Review of the Gubernatorial Rces
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While there are still primaries to come in half a dozen potentially
competitive states, it is nevertheless worthwhile to take a look at
the gubernatorial races that are already beginning to become clear.
There are an incredible 24 open governor's seats this November,
mostly due to term limits, but also a few due to voluntary retirements
and one (NV) due to the sitting governor being defeated in a primary.
Here is the list
Alabama |
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Bob Riley (R) |
California |
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Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) |
Colorado |
Bill Ritter (D) |
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Connecticut |
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Jodi Rell (R) |
Florida |
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Charlie Crist (R) |
Georgia |
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Sonny Perdue (R) |
Hawaii |
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Linda Lingle (R) |
Kansas |
Mark Parkinson (D) |
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Maine |
John Baldacci (D) |
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Michigan |
Jennifer Granholm (D) |
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Minnesota |
|
Tim Pawlenty (R) |
Nevada |
|
Jim Gibbons (R) |
New Mexico |
Bill Richardson (D) |
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New York |
David Paterson (D) |
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Oklahoma |
Brad Henry (D) |
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Oregon |
Ted Kulongoski (D) |
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Pennsylvania |
Ed Rendell (D) |
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Rhode Island |
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Donald Carcieri (R) |
South Carolina |
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Mark Sanford (R) |
South Dakota |
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Mike Rounds (R) |
Tennessee |
Phil Bredesen (D) |
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Vermont |
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Jim Douglas (R) |
Wisconsin |
Jim Doyle (D) |
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Wyoming |
Dave Freudenthal (D) |
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The large number of gubernatorial contests on tap in November is
especially important due to the redistricting that will follow the
2010 census. In most states, the congressional districts are set by
state law, which gives the governor the power to veto plans drawn up
by the state legislature.
With some states slated to gain congressional seats and others slated
to lose them, this power can come in handy for a political party, so
expect furious battles in many states.
Here is a list of the most competitive gubernatorial races.
The candidate of the incumbent party is listed first. For a
discussion of all the gubernatorial races, click on the "Governors races" link on the menu below the map.
Arizona
Incumbent | Challenge | Notes |
Jan Brewer (R)
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Terry Goddard (D)
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Gov. Jan Brewer (R-AZ) got her job when term-limited Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)
took a job in the cabinet. Since she wasn't elected, she may be vulnerable.
The most likely Democratic candidate is Attorney General Terry Goddard.
Since the most recent person to be elected governor was a Democrat in an
otherwise somewhat Republican state, this race has to be considered a
tossup at this point.
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California
Challenger | Challenger | Notes |
Meg Whitman (R)
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Jerry Brown (D)
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Open seat. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA) is term limited so the
biggest prize of all in terms of possibilities to gerrymander
House districts is up for grabs.
The Democrats nominated former governor Jerry Brown (D) while the Republicans nominated former
eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R), who spent over $60 million of her own money on the primary. If she
dumps an equal amount on the general election, she could be competitive. Despite being a very
blue state, California has had many Republican governors.
Furthermore, Brown is an extremely erratic campaigner. He might even decide to
go off to an ashram to meditate instead of campaigning this Fall.
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Connecticut
Challenger | Challenger | Notes |
Tom Foley (R)
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Dan Malloy (D)
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With Gov. Jody Rell's (R-CT) announced retirement, this has become a wide open
race with the Democrats having a good chance to pick up the governor's
mansion. After hotly contested primaries, the Republicans picked former ambassador to Ireland
Tom Foley (R) and the Democrats picked former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy (D).
Connecticut is a blue state and Malloy has run for and won public office before, so he is
the favorite.
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Florida
Challenger | Challenger | Notes |
Bill McCollum (R)
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Alex Sink (D)
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Open seat. With Gov. Charlie Crist's decision to run for the seat of retired senator Mel Martinez (R)
the governor's race was suddenly thrown wide open. Surprisingly, it settled down on
both sides very fast, with Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) and Chief Financial Office
Alex Sink (D) becoming the overwhelming favorites to get their party's respective
nominations. Both are well know statewide. It could be a close race.
