The AP has a good
analysis of
the presidential campaign. Basically, John McCain is not well organized yet and doesn't
have a clear message of why people should vote for him other than he has a lot of experience. But if experience
were golden, George H.W. Bush would have beaten Bill Clinton in 1992 and Bob Dole would have beaten him in 1996.
McCain is also short of cash and has to spend a lot of time in red states raising money whereas Barack Obama is
campaigning in swing states and even red states. He spent the Independence Day holiday in Montana, a state that
has voted consistently Republican for President for years (although the governor and both senators are Democrats).
McCain has been calling himself the underdog pf late, something a bit odd considering he is also touting his
long government experience and his opponent's lack thereof. Still, summer is a sleepy time and McCain's new
de facto campaign manager, Steve Schmidt, a Karl Rove pupil, has at least two months to turn things around before
the campaign starts for real in September.
Rasmussen ran a poll asking voters if they were conservative, moderate, or liberal on fiscal issues and on
social issues. The largest group, fiscal conservatives/social conservatives, amounted to 24% of the
sample. They favored McCain 82% to 13%. The largest six categories are as follows (Rasmussen didn't report on the
others).
Fiscal Issues
Social Issues
Group size
Obama
McCain
Conservative
Conservative
24%
13%
82%
Moderate
Moderate
20%
59%
30%
Moderate
Liberal
15%
80%
13%
Conservative
Moderate
10%
25%
67%
Moderate
Conservative
10%
40%
51%
Liberal
Liberal
9%
91%
6%
Probably the most startling result is how conservative the country has become.
The conservative/conservative group is almost three times as large as the liberal/liberal group.
In the 1960s, under Presidents Kennedy and Johnson, few people identified as conservatives and
the main thrust of government was on civil rights legislation and Johnson's ill-fated war on poverty.
In the sense of changing the nation's mindset, the Reagan revolution has been a resounding success.
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