Political Fallout of Financial Crisis Helps Democrats

A new CNN poll shows that voters blame the Republicans rather than the Democrats for the financial crisis by 2 to 1. Forty-seven percent blame the Republicans, 24% blame the Democrats, 20% blame both equally and 8% say neither party is to blame. With the economy front and center now, this is an ominous development for John McCain and also downticket Republicans. The poll also shows Obama with a 10-point lead on the question of who would handle the economy better. Also problematic for McCain is that 53% said he will carry out George Bush's policies, which are toxic (Bush's approval is now at 19%).

Bailout Is Running into Headwind

Not everyone is enthusiastic about giving the treasury secretary Henry Paulson $700 billion to spend as he sees fit with no oversight from Congress and no judicial review. Politico asked a number of influential people what they thought of the deal and collected their opinions here. It is already clear that the Paulson bill is going to have competition from a bill being drafted by Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT), which does more for Main St. and provides oversight.

President Bush has said that there will be dire consequences if the Paulson plan is not adopted immediately. However, even legislators who were easily cowed during the run-up to the Iraq war are beginning to show something that might, given enough time, possibly, eventually develop into something resembling a proto-spine. And this holds for both parties. Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL), ranking member of the Senate banking committee and one of the most loyal Bush allies in the Senate said he was concerned the bailout plan "neither workable nor comprehensive, despite its enormous price tag." Some senators are insisting that in return for giving the banks $700 billion in taxpayer money, the taxpayers should get something in return, such as stock in the banks or at least warrants to buy stock later, so after the dust has settled the government can sell the stock and recoup some of the money. It is truly amazing that a body (Congress) that holds all the cards is so easily intimidated. It can pass any law it wants to, tell Bush "take it or leave it," and then adjourn. If Bush vetoes the bill, nothing will happen until after the election and probably not until the new Congress convenes.

Older Voters Scared by Market Turmoil

People who are 45 tend to react to the market jitters with a shrug saying "it will come back" and given a few years they are probably right. But people just about to retire or already retired are very worried according to this story in the NY Times. What we don't really know yet is whether older voters, one of the key elements of McCain's support, will turn against him. As mentioned above, polls have generally shown that more people have faith in Obama to manage the economy. If the President is the only one between you and a nice bowl of dog food every day, you may weigh your vote very, very carefully this year.

Intrade Map

The betting site www.intrade.com is now running a map every day showing who the bettors think is going to win every state. Here is this morning's map.

In general, the betting sites are lagging indicators with respect to the polls. When new polls come in, the bettors see that and adjust their bets accordingly. It doesn't work the other way (people responding to pollsters don't do so on the basis of what they saw on Intrade). Like the polls, the betting sites have a mixed record. For example, bettors thought the Republicans would win the Senate in 2006. Didn't happen. Nevertheless, this is a new data point to toss into the hopper.

Today we see the following differences between the polling data (this site) and the betting data (Intrade). Polling puts McCain ahead in Nevada but the bettors are saying Obama will take the Silver State. In contrast, polling puts Obama ahead in Virginia but the bettors think McCain will win Old Dominion in the end. Polling is neutral on Ohio but the betters give the Buckeye state to McCain. Based on the polling data, Obama wins the election 282 to 236 with Ohio too close to call. Intrade says it will be Obama 278 to 260.

Congessional Committees Fundraising for August

Swing State Project has the reports of the Senate and House fundraising efforts. Here are the numbers.

While the Democrats are still way ahead, the Republicans have come back from nowhere to at least get closer. Earlier in the year the Senate Democrats led 2 to 1 and the House Democrats led 8 to 1. Nevertheless, it is very unusual for the Democrats to have more money than the Republicans for the congressional races.

Another Look at a 269-269 Tie

A couple of weeks ago we looked at the consequences of a 269-269 tie in the electoral college. Here is another take on the subject. While the chances of an exact tie are small, they are definitely not zero.

Today's Polls

We have 17 presidential polls today including a number of swing states. In Florida and Ohio, McCain is ahead by 5 points and 4 points respectively. Nevada and New Hampshire are essentially tied. Virginia is hard to say, with three polls, but is probably close to a tie. Surprisingly North Carolina is close, too, with McCain ahead only 50% to 47%, well within the margin of error. Obama has been registering voters like crazy there, which may be part of the reason.

The national polls all have Obama ahead as follows: Gallup (Obama +4), Hotline (Obama +5), Opinion Research (Obama +4), Rasmussen (Obama +1).

We have four Senate polls today. One is very surprising. State senator Kay Hagan (D) has taken the lead over Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC), 51% to 45%. The DSCC has been running ads all over the state showing that Dole is 93rd in effectivity in the Senate. The ad is apparently having an effect. In Minnesota, it is getting very close. Initially, a lot of people laughed at Al Franken (a former comedian), but he is getting more serious now. The latest poll puts Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) ahead 48% to 47%. Independent Dean Barkley is at 3% and doesn't appear to be much of a factor.

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