Santorum Leading Romney in Michigan     Permalink

If any pundit had suggested on Jan. 1, 2012 that by mid-February Mitt Romney would be badly trailing Rick Santorum in Michigan, he would have had a chorus of people clamoring for his pundit's diploma to be revoked. But here we are and eight polls have put Santorum ahead of the "official" front runner. Here are the details.

This situation is really astounding. After all, Michigan is not Iowa or South Carolina, loaded to the gills with evangelicals. It is the heart of Middle America. It is the state where Romney was born and where he grew up. It is the state where his father was a hugely successful businessman (CEO of American Motors) and later successful politician (three-term governor of Michigan). It is hard to imagine any politician having deeper ties to any state than Mitt Romney has to Michigan, and yet he is trailing badly there. What is going on here?

First, there are large numbers of Republican voters who do not like Romney. He can say whatever he wants, but they still don't like him (think: "I do not like green eggs and ham" except that story has a happy ending). They think he has no principles and is just an opportunistic politician. The surge of voters to Santorum is not so much about Santorum. He just happens to be the last man standing. For the not-Romney voters, it is Santorum or bust.

Second, the entire tone of the campaign has been so negative and Romney has been in the spotlight so long, that many voters are taking an increasingly dim view of the Republican Party and some of that is rubbing off on Romney. Primaries don't have to be negative. The one between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in 2008 was reasonably positive, with each of the candidates explaining why voters should support him or her, not why they should oppose the other person. This year's Republican contest has been extraordinarily mean and bitter, with attack ads outweighing positive ads by about 10 to 1. Romney has been in the news longer than Santorum, so more of the mud has stuck to him and Sheldon Adelson's pouring $11 million dollars into a superPAC whose mission is to attack Romney certainly hasn't helped Romney.

Third, evangelicals and social conservatives have finally found a candidate who talks to them. Romney's pitch has been to the accountant wing of the Republican Party: "I can balance the books better than the other guys and much better than Obama." The true base of the Republican Party doesn't really care about economics (think: "What's the Matter with Kansas"). They care about abortion and gay marriage, topics Romney has avoided like the plague and which Santorum has embraced. Even voters who hate Obama with a passion and want to see him defeated never had much enthusiasm for Romney although they will all vote for him in the general election if they have to.

Finally, the Democrats are helping Santorum under the radar. Debbie Wasserman Schultz over at the DNC has been running an ad pointing out that Obama saved the auto industry and Romney opposed the plan. In a state where tens of thousands of jobs depend on the auto industry, this ad is going to remind people of Romney's view that General Motors and Chrysler should have gone bankrupt. Of course, Santorum also opposed the industry bailout, but the ad doesn't mention him since its purpose is to take down Romney, not Santorum. Obama would love nothing better than to oppose the poorly funded, ill-prepared Santorum in the general election.

Romney is no doubt in full-blown panic mode now and will throw everything including the kitchen sink at Santorum. The trouble is, while Santorum is a target-rich environment for Obama, he is not a target-rich environment for Romney. Obama will attack Santorum as a right-wing extremist. Romney can't do that. But Romney knows better than anyone that a loss, especially a big loss, to Santorum in Michigan Feb. 28 would be devastating and really threaten his campaign. If Romney loses, the only news story between Feb. 29 and the March 6 super Tuesday elections is going to be about how Romney is on the ropes. If Santorum can parlay a Michigan win into multiple wins on super Tuesday, Romney's only real remaining argument--that he can win elections--will collapse and Santorum might become a serious contender for the nomination. At this moment though, Romney is still the favorite, although at intrade.com the odds on a Romney nomination are still at 72% and falling. Santorum is at 17%. But a Michigan win for Santorum would really roll the dice.

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