One possible wild card: McCollum is facing a quirky primary challenge from billionaire Rick Scott
who is simply trying to buy the nomination.
Historically, it is very hard for an unknown billionaire to beat a well-known politiican
in a big state, but in Florida, anything is possible.
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Georgia
Challenger | Challenger | Notes |
Nathan Deal (R)
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Roy Barnes (D)
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Open seat. With Gov. Sonny Perdue (R-GA) term limited, former governor
Roy Barnes (D) jumped into the race and won the primary.
The Republican primary was indecisive, forcing a runoff between tea partier
Karen Handel (R) and former representative Nathan Deal (R). Deal won it by
a hair. The general election is likely to be close.
|
Illinois
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes |
Pat Quinn (D)
|
Bill Brady (R)
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Gov. Pat Quinn (D-IL) became governor when his predecessor, Rod Blagojevich (D), was impeached and convicted.
So far, Quinn doesn't appear touched by the state's boundless corruption, but when
you weren't elected to your current office, you are always vulnerable.
The Republicans don't have a stellar candidate here, with
Bill Brady (R) eking out the narrowest of victories over his primary challengers.
Still, Illinois is a fairly blue state and Quinn is somewhat better known than Brady, so the race leans
towards Quinn although the Green Party candidate could draw votes from him.
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Iowa
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes |
Chet Culver (D)
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Terry Brandstad (R)
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Gov. Chet Culver (D-IA) is a moderate Democrat in a moderately Democratic state.
However, his popularity is dropping and he could be vulnerable.
The Republican is
former four-term governor Terry Branstad (R).
Since Branstad is a proven vote getter, albeit a decade ago, he could be a tough competitor.
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Maine
Challenger | Challenger | Notes |
Libby Mitchell (D)
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Paul LePage (R)
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Open seat. Gov. John Baldacci (D-ME) is term limited, giving the Republicans
a shot in this once strongly Republican state.
The Democrats nominated state senate president Libby Mitchell (D) in a four-way primary.
The Republicans chose the mayor of Waterville, Paul LePage (R).
In addition to these two, three independents are also running.
|
Maryland
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes |
Martin O'Malley (D)
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Bob Ehrlich (R)
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Gov. Martin O'Malley (D-MD) will be running for a second term in this very
blue state. Early in his term he raised taxes, which lowered his approval
ratings somewhat. Former one-term governor Bob Ehrlich (R) wants to get his
old job back, so this will be a rematch of the 2006 election. O'Malley beat
Ehrlich in 2006, but the wind is blowing a different way now. Likely to be close.
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Michigan
Challenger | Challenger | Notes |
Virg Bernero (D)
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Rick Snyder (R)
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Open seat. Term-limited governor Jennifer Granholm (D-MI) is leaving, which is
probably a good thing for the Democrats as she was not all that popular. Also, the
economy of her state is a complete disaster, although it is not really her fault
that General Motors has had little interest in the past 30 years in producing cars that people
actually want to buy. Lt. Gov. John Cherry (D-MI) was next in line but decided not to run.
The Democratic nominee ended up being Lansing mayor Virg Bernero (D).
Rick Snyder (R) won a tough GOP primary. The race probably leans slightly Republican
because the voters are so angry about the economy and the Democrats are in charge now.
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Minnesota
Challender | Challenger | Notes |
Tom Emmer (R)
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Mark Dayton (D)
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Open seat. Some people are talking about Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) as a possible
presidential nominee in 2012. He hasn't discouraged that kind of talk,
and he decided not to run for a third term in 2010 to concentrate on his presidential run.
Former senator Mark Dayton (D) decided to get back into politics and won the DFL (Democratic)
primary. State representative Tom Emmer (R) won the Republican primary. The race is clouded
by the presence of a third-party candidate, Tom Horner. It could be close.
