State-by-State Overview of What to Expect Tuesday

Chuck Todd of MSNBC gives a rundown of what to expect in all 50 states. Some highlights:

Republican Senate Candidates Abandon McCain

Republican candidates for the Senate in Oregon, Louisiana, North Carolina and elsewhere have de facto given up on John McCain and are urging voters to support them as a counterweight to President Obama. They say that one-party rule is bad for the country. Interestingly enough, in 2004, when Republican control of Congress was assured, few Republicans were advocating a vote for John Kerry in order to prevent the dreaded one-party rule. In 2000, 85% of the people voted for the same party for the Senate as for President, so in practice, people do not really split their tickets just to give each party some power. In fact, when Congress and the White House are controlled by different parties, everyone bemoans "the gridlock in Washington." (2004 data weren't available).

North Carolina Senate Race Heats Up

In what appears to be a desperation move, Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) has been running an ad suggesting her opponent, state senator Kay Hagan (D) is an atheist. Hagan denies this but it brings to mind Colin Powell's remarks when he endorsed Barack Obama. He said that there are rumors that Obama is a Muslim and they are not true. Then he added: "What if he is? Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country?" Kay Hagan is not an atheist, but what if she were? Is there something wrong with being an atheist in this country? Seems like the same rules ought to apply.

Ronald Reagan's Son Endorses Obama

While endorsements generally don't swing a lot of votes, it is certainly embarrassing for Republicans who worship Ronald Reagan to have Reagan's son now formally endorse Barack Obama.

Obama Still Leading Nationally

Obama's national lead is currently at 6.3%, about the same as it has been all week. If he wins the popular vote by 6%, he will most likely carry nearly all the swing states. Here are today's numbers.

Today's Polls

We have 30 presidential polls today. Arizona is surprisingly close and Obama is running some ads there, but McCain should still win his home state in the end. Yet another poll (from ARG) shows Obama ahead in Colorado, 52% to 45%. With the Kerry states in the bag along with Iowa and New Mexico, a win in Colorado means that nothing else matters. Georgia is getting closer, but McCain will probably hold this one.. Missouri is a real tossup. If it goes for McCain and Obama wins, it loses its hallowed bellwether status. North Carolina is still too close to call. McCain made a real effort to win Pennsylvania, but it is not paying off. Obama's solid lead there is stable.

We also have 29 Senate polls, almost as many as for the presidency. It is increasingly looking like the real battle will be whether the Democrats get 60 seats in the Senate. Truth be told, while 60 is better for them than 59, few cloture votes go strictly along party lines. In Alaska, convicted felon Ted Stevens' long career is finished. In Georgia, Sen Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) is hanging on, but if he comes in below 50%, there will be a runoff Dec. 4. Just imagine what will happen if the Democrats win 59 seats and the whole country is focused on this one Senate runoff in December. Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) has taken the lead again in the very tight Minnesota Senate race. Finally, Jeff Merkley (D) has taken a substantial lead over Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR).

We also have seven House polls. Stevens' problems are taking their toll on Rep. Don Young (R-AK). It looks like he will go down to defeat as well for the at-large seat in Alaska. In NH-01, Carol Shea-Porter is leading, even though she initially refused DCCC help (but took it later). In Wyoming, Cynthis Lummis seems to be pulling away in what appeared to be a close race but probably won't be.

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