at least for the 85% of the Republican electorate not in love with Ron Paul) and a conservative. The result was a crushing defeat for Romney. Santorum won by 30 points, This fact is not going to be lost on anyone, but with Santorum alive again, the schism in the not-Romney camp, which was slowly coalescing around Gingrich, is going widen into a canyon again. In a certain sense that does not matter because delegates are allocated proportionally until April 1 (except for Florida), and all that matters to the conservatives is that Romney doesn't get them. After April 1, it is winner take all almost everywhere, and unless either Santorum or Gingrich drops out, Romney will simply win all the delegates with small pluralities.

Minnesota and Colorado held nonbinding caucuses yesterday. Delegates were elected to the county conventions, but they are not legally bound to support the winners of their precincts. Nevertheless, typically in a precinct caucus, each of the candidates for delegate gets to make a short speech explaining why he or she should be elected to go to the next level. In a caucus full of Santorum supporters, it is unlikely that someone who gets up there and says: "If elected, I will support Mitt Romney" is going to get many votes. So in practice, most of the delegates elected in both states are probably Santorum supporters.

The scope of the disaster for Romney shouldn't be underestimated. He lost every county in Missouri and came in third (after Santorum and Paul) in Minnesota. Romney won both states in 2008. The Minnesota loss is especially painful since former governor and former candidate Tim Pawlenty is Romney's national campaign chairman and has been very active in supporting Romney. In terms of delegates, none of this matters, but in terms of perceptions of inevitability, it weakens Romney substantially.

While we are hardly back to square one, the race has now become extremely muddled. Of the eight states that have voted so far, Santorum has won four, Romney has won three, and Gingrich has won one. The Maine caucuses finish on Saturday and the Northern Marianas (which both parties recognize as a state) also have their caucus on that day. Then Arizona and Michigan vote on Feb. 28 and Washington State on March 3, but there is unlikely to be any real clarity until Super Tuesday, March 6, when Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia vote. With so many states spread over such a large geographical area, this day becomes a real proxy for a national election. Romney has the money and organization to wage a national campaign, something that neither Santorum nor Gingrich can do. On the other hand, given these huge advantages, Romney losses in many states would be disastrous for him and would undoubtedly cause the race to go on for months.

The real loser yesterday was Newt Gingrich. He was on the verge of being the not-Romney and now he has to compete with Santorum again. While Santorum has no money and no organization, he also has no baggage and is probably more acceptable to a wide swath of the Republican base than Gingrich. If Santorum can break out now as the real alternative to Romney, he could cause Romney a lot of trouble.

But whether Santorum's triple victory can slow Romney's march to Tampa remains to be seen. Yesterday notwithstanding, Romney is still the strong favorite, in no small part because the GOP elite really doesn't give a hoot about abortion, gay marriage or the number of wives anybody has had, but is focused like a laser on beating President Obama in November. The fact that Romney is simply unable to excite conservatives is precisely what makes him the strongest general election candidate: independents think he is a centrist. Speaker John Boehner, Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, and strategist Karl Rove all understand that a long primary with the candidates attacking each other for months is not going to strengthen Romney in the end, but there is little they can do to force Gingrich and Santorum out of the race. A Marist College poll released yesterday shows that Romney's approval/disapproval rating with the all-important independents is now deep underwater at 22%/42%. The longer Gingrich and/or Santorum keep throwing bombs at Romney the worse it is going to get. In contrast, Obama's approval/disapproval rating is 46%/44% and is gradually getting better. Historically, incumbent Presidents whose approval is above 50% win and those below 50% lose, but never has it happened that an incumbent President faced such an unpopular opponent.

Romney's response to his painful defeats yesterday will no doubt be twofold. First, he will turn on the money machine, allowing his superPACs to start trashing Santorum as well as Gingrich in the Super Tuesday states. Second, he will get more elected Republican officials to endorse him. So far, the first tactic has worked better than the second one. The way it works is the Romney camp picks one thing the opponent has done that is likely to be unpopular with the voters and just harps on it endlessly. In Santorum's case, it is probably going to be his support for earmarks when he was in the Senate. But this is not likely to impress voters who don't even understand what an earmark is. Furthermore, the fact that Santorum tirelessly tried to get federal money to go to Pennsylvania is hardly a great sin. All senators try to get money for their states. It is part of the job description, really. As to endorsements, there is no evidence that they matter. part of the job description, really.

As to endorsements, there is no evidence that they matter. When the peasants are storming the king's castle with pitchforks, getting all the princes and dukes and earls to say what a great guy the king is, is not likely to sooth the peasants. And make no mistake, the GOP is badly split this year between the establishment and the base. No amount of talk from party leaders is going to make the conservative base like Romney. They will all hold their noses and vote for him in the general election if they have to, but they will fight tooth and nail to stop him until he has actually gathered 1144 pledged delegates to the convention.

A new item has been added to the menu below the map today: Primaries & caucuses. It shows all the primaries and caucuses so far, the results, and the upcoming ones. It will be updated in the weeks ahead as new results come in.

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