After Barack Obama's narrow win over Hillary Clinton in the primary, some
Clinton supporters were very disappointed and said they would vote for John
McCain over their former nemesis, Obama. They resisted calls for party unity
under the banner of being PUMA (Party Unity My Ass) voters.
However, upon futher inspection of the what the alternatives were (a candidate who
opposes almost everything Clinton stands for or not voting), most of them have
grudgingly reconsidered. A California
Field Poll
shows that 80% of the former Clinton supporters in California are now on board for Obama and 8% are
for McCain. California women support Obama 2 to 1.
NY-13 is the congressional district that keeps on giving.
Between a drunken congressman with two families, a GOP candidate whose son wanted to run against him so he wouldn't
be elected, and the Republicans filing a dead man as their candidate,
what else could happen in this Staten Island-based district?
Well, the Republicans, or more accurately, some of them, have found a candidate in former assemblyman
Robert Straniere. Except the district's most prominent Republican politician, former representative Guy Molinari,
called him a liar and said: "I'm going to do everything in my power to stop him." Such words are not likely
to be helpful. It is hard to imagine this district staying Republican when one of the
most respected Republicans in New York State is violently opposed to the candidate.
Swing State Project has
compiled the
fundraising reports
for House candidates who have filed their second quarter reports already. Here are the data as a
.csv file.
The whole West Coast shows up today in the polling data. As usual, Obama is way ahead in all three states.
Also as expected, McCain is going to coast to a huge victory in
Kansas, where Obama's mother is from.
State
Obama
McCain
Start
End
Pollster
California
54%
30%
Jul 08
Jul 14
Field Poll
Kansas
32%
52%
Jul 14
Jul 14
Rasmussen
Oregon
46%
37%
Jul 16
Jul 16
Rasmussen
Washington
55%
39%
Jul 13
Jul 15
SurveyUSA
The Senate is a bit more interesting. The Oregon race between Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) and state House
speaker Jeff Merkley is expected to be close and it is. It is a statistical tie, with Merkley 2 points ahead.
This is the first time Merkley is ahead. With Obama expected to win a huge victory in Oregon, a typical
blue state, he might have enough coattails to pull in Merkley.
State
Democrat
D-pct
Republican
R-pct
Start
End
Pollster
Kansas
Jim Slattery
30%
Pat Roberts*
57%
Jul 14
Jul 14
Rasmussen
Oregon
Jeff Merkley
43%
Gordon Smith*
41%
Jul 15
Jul 15
Rasmussen
South Dakota
Tim Johnson*
60%
Joel Dykstra
35%
Jul 09
Jul 09
Rasmussen
One other Senate poll is worth commenting on: South Dakota. The Republicans should file this one
under the heading: "Lost opportunities." South Dakota is one of the reddest states and Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD)
barely squeaked in under the wire in 2002. Then he had a cerebral hemorrhage in Dec. 2006 and can't campaign much.
NRSC chairman Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) was unable to convince Gov. Mike Rounds (R-SD) to
run for the Senate and was also unable to find any other top-tier candidate. This is where the difference between
DSCC chairman Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Ensign shows up. One way or another, in every competitive race
in 2006 and 2008 Schumer managed to cajole, browbeat, or otherwise get a strong candidate into the race. That is how he
won six seats in 2006 and is almost sure to win New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico this time
and will put up good fights in Alaska, Oregon, Minnesota,
North Carolina, Maine, and Mississippi (Wicker) as well. The difference
between the two is that Schumer is a Brooklyn street fighter who clearly relishes the job whereas Ensign is a
former veterinarian who took the NRSC job as a favor to his Republican colleagues, none of whom wanted it.
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