News from the Votemaster

Democrats Call on Blagojevich to Resign

Democrats high and low, from President-elect Barack Obama on down, have called on Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D-IL) to resign. Majority leader Harry Reid specifically said Blagojevich was under no circumstances to appoint a senator to fill Obama's vacant seat. Nobody seriously expects Blagojevich to resign. On the other hand, many people seriously expect him to be impeached, possibly as early as Monday when the state house reconvenes.

There is also a widespread call for the Illinois state legislature to change state law stripping the power to appoint senators from the governor and requiring special elections instead, as is done with vacancies in the House. Changing the law will be hard to do with Blagojevich in power because if the legislature passes a law changing the way vacancies are filled, the governor has 60 days to sign or veto it. Thus Blagojevich could delay any override attempt by 60 days. If Blagojevich is impeached and convicted, Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn (D) would become governor and would surely sign it immediately, ending the crisis. Then there would be primaries and a general election and the new senator would not be tainted at all since he or she would have gotten the job by winning a statewide election.

In a letter, all 50 members of the Democratic senatorial caucus have demanded that Blagojovich resign and refrain from appointing a senator. The caucus has only 50 members (including Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders because Obama has already resigned from the Senate). This development is significant because it signals that the Senate might vote to deny a seat to a Blagojevich appointee.

If Blagojevich remains defiant and makes an appointment anyway, it could get dicey. No sane Illinois politician would accept the appointment now but Blagojevich could appoint himself (or his wife). What then? The Senate would probably vote 99 to 0 not to seat him. Then Blagojevich would appeal to the courts. In the closest case to this one, in 1969, the Supreme Court ruled in the Powell vs. McCormack case that the House had to seat the corrupt congressman Adam Clayton Powell because he was 30 years old, a U.S. citizen, and a resident of New York State, where he was elected. In other words, he met the basic constitutional requirements for membership in the House. This case is slightly different because it is about an appointed senator, not an elected one so the court might rule differently. It is also possible that whatever the court rules, the Senate could just refuse to seat the appointee saying basically it is the Senate, not the Supreme Court, that has the final word on seating senators. Such a statement would be a clear attempt to reassert Congress as a co-equal branch of government, not one subsidiary to the executive and the courts.

Also possible, and on stronger legal grounds, would be for the Senate to seat the appointee and then immediately expel him. Expulsion requires a 2/3 majority, but it is hard to imagine that 34 senators would support Blagojevich appointing himself. While Congress is hesitant to overturn the will of the people, assuming they can figure it out (see: Minnesota, senate election), appointments by scandal-plagued governors are a whole different kettle of fish. All in all, it seems unlikely that Blagojevich will try and it seems very unlikely he will actually succeed.

Obama Names Environmental Team

President-elect Obama is expected to name Prof. Steven Chu, a Nobel-Prize-winning physicist at the University of California at Berkeley as his secretary of energy. Chu received his bachelors degree from the University of Rochester and his Ph.D. from Berkeley. He is currently director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and an expert on alternative energy sources.

Lisa Jackson will be named head of the environmental protection agency. Jackson holds degrees in chemical engineering from Tulane University (she is from New Orleans) and Princeton. Jackson worked at the EPA for 16 years.

Another appointment widely expected is that of Carol Browner to the new post of "energy czar." Browner has a bachelors degree and a law degree from the University of Florida. She ran the EPA in the Clinton administration. Her job is to coordinate all the other people involved with energy and the environment and to advise the President.

What is noteworthy about Obama's appointment is that rather than choosing politicians, he favors subject-matter experts, usually with graduate degrees and often from universities, frequently M.I.T., Harvard, and Berkeley. This is a huge change from the Bush administration, which tended to be populated by politicians and people from the business world.

House Passes Bill to Bail Out Auto Industry

The House passed a bill to bail out Detroit, but Senate Republicans are balking at approving it. Many of them want to see the automakers go bankrupt in order to break their contracts with the unions. This resistance comes after the Democrats caved in on two major issues. First, the money would come from a fund intended to encourage green cars (rather than from the $700 billion TARP program). Second, Democrats dropped a provision requiring Detroit to accept that the states (especially California) could mandate tougher emission standards than the federal government. At this point, it is not clear if the bill has enough votes to clear the Senate.

Rundown of Republican-Held Senate Seats in 2010

With so much going on in the Senate, it is perhaps time to take a peek at the Senate seats up for reelection in 2010. Here is a rundown of the Republican-held Senate seats up for reelection in 2010. The Democratic ones will be examined tomorrow.

Alabama

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Richard Shelby (R)	(D)	Richard Shelby was first elected to the Senate as a Democrat in 1984 by a whisker, but jumped ship and became a Republican in 1994 when the Republicans took over. While conservative on social issues, he is more moderate in economic issues, reflecting his Dixiecrat origins. He won reelection with 68% of the vote in 2004 and is likely to get that again unless the Democrats can find a top-tier opponent, which is unlikely.

Alaska

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Lisa Murkowski (R)	(D)	Lisa Murkowski was appointed to the Senate in 2002 by her father, the governor, who had just vacated the seat himself. There were many cries of nepotism at the time. In 2004 she won election on her own against Tony Knowles, 49% to 46%. Alaska is a fairly Republican state so she is likely to be reelected unless the Democrats can find an exceptionally strong candidate.

