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News from the Votemaster

Mouseovers have been added to the map. Put your mouse cursor on a state to see the three most recent polls (if they exist).

We have six (!) new polls of New Hampshire today. The polls ought to be pretty accurate since probably every voter in the whole state has been polled by now. Here are the averages. For the Democrats:

      Barack Obama: 33.2%
      Hillary Clinton: 31.2%
      John Edwards: 19.2%

For the Republicans

      John McCain: 32.7%
      Mitt Romney: 27.8%
      Mike Huckabee: 12.0%
      Rudy Giuliani: 9.6%
      Fred Thompson: 2.5%

Unfortunately, the polls are not accurate at all, but for a different reason than in Iowa. About 40% of the electorate consists of independents and they can ask for either a Democratic ballot or a Republican ballot (but not both, of course). Many of them like both Obama and McCain, so the race may be decided by how many choose a Democratic ballot and how many choose a Republican ballot. We won't know how they broke until Tuesday. That choice chould have much larger implications. Suppose the eventual nominees are Obama and McCain. Then Tuesday's race could be the first data point on how independents view a head-to-head between those two. Clearly it is going to an exciting race in New Hampshire.

The Republicans held their caucuses yesterday in Wyoming. Romney got 67% of the vote, Thompson got 25%, and Duncan Hunter got 8%. Nobody campaigned there much and nobody seems to be paying much attention now. And Wyoming isn't just any old state, it is Dick Cheney's home state.

The New Hampshire polling data is below. The complete data for all states is here.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee
New Hampshire ARG Jan. 5 26% 38% 20% 7% 39% 25% 1% 14%
New Hampshire Research 2000 Jan. 5 33% 34% 23% 8% 35% 29% 3% 13%
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire Jan. 5 33% 33% 20% 14% 33% 27% 1% 11%
New Hampshire Rasmussen Jan. 5 27% 37% 19% 8% 31% 26% 5% 11%
New Hampshire Zogby Jan. 4 32% 28% 20% 9% 32% 30% 3% 12%
New Hampshire Suffolk U. Jan. 4 36% 29% 13% 11% 26% 30% 2% 11%
New Hampshire Suffolk U. Jan. 3 37% 25% 15% 9% 25% 29% 2% 13%
New Hampshire Zogby Jan. 3 32% 26% 20% 9% 34% 30% 2% 10%
New Hampshire Suffolk U. Jan. 2 39% 23% 17% 9% 28% 25% 2% 12%
New Hampshire ARG Jan. 1 35% 31% 15% 8% 35% 25% 1% 12%
New Hampshire Suffolk U. Jan. 1 37% 20% 16% 9% 29% 25% 2% 10%
New Hampshire Suffolk U. Dec. 31 31% 22% 14% 14% 31% 25% 2% 9%
New Hampshire Franklin Pierce Coll. Dec. 31 32% 28% 19% 10% 37% 31% 2% 5%
New Hampshire LA Times Dec. 26 30% 32% 18% 14% 21% 34% 4% 9%
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire Dec. 20 28% 30% 14% 14% 25% 28% 3% 10%
New Hampshire Rasmussen Dec. 19 31% 28% 18% 18% 13% 27% 3% 11%
New Hampshire Gallup Dec. 19 32% 32% 18% 11% 27% 34% 4% 9%
New Hampshire ARG Dec. 19 38% 24% 15% 16% 26% 26% 4% 11%
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire Dec. 17 38% 26% 14% 16% 22% 34% 1% 10%
New Hampshire Opinion Dynamics Dec. 13 34% 25% 15% 16% 20% 33% 2% 11%
New Hampshire Research 2000 Dec. 12 31% 32% 18% 18% 17% 31% 3% 9%
New Hampshire Rasmussen Dec. 11 28% 31% 17% 17% 19% 31% 4% 10%
New Hampshire Suffolk U. Dec. 10 33% 26% 15% 17% 19% 31% 4% 10%
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire Dec. 10 31% 30% 16% 19% 19% 32% 1% 9%
New Hampshire Mason-Dixon Dec. 6 30% 27% 10% 17% 16% 25% 6% 11%
New Hampshire Zogby Dec. 3 32% 21% 16% 15% 17% 35% 3% 10%
New Hampshire Washington Post Dec. 3 35% 29% 17% 16% 20% 37% 4% 9%
New Hampshire Marist Coll. Dec. 2 37% 24% 18% 18% 18% 31% 4% 11%
New Hampshire Opiinion Dynamics Nov. 29 30% 23% 12% 19% 21% 29% 4% 7%
New Hampshire ARG Nov. 29 34% 23% 17% 22% 11% 36% 3% 13%
New Hampshire Rasmussen Nov. 29 33% 26% 15% 15% 15% 34% 3% 14%
New Hampshire Suffolk U. Nov. 27 34% 22% 15% 20% 13% 34% 2% 7%
New Hampshire Princeton Survey Nov. 25 38% 19% 15% 16% 18% 33% 4% 5%
New Hampshire NY Times Nov. 12 37% 22% 9% 16% 16% 34% 5% 6%
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire Nov. 7 35% 21% 15% 20% 17% 32% 3% 5%
New Hampshire Marist Coll. Nov. 6 38% 26% 14% 23% 14% 34% 5% 7%
New Hampshire Rasmussen Nov. 5 34% 24% 15% 17% 16% 32% 7% 10%
New Hampshire ARG Oct. 29 40% 22% 10% 23% 17% 30% 5%  
New Hampshire Saint Anselm Coll. Oct. 21 43% 22% 14% 22% 15% 32% 5%  
New Hampshire Marist Coll. Oct. 9 43% 21% 12% 21% 17% 27% 10%  
New Hampshire Zogby Sep. 28 38% 23% 12% 21% 16% 24% 7%  
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire Sep. 24 41% 19% 11% 22% 17% 23% 12%  
New Hampshire Franklin Pierce Coll. Sep. 14 36% 18% 12% 23% 14% 30% 8%  
New Hampshire LA Times Sep. 10 35% 16% 16% 23% 12% 28% 11%  
New Hampshire ARG Aug. 29 37% 17% 14% 23% 12% 27% 8%  
New Hampshire Hart/McLaughlin July 26 36% 19% 15% 17% 16% 33% 13%  
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire July 17 36% 27% 9% 20% 12% 34% 13%  
New Hampshire Research 2000 July 11 33% 25% 15% 21% 18% 28% 11%  
New Hampshire ARG June 30 34% 25% 11% 19% 21% 27% 10%  
New Hampshire Suffolk U. June 24 37% 19% 9% 22% 13% 26% 13%  
New Hampshire Mason-Dixon June 7 26% 21% 18% 15% 16% 27% 12%  
New Hampshire Franklin Pierce Coll. June 6 41% 17% 15% 18% 17% 27% 9%  
New Hampshire Zogby May 16 28% 26% 15% 19% 19% 35%    
New Hampshire ARG Apr. 29 37% 14% 26% 17% 29% 24%    
New Hampshire Zogby Apr. 3 29% 23% 23% 19% 25% 25%    
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire Apr. 3 27% 20% 21% 29% 29% 17%    
New Hampshire ARG Mar. 23 37% 23% 20% 19% 23% 17%    
New Hampshire Franklin Pierce Coll. Mar. 12 32% 25% 16% 28% 29% 22%    
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson Huckabee


-- The Votemaster
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