Deutch Elected to Congress in Florida
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When Robert Wexler (D) resigned from Congress to work for a nonprofit, he left behind an open seat
in FL-19.
In yesterday's special election
to fill the vacant seat, Ted Deutsch (D) easily defeated Republican Ed Lynch 62% to 35% in this
heavily Democratic and heavily Jewish South Florida district.
Politically, one liberal Democrat has been replaced by another one, so the balance of power in
the House remains unchanged.
Rundown of Competitive Senate Races
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It's been a while since we looked at the Senate races, so here is a current rundown,
starting with seats currently occupied by Democrats. If history is any guide, the
Republicans will pick up something like 6-8 seats in the Senate, and these are the most
vulnerable. We will look at vulnerable Republicans in a future posting.
Arkansas
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes
Polls |
(D)
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(R)
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Arkansas is a very Democratic state--except for presidential elections. The governor
and both senators are Democrats as are three of the four representatives and the
Democrats control both houses of the state legislature. In 2008, the Republicans
didn't even bother to field a candidate against Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR).
Nevertheless, Blanche Lincoln's popularity is way down and she is facing a primary challenge
from Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) who is rapidly gaining traction.
On the Republican side, there are multiple candidates, including
Rep. John Boozman, who is the strongest candidate but he has to get through a primary first.
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Colorado
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes
Polls |
Michael Bennet (D)
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Jane Norton (R)
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Ken Salazar swam against the Republican tide in 2004, but since he has now been appointed to the
cabinet, an appointee, Michael Bennet, will be running in 2010.
Bennet has never held elective office before, so he has no experience campaigning.
He will also have to fend off a primary challenge from former Colorado House speaker
Andrew Romanoff (D), who is somewhat to the left of Bennet.
Fortunately for Bennet, President Obama has already endorsed him in the primary.
The most likely Republican candidate is former lieutenant governor Jane Norton.
Initial polls show Norton beating Bennet in the general election.
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Delaware
Challenger | Challenger | Notes
Polls |
Chris Coons (D)
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Mike Castle (R)
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When Joe Biden became Vice President, Gov. Ruth Minner appointed a placeholder, Ted Kaufman,
to keep the seat warm until Biden's son, Beau Biden, could come back from his tour of duty in
Iraq and run. Unfortunately, when Biden came back he decided not to run, leaving the
Democrats with a big problem. Eventually,
Chris Coons, executive of the state's largest county jumped in the race.
Sensing an opening, Mike Castle, the state's lone representative decided to run even though
he is 70 and it takes 20 years to get enough seniority to have any real power.
Initial polls show Castle way ahead of the lesser-known Coons, but Delaware is a very blue
state, so that could change as Coons gets better known.
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Illinois
Challenger | Challenger | Notes
Polls |
Alexi Giannoulias (D)
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Mark Kirk (R)
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After a lot of feinting, the Senate decided to seat Roland Burris as Barack Obama's replacement.
Burris failed to raise much money and was dogged by scandals, so he decided to call it quits in 2010.
State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias won the Democratic primary and will face Rep. Mark Kirk (R) in the general election.
Although Illinois is a blue state, Giannoulias' family owns a small bank that is in financial trouble.
Being associated with a poorly performing bank
is not a good place to be right now. The race is expected to be close.
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Indiana
Challenger | Challenger | Notes
Polls |
Brad Ellsworth (D)
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(R)
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Although Barack Obama carried Indiana, it is nevertheless a fairly red state.
If Sen. Evan Bayh had decided to run again, he would have won easily, but he has had
enough of how Washington works and decided to retire from politics. His departure
completely completely shakes up the race and makes it a tossup. The Democrat is very likely
to be Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) but the Republicans have a nasty primary between former
representative John Hostettler (R) and former senator Dan Coats (R).
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Nevada
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes
Polls |
Harry Reid (D)
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(R)
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The gentlemen's agreement between the parties to leave each other's leader alone is gone,
and Harry Reid is high on the Republican's target list.
Reid's popularity in the state is low, so the Republicans will certainly do
their best to unseat him.
Their biggest problem is lack of a single candidate. There will be a primary between a former
state party chairwoman, Sue Lowden (R) and son of a famous college basketball
coach, Danny Tarkanian, and some others, So the race is more Reid's to lose than the
Republican's to win.
One factor that may help Reid is that the Tea Party candidate, Job Ashjian, has qualified for the ballot,
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Pennsylvania
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes
Polls |
(D)
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Pat Toomey (R)
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Arlen Specter's switch back to the Democrats took everyone by surprise.
He was elected to the Senate five times as a Republican in a blue state.
Since jumping ship, he has voted with the Democratic leadership nearly 100% of the time
in an attempt to make the state's Democrats forget that he was a Republican for 30 years.
In addition, he will first have to get past a primary challenger,
Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), a retired Vice-Admiral in the Navy.
The Republican nominee will be former representative Pat Toomey (R) who is very far to the
right. When the Democrats' primary is over, Toomey's views will become much more widely
known and will hurt him.
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Analysis of Battle to Replace Stevens
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The National Journal has an excellent
analysis
of recent Supreme Court nominations in historical perspective.
For example, although the media have decided that retiring Justice John Paul Stevens is the
leader of the liberals on the court, he is actually the 12th most conservative justice since the
FDR era. This shows that the Court has moved rightward over the years. In fact, with only
one or two exceptions, nearly all appointees have been more conservative than the person they
are replacing.
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