Arizona

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
John McCain (R)	(D)	John McCain is popular in Arizona and will be reelected easily. His only threat was Janet Napolitano, and now that she is secretary of homeland security, he is safe.

Florida

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	Sen. Mel Martinez is retiring at the end of his term, which will set off a free for all for this competitive Senate seat. Republicans are hoping that former governor Jeb Bush runs. For Democrats, the race is wide open although Florida's chief financial officer Alex Sink, might have a bit of an edge if she wants to run.

Georgia

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Johnny Isakson (R)	(D)	Although Johnny Isakson is only a one-term senator and was elected in the year George Bush was reelected, he is a very conservative senator, which matches the Georgia electorate well, so it is unlikely he can be unseated in 2010.

Idaho

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mike Crapo (R)	(D)	Mike Crapo is a conservative senator who is a good match for his state. The Democrats didn't even bother running a candidate against him in 2004. He will cruise to reelection in 2010--if he runs. He was treated for prostate cancer in 2000 and again in 2005 and might decide to retire, but even if he does, the Republicans are virtually certain to retain the seat.

Iowa

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Chuck Grassley (R)	(D)	Chuck Grassley is a fixture in the Senate. Since 1986 he has always gotten at least 66% of the vote. He is unbeatable.

Kansas

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
(R)	(D)	Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) is retiring so Kansas has an open seat in 2010. No Democrat has been elected to the Senate from Kansas for over half a century. However, if Gov. Kathleen Sebelius decides to run for the seat, she might actually have a chance. If she declines to run, whichever Republican wins the likely primary will be elected. If Brownback runs for governor and Sebelius runs for the Senate, the voters may elect both, feeling it is an even trade.

Kentucky

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jim Bunning (R)	(D)	Jim Bunning is the only senator who is a member of the Baseball Hall of Fame having been a successful pitcher for the Tigers, Phillies, Pirates, and Dodgers before being elected to Congress. However he will be 79 in 2010 and has some health issues. Kentucky is not as Republican as some Southern states and if the Democrats come up with a solid challenger, they might have a chance, especially if Rep. Ben Chandler runs.

Louisiana

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
David Vitter (R)	(D)	David Vitter is the only Republican ever elected to the Senate from Louisiana since direct election of senators began. He will certainly be under a cloud in 2010 because he was a customer of the late D.C. madam, Deborah Jeane Palfrey. Count on his Democratic opponent to bring this up.

Missouri

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Kit Bond (R)	(D)	Kit Bond has been elected to the Senate four times, none of them by landslide margins. If Missouri secretary of state, Robin Carnahan (D), challenges him, he will have a real fight on his hands.

New Hampshire

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Judd Gregg (R)	(D)	Judd Gregg is the most endangered senator up in 2010. Traditionally New Hampshire was a Republican stronghold in New England. Since 2006, however, the state has become bright blue with a vengeance. Both (Republican) congressmen were unseated in 2006 and Sen. John Sununu (R-NH) went down to defeat by former governor Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) in 2008. If Gov. John Lynch (D-NH) decides to run for the Senate instead of for governor in 2010, Gregg is in big trouble.

North Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Richard Burr (R)	(D)	Richard Burr is a one-term senator in what has become a swing state. He watched in angst as his Republican colleague Elizabeth Dole went down to defeat at the hands of state senator Kay Hagan in 2008. Initial PPP (D) polling of Burr against state attorney general Roy Cooper (D) shows Cooper winning by 5 points. To put this in perspective, at a similar point in the previous cycle, Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) was crushing state senator Kay Hagan (D) by 16 points. Nevertheless, Hagan won.

Ohio

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
George Voinovich (R)	(D)	George Voinovich is a two-term senator from a swing state but a recent poll shows that his approval rating is about 35% so he may be vulnerable if the Democrats can come up with a solid candidate.

Oklahoma

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Tom Coburn (R)	(D)	Tom Coburn is a very conservative senator from a very conservative state. He's safe unless Gov. Brad Henry (D-OK) decides to challenge him, in which case he might have to work hard to keep his job.

Pennsylvania

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Arlen Specter (R)	(D)	Arlen Specter will be the Democrats #2 target (after Judd Gregg). He will be 80 in 2010, has incurable cancer, and is from a blue state. Furthermore, he may face a primary challenge from the right from Pat Toomey, who challenged him in 2004. But beating Toomey won't be enough. If Gov. Ed Rendell (D-PA) can be talked into challenging him, Specter is in huge trouble, but he will also have a big fight on his hands against any of the numerous Democratic representatives from Pennsylvania. Hardball host Chris Matthews may also be interested in the job.

South Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jim DeMint (R)	(D)	Jim DeMint is the most conservative member of the Senate and fits his state well. He is completely safe.

South Dakota

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
John Thune (R)	(D)	John Thune upset the Democratic minority leader, Tom Daschle, in 2004, violating a gentlemen's agreement that both parties had not to attack each other's leader. Consequently, Democrats are really going to gun for him this time to get revenge. One potential candidate is Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, the state's sole representative. She has a proven track record of winning statewide by large margins and would be a serious challenger if she decides to go for a promotion to the Senate.

Utah

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Robert Bennett (R)	(D)	Robert Bennett is a very conservative senator from a very conservative state. He won by 40 points last time. He will be reelected easily.