We have new polls in both Indiana and North Carolina today, as well as one in Oregon.
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Indiana
Rasmussen
Apr. 29
46%
41%
Indiana
TeleResearch
Apr. 29
48%
38%
North Carolina
Zogby
May 01
34%
50%
North Carolina
Research 2000
Apr. 30
44%
51%
North Carolina
Mason-Dixon
Apr. 29
42%
49%
Oregon
SurveyUSA
Apr. 30
44%
50%
We also have some general election polls.
State
Clinton
McCain
Start
End
Pollster
Florida
49%
41%
Apr 23
Apr 29
Quinnipiac U.
New Hampshire
44%
47%
Apr 30
Apr 30
Rasmussen
Ohio
48%
38%
Apr 23
Apr 29
Quinnipiac U.
Pennsylvania
51%
37%
Apr 23
Apr 29
Quinnipiac U.
Indiana
42%
42%
Apr 30
May 01
Zogby
State
Obama
McCain
Start
End
Pollster
Florida
43%
44%
Apr 23
Apr 29
Quinnipiac U.
New Hampshire
41%
51%
Apr 30
Apr 30
Rasmussen
Ohio
42%
43%
Apr 23
Apr 29
Quinnipiac U.
Pennsylvania
47%
38%
Apr 23
Apr 29
Quinnipiac U.
Finally, here are all the polls for both Indiana and North Carolina for the past two weeks.
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Indiana
Rasmussen
Apr. 29
46%
41%
Indiana
TeleResearch
Apr. 29
48%
38%
Indiana
SurveyUSA
Apr. 27
52%
43%
Indiana
Research 2000
Apr. 24
47%
48%
Indiana
Howey-Gauge
Apr. 24
45%
47%
Indiana
ARG
Apr. 24
50%
45%
Indiana
Selzer
Apr. 23
38%
41%
Indiana
Indiana U.
Apr. 16
45%
50%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
North Carolina
Zogby
May 1
34%
50%
North Carolina
Research 2000
Apr. 30
44%
51%
North Carolina
Mason-Dixon
Apr. 29
42%
49%
North Carolina
Insider Advantage
Apr. 29
44%
42%
North Carolina
SurveyUSA
Apr. 28
44%
49%
North Carolina
Rasmussen
Apr. 28
37%
51%
North Carolina
ARG
Apr. 27
42%
52%
North Carolina
SurveyUSA
Apr. 21
41%
50%
Pesident Bush is the least popular President since polling began in the 1940s.
According to a new
CNN poll,
71% of Americans disapprove of the way he is doing his job. No President has ever topped 70% before, not even
Richard Nixon before he resigned. This is going to put John McCain on the spot in September.
Does he want to allow Bush to speak at the Republican National Convention? The poll numbers suggest telling
Bush to go cut some brush on his "ranch" (which is just a normal house without any livestock) but the 29%
who think Bush is OK are a key part of the Republican base and they have their doubts about McCain to start with.
Insulting the President isn't going to win their hearts and minds.
Obama has now thrown Rev. Wright under the bus. Is McCain going to do the same with Bush?
Presidents have to make tough choices and this one will be watched closely.
If McCain tells Bush to stay in Texas he may gain some independents at the price of alienating his base.
If he invites Bush to speak, the Democrats are going to yell "Bush III" which will scare the independents.
Maybe McCain could compromise and invite Bush to speak at 3 A.M. Central Time to an empty hall?
Several supers went public yesterday.
Also one super switched in an especially painful moment for Hillary Clinton.
Joe Andrew, former chairman of the DNC appointed by then-President Bill Clinton jumped ship and
announced he is now for Obama.
Below is the current score from seven different sources.
The mean of these numbers is Clinton 1596, Obama 1733 for a total of 3329 delegates accounted for so far.
The number of delegates is expected to be 4047 (but could change depending on the special elections in
MS-01 and LA-06 later this month as well as potential seating of Florida and Michigan). This means that 718 delegates are yet to announce or be chosen. To
reach 2024, Obama needs 291 and Clinton needs 428. In terms of percentages, Obama needs 41% of the rest
and Clinton needs 60% of the rest.
Actually, it is tougher for Clinton than that appears. North Carolina and Indiana vote on Tuesday.
Suppose Obama wins 55% of North Carolina's 115 pledged delegates for a total of 63 and Clinton wins 55% of Indiana's pledged delegates for a total
of 40. Then Clinton will have 1636 and Obama will have 1796 with 615 left to go. Then as of Wednesday, Obama will need 228/615 = 37% of the rest
and Clinton will need 388/615 = 63%. The remaining "states" are Guam (4 delegates), West Virginia (28 delegates), Kentucky (51 delegates), Oregon (52 delegates),
Puerto Rico (55 delegates), Montana (16 delegates) and South Dakota (15 delegates).
Clinton is expected to Win West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico and Obama is expected to win Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota.
Nobody has a clue
who is going to win Guam. In fact, probably 99% of the voters don't know what it is, where it is, or why it has something to do with Democrats.
Actually, it is in the southern Mariana Islands in the Pacific Ocean, which are in the news quite a bit because they are one of the few places you can
run a sweatshop (especially in the northern Marianas) and exploit workers and still get a "Made in U.S.A."
label on the clothes you make there. The Marianas are a U.S. territory.
Guam was won from Spain in the war of 1898. The rest were acquired as booty from defeated Japan
after WWII.
In a special election in LA-06, it looks like Democrats are poised to take a heavily Republican seat
as Don Cazayoux (D) is leading Woody Jenkins (R) 50% to 41% according to a new SurveyUSA poll.
The election is tomorrow.
Check back Monday for a detailed analysis of how delegates are chosen in Indiana.
Welcome
FAQs
Donations
Icons for bloggers
Previous elections
Electoral coll. graph
Cartogram
Animated maps
Data galore
All Senate races
Hot House races
Political websites
Articles and books
Political humor