Job Losses Accelerate

There is little doubt that the next President is going to have a full-blown recession on his hands. Many companies are already laying off employees. Even Merck has cut 7200 jobs already, for example, and drug companies are generally not affected much by recessions as people under financial pressure cut out vacations quickly but not their medicines so much. Half a million people per week are filing for unemployment insurance. All this news just before the election really focuses the voters' attention on which candidate will manage the economy better. Iraq, terrorism, and gay marriage are definitely on the back burner.

Palin's Clothes Are Becoming a Wardrobe Malfunction

When the RNC decided to tell Sarah Palin to go shopping at its expense it was undoubtedly expecting to get a sexy hot chick who would impress the hell out of Joe Sixpack and his cousin, Joe-the-Plumber. Instead, her $150,000 shopping spree has become a news story in itself. After first appearing on Politico, it has since been reported by the Washington Post, the NY Times, the LA Times, CNN, Fox News, and thousands of other outlets. Go to Google and type: Sarah Palin $150,000. You will get over 100,000 hits. The general theme of the articles is that her claim to being just an ordinary hockey mom doesn't fit well with buying $150,000 worth of clothes. Only a couple of outlets mention the additional bill of over $20,000 for makeup artists for September. In addition to sifting through the RNC filing (where this data came from), Politico also went through the DNC filing to see if there was anything similar. There wasn't. Obama and Biden are wearing their own clothes. Some GOP donors are complaining that their donations have not been spent wisely. If you are a fashionista and want to know where Palin buys her clothes, here is the list.

Candidates Stands on the Issues Compared

Although the issues, except for the economy, aren't getting much attention, CQ Politics has produced a nice side-by-side comparison of Barack Obama and John McCain's stands on abortion, the economy, education, energy, health care, the Iraq war, the judiciary, and trade. The table includes not only the candidates' stated positions, but also how they have actually voted on bills in the Senate.

The Punditocracy's Seven Biggest Blunders of 2008

Salon.com has a great piece on the seven worst blunders the TV talking heads have made this year. They are:

1. Sarah Palin was a brilliant pick as McCain's running mate.
2. Choosing Steve Schmidt to run McCain's campaign was a stroke of genius.
3. Gas prices on election day will determine who wins.
4. Obama should have taken public financing.
5. Obama was guilty of hubris for contesting North Carolina and other red states.
6. Obama will hurt Democrats downticket.
7. The Democratic PUMA (Party Unity My Ass) women will destroy Obama.

Jury in Sen. Ted Stevens Trial Begins Deliberations

The 12-person jury in the trial of Sen. Ted Stevens began deliberations yesterday. However, at 4:25 P.M. they asked the judge to be released for the day due to stress. The judge quickly agreed. The jurors will continue deliberating today. If Stevens is found guilty of having accepting lavish gifts and then concealing them on his Senate disclosure forms, his career as a senator will surely be finished.

Speculation about Supreme Court Nominees Increases

USA Today has a front page story about the Supreme Court. It is widely expected that three liberal justices will step down during the next four years, albeit for different reasons. John Paul Stevens might step down due to his age (88). Ruth Bader Ginsburg might step down due to her health (she was operated on for cancer). David Souter just doesn't like living in Washington. The article names Paul Clement, Deborah Cook, Maureen Mahoney, Michael McConnell, Diane Sykes, and Larry Thompson as potential McCain appointees. Potential Obama appointees include Elena Kagan, Harold Kohm, Deval Patrick, Sonia Sotomayor, Cass Sunstein, and Diane Wood. Not surprisingly most are in their 40s or early 50s to ensure a long tenure (30-40 years).

State of the State Legislatures

In most states, the entire state house and part of the state senate is up election this year. The state legislatures are important because many laws are state laws and also because state legislatures are the bodies that will draw (i.e., gerrymander) the congressional district boundaries in 2010. A hard-fought presidential election could easily have ramifications downticket for candidates for the state legislature. Here is the current partisan composition of all 99 chambers of the state legislatures. With the exception of Nebraska, all states have a state senate and a state house (called the assembly in some states). Nebraska has a nonpartisan unicameral legislature. The data come from the National Conference of State Legislatures Website.

Obama Continues to Lead Nationally

The race appears to be tightening a bit nationally as Obama's average lead in the national polls has slipped to 5.7 points. Here are the polls.

Today's Polls

We have 15 presidential polls today. Mason-Dixon says Florida is a statistical tie. In North Carolina, which has emerged as a surprising swing state, Obama continues to have a tiny, statistically insignificant, lead, but the mere fact that it is close is amazing given that Bush won the state twice, by margins of 12 points and 13 points, respectively. Two polls in Virginia are far apart. Mason-Dixon, which is based in nearby D.C., puts Obama 2 points ahead, whereas Opinion Research says he is 10 points ahead. Virginia is especially important because its polls close at 7 P.M., the earliest closing in the nation, and if the networks call Virginia for Obama at, say, 8 P.M., the election is de facto over, even though polls are still open in many states.

Also worth noting, is the electoral vote score on the "strong" states. Obama has 260 EVs from states where his lead is 10% or more. McCain has 134 EVs from states where he is strong. It is hard to imagine dropping 10 points in any state where Obama now leads by 10 or more. This means he has to pick up only 9 or 10 more EVs somewhere, and Virginia and Colorado look like good candidates. In contrast, McCain has to shake up the entire map by doing something drastic. But what can he do at this point? Ask Palin to resign from the ticket and replace her with Romney? Obama would say he is being erratic again. The best he can hope for is some external event that works in his favor.

We also have three Senate polls. In Kentucky, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is ahead of challenger Bruce Lunsford (D) according to two polls. Research 2000 says he is 4 points ahead and Rasmussen makes that 7 points. In North Carolina, Kay Hagan (D) has an insignificant lead over Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) but just 1 point.

Over in the House, there are two polls. One of them is in the hotly contested WA-08 race, in which former Microsoft manager Darcy Burner (D) has taken a 4-point lead over the incumbent, Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA).

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