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New Mexico
Challenger | Challenger | Notes |
Diane Denish (D)
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Susana Martinez (R)
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Open seat. Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) is term limited. Lt. Gov Diane Denish (D-NM) is
runing for the Democrats. What about the Republicans?
Well, Obama carried the state in a landslide, the Democrats control both Senate seats, all three House
seats, all statewide offices, and both chambers of the state legislature (by nearly 2 to 1 margins).
The Republicans control nothing, so the best they could come up with is the Dona Ana County
District Attorney, Susana Martinez. With both candidates female, New Mexico is sure to get
its first woman governor. Martinez would be the first Latina, but the current governor is
a Latino, so that is less of a breakthrough.
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Ohio
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes |
Ted Strickland (D)
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John Kasich (R)
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Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH) crushed his Republican opponent, Ken Blackwell, in 2006 and has
remained relatively popular since then. But with the Ohio economy in the toilet
people need to blame someone and the governor is always on everyone's short list.
Former representative John Kasich (R) is his opponent and since he is not in office now, he can claim he's not
responsible for the economic mess. It is likely to be close.
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Pennsylvania
Challenger | Challenger | Notes |
Dan Onorato (D)
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Tom Corbett (R)
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Open seat. With two-term governor Ed Rendell (D-PA), retiring in 2010,
the governor's mansion in a key swing state will be up for grabs.
Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA) was running but dropped out leaving the nomination to Pennsylvania Attorney General Tom Corbett (R).
The Democrat is Dan Onorato, the County Executive for the county containing Pittsburgh. Neither candidate is an
incumbent and Pennsylvania has many more registered Democrats than registered Republicans on account of
Hillary Clinton's refusal to drop out of the presidential race in 2008. It is the gift that keeps on giving.
Although Pennsylvania is a blue state, Corbett is better known than Onorato. Hard to tell what will happen.
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Rhode Island
Challenger | Challenger | Challenger | Notes
Polls |
Frank Caprio (D)
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John Robitaille (R)
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Lincoln Chafee (I)
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Rhode Island is one of two New England states with a three-way race for governor. The incumbent, Gov. Don Carcieri (R),
is term limited. Former senator Lincoln Chafee is trying to make a political comeback as governor. He
will face off against the state Treasurer, Frank Caprio (D), and a Republican, probably John Robitaille, who has no chance.
Chafee is still popular in the state and New England has had independent governors before, so he has a fair shot at winning.
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Texas
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes |
Rick Perry (R)
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Bill White (D)
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The fight to unseat Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX), the longest serving governor in Texas history,
is going to be a humdinger. Perry first had to beat back a primary challenger, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson, which he did handily.
Now he has to face off against the popular former mayor of Houston, Bill White (D). White is the first
Democrat in years with a decent shot of being elected governor because the state's growing
Latino population is highly Democratic and Perry has made a lot of enemies during his tenure.
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Wisconsin
Challenger | Challenger | Notes |
Tom Barrett (D)
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(R)
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Open seat. Wisconsin law allows Gov. Jim Doyle (D-WI) to run for a third term
but he has decided not to. Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett (D) is running to succeed him
since the lieutenant governor, Barbara Lawton (D-WI) is not interested in the job.
The Republicans have a primary in Sept. between Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R)
and former congressman Mark Neumann (R).
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Vermont
Challenger | Challenger | Notes |
Brian Dubie (R)
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(D)
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Open seat. Vermont was one of the Republicans' few bright spots in New England.
If four-term governor Jim Douglas (R-VT) had run for a fifth two-year term, he'd
probably have won, but he is not running, so the Democrats have the edge now. Possible Dems are
former lieutenant governor Doug Racine, Secretary of State Deborah Marowitz,
and Treasurer Jeb Spaulding.
Only one Republican filed: Lt.Gov. Brian Dubie(R-VT).
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