News from the Votemaster

Obama Has Had No Contact with Blagojevich for Months

Barack Obama has been avoiding all contact with Gov. Rod Blagojevich for months. Blagojevich was not invited to the Democratic convention and Obama never called him to ask for help or offer any perks. Apparently Obama knew that Blagojevich was a sleazy character and wanted to have nothing at all to do with him. As we go forward, this decision to completely avoid the Illinois governor will keep him from being tarred by the ongoing scandal in which Blagojevich tried to sell Obama's Senate seat. In contrast, Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. did have some contact with Blagojevich, which pretty much ends any chance Jackson may once have had at getting the seat.

Auto Bailout Stalled in the Senate

The Democrats and Republicans in the Senate cannot agree on the terms of the bailout of the automakers so at least for the moment, there will be no bailout. The stock market will probably react badly to this news today. That may or may not cause the senators to have second thoughts on potential bankruptcies of General Motors and Chrysler. Ford says it can survive for a few more months on its own.

Minnesota Madness

The five-person Minnesota canvassing board will meet today to decide what to do about the absentee ballots that were incorrectly rejected. The board might decide it does not have the authority to do anything, in which case the Franken campaign will certainly sue in the courts. Then it will be up to Minnesota supreme court to figure out what to do, and maybe the U.S. Supreme Court.

Democratic Seats Up for Reelection in 2010

Yesterday we had a rundown of the Republican-held seats up in 2010. Here are the Democratic seats.

Arkansas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Blanche Lincoln (D)	(R)	Arkansas is a very Democratic state--except for presidential elections. The governor and both senators are Democrats as are three of the four representatives and the Democrats control both houses of the state legislature. In 2008, the Republicans didn't even bother to field a candidate against Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR). Maybe they will find some body to challenge Lincoln, but it hardly matters. She is as safe as can be.

California

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Barbara Boxer (D)	(R)	Barbara Boxer is a three-term incumbent and very popular in the state (she beat her opponent by 20 points in 2004). If Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger challenges her, she will have to work hard but she is a prodigious fundraiser and Schwarzenegger has never had an opponent anywhere near as tough as Boxer. If Schwarzenegger runs, she is still likely to win because California is a very blue state. If Schwarzenegger does not run, she is a shoo-in.

Colorado

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Ken Salazar (D)	(R)	Ken Salazar is one of the three Latinos in the Senate. He swam against the tide in 2004 and was elected even though Kerry lost Colorado. This time will be much easier because he is now the incumbent, Colorado has become much bluer, and he doesn't have to worry about Bush's coattails. Barring something surprising, he should win fairly easily.

Connecticut

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Chris Dodd (D)	(R)	Chris Dodd is a five-term senator from a blue state so under normal conditions it shouldn't be hard for him to become a six-term senator. However, he is also chairman of the Senate banking committee and as such is partially responsible for the various bailouts going on. These could be his Achiles heel. A potential Republican opponent could attack the bailouts and indirectly Dodd. However, the only Republican in Connecticut with enough stature to challenge him is Gov. Jodi Rell (R-CT). If she decides to stay put, he's safe.

Delaware

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	Gov. Ruth Minner (D-DE) has appointed Ted Kaufman, a long-time aide to Sen. Joe Biden, to fill Biden's seat. Kaufman is not expected to run in 2010 leaving the seat open. It is likely that Biden's son, Beau Biden will run for it and if he does, he will be the odds-on favorite in this heavily Democratic state.

Hawaii

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Daniel Inouye (D)	(R)	Daniel Inouye will be 86 in 2010 and might retire. If he runs for a ninth term, he will win easily. If he retires, whichever Democrat wins the primary will be elected unless Gov. Linda Lingle (R-HI) decides to run, in which case it could be a contest. Still, Republicans are scarce on the ground in Hawaii.

Illinois

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	Hard to say too much about this seat until Obama's successor is named. However, Illinois is a blue state so it is always an uphill climb for any Republican.

Indiana

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Evan Bayh (D)	(R)	Although Barack Obama carried Indiana, it is nevertheless a fairly red state. However, this color does not appear to apply to the Bayh family. Evan has been elected to statewide office five times (once as secretary of state, twice as governor, and twice as senaor) and his father was a three-term senator. If Gov. Mitch Daniels runs for the Senate, Bayh would at least have to campaign. Otherwise, he will coast effortlessly to a third term.

Maryland

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Barbara Mikulski (D)	(R)	Barbara Mikulski is a four-term senator from a very blue state. In 2004 she got more votes than any candidate in the history of Maryland. She can stay in the Senate until she dies if she wants to.

Nevada

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Harry Reid (D)	(R)	Although the gentlemen's agreement between the parties to leave each other's leader alone is gone, defeating the powerful majority leader will be tough. For one thing, Nevada swung strongly into the Democratic column in 2008. For another, his position gives him the ability to bring home the bacon. While his reelection is not a sure thing, he will not be an easy target.

New York

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Chuck Schumer (D)	(R)	The Republicans will probably put up a symbolic candidate against Chuck Schumer, but the only value in doing so is for the candidate to get some exposure to run for some other office later. Schumer is invincible.

New York

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
(D)	(R)	New York is a blue state, so whoever replaces Hillary Clinton has the edge, but until the appointee is known, it is a bit hard to evaluate his or her chances.

North Dakota

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Byron Dorgan (D)	(R)	While it may seem odd for North Dakota, a very red state, to keep electing Democrats to the Senate, both senators are Democrats. If Gov. John Hoeven (R-ND) decides to run, Dorgan may have to work hard to keep his job. Otherwise, Dorgan gets a fourth term.

Oregon

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Ron Wyden (D)	(R)	Ron Wyden is a popular Democratic senator from an increasingly blue state. It is doubtful that he can be unseated.

Vermont

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Pat Leahy (D)	(R)	Pat Leahy was first elected to the Senate when he was 34. He can stay there until he gets bored with the job and there is no evidence that boredom is about to set in. He won by 46 points in 2004 and will do as well in 2010.

Washington

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Patty Murray (D)	(R)	Patty Murray calls herself "a mom in tennis shoes" but she shouldn't be underestimated: she is the #4 Democrat in the Senate Democratic caucus. While the Republicans will surely mount a serious challenge to her, she is the clear favorite for a fourth term.

Wisconsin

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Russ Feingold (D)	(R)	What's a twice-divorced Jew who supports gay marriage, universal health insurance, and gun control and who opposes the war in Iraq and the patriot act doing in Wisconsin? Answer: representing the state in the Senate since 1993. Feingold is one of the most liberal members of the Senate, but Wisconsin voters seem to like that. He should cruise to an easy reelection.