Five years ago today, May 1, 2003, President Bush stood on the deck of the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln
under a banner that read "Mission Accomplish" to announce that
major combat operations have ended.
That may be so, but minor ones are still going on five years later and they are likely to have a major impact on the election.
A recent Gallup poll
shows that a record 63% of Americans now think it was a mistake sending troops to Iraq.
Right now all the news is about Rev. Jeremiah Wright but by October that will be old news and Iraq will still be an issue.
John McCain's oft-repeated comment that it is OK with him if American troops are in Iraq for 100 years
is not going to help him no matter how often he points out that American troops have been in Germany and Japan for 60 years.
To McCain's credit, when he says this, he always adds "provided there are no American casualties," but many people may not believe we
will soon achieve a situation in Iraq with no Americans being killed or injured. Talking Points Memo has put together a
video montage showing McCain addressing this question
over and over, not always consistently.
Here is a graph of the price of contracts for the Democratic nomination on the
Iowa Election Markets.
On March 3, 2007, about 14 months ago, a Clinton contract to win $100 cost $44 and an Obama contract cost
$37. Now they cost $21 and $74, respectively. Clearly most bettors think Obama will get the nomination.
The graph also shows Edwards and ROF (Rest Of Field).
Want to know what the candidates will look like in four years if they win and have the most
stressful job in the world? Photoshop experts at PopPhoto give you a sneak
preview.
Want to vote on who should be McCain's Veep? Go to
CQ Politics VP madness site and
choose from 32 potential candidates.
One new primary poll today and it shows the North Carolina primary to be a statistical tie, with Clinton
perhaps a hair ahead. If this is true, this is good news for Clinton since a win in North Carolina will
really make the superdelegates sit up and take notice. But other polls have shown Obama way ahead in the Tar
Heel state.
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
North Carolina
Insider Advantage
Apr. 29
44%
42%
Two new general election polls. McCain will win Arizona (surprise) and any Democrat will win New Jersey
(more surprise).
State
Clinton
McCain
Start
End
Pollster
Arizona
37
53
Apr 24
Apr 27
Arizona State U.
New Jersey
52
38
Apr 24
Apr 28
Monmouth U.
State
Obama
McCain
Start
End
Pollster
Arizona
38
47
Apr 24
Apr 27
Arizona State U.
New Jersey
56
32
Apr 24
Apr 28
Monmouth U.
The polling results for all primaries and caucuses are available as a
Web page
and in
.csv format.
Half a dozen supers announced yesterday, splitting roughly 50-50. Basically, this
helps Obama since if all the remaining delegates split 50-50, his current lead in delegates remains intact
and there are fewer supers left to help Clinton catch up.
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