Election 2008: Presidential, Senate and House Races Updated Daily

Jan. 05

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News from the Votemaster

Mouseovers have been added to the map. Put your mouse cursor on a state to see the three most recent polls (if they exist).

While Mississippi is pretty far from New Hampshire, there is political action there, too. Former governor, Ronnie Musgrove (D) is going to challenge newly appointed senator Roger Wicker (R) who replaced the recently retired Sen. Trent Lott. Musgrove has won a statewide election in Mississippi and Wicker has not so this could be a real horse race. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), chairman of the DSCC, has plenty of money to spend on races like this, whereas his counterpart at the NRSC, Sen. John Ensign (R-NV), has a much smaller bank balance and has to be more judicious in funding races. Ensign is surely sore at Lott for making him spend money on what was a safe seat until a week ago. State law calls for a special election, but the governor, Haley Barbour (R) and the attorney general, Jim Hood (D), disagree on when state law requires the election to be held. Hood wants it quickly (which favors the much better-known Musgrove) and Barbour wants it in November (to give Wicker time to become better known).

The bashing of Mike Huckabee--from the Republicans--has begun. See here, here, here, here, here, and here. Not a peep from the Democrats. They like Huckabee. They think he's in over his head and will be easy prey in November, in the unlikely event he gets that far. It's the Republican establishment that hates Huckabee. The reason is clear but the media are scared to talk about it. The truth is what the current administration really cares about is tax cuts, expecially big ones for the rich. What was the first thing George Bush after Jan. 20, 2001? Tax cuts, including lowering the top marginal rate from 39.6% to 35%. If you are making $10 million a year, that's $460,000 extra in your pocket. After Bush's 2004 victory, he said that the election gave him political capital and he intended to spend it. So what did he do? He spent two months traveling around the country trying to sell a plan to privatize (read: phase out) social security. He didn't spend two months trying to get a constitutional amendment banning abortions or forbidding same-sex marriages. He could have, but didn't want to spend his political capital that way. Even when pleasing the Base was cheap he didn't do it. Remember that his long-time friend, Harriet Miers, was his first Supreme Court nominee, and he asked her to withdraw only after the Base protested loudy. The Republican party's dirty little secret is that upper management really doesn't care much about the social issues; they care about taxes. They trot out the social issues just before each election to whip the Base up into a frenzy and conveniently forget about them after winning. Huckabee is a real threat because he sincerely believes in the Bible. He's not just making it up to get votes. He's become their Frankenstein monster and must be eliminated.

While it has been completely under the radar, today Wyoming holds Republican caucuses (Democrats hold theirs March 8). Almost no candidate has been to Wyoming, in part because it is a huge state, with few delegates in the middle of nowhere. It does have great scenic beauty, however. A candidate could have gone there for some R&R under the guise of campaigning for the Wyoming caucuses, but it didn't happen. Nevertheless, Wyoming may give us a clue as to what Western Republicans are thinking in the absence of a barrage of TV ads, flyers, and e-mails.

Below are the New Hampshire polls. The complete polls for all states are here. Iowa is always hard to predict because the turnout is so low (while 2008 was double 2004, it was still a small fraction of the electorate). In Hampshire turnout is always high, but it has a different problem: it is an open primary. When a voter walks in, the poll worker says: "Good day sir/madam, would you like a Democratic ballot or a Republican ballot?" If the answer is: "I dunno, what do you think?" the poll worker is kind of stuck. About 40% of the New Hampshire voters are registered as independent and many of them like both Barack Obama and John McCain. If they ask for a Democratic ballot, it helps Obama and hurts McCain, and vice versa. All the polls show that large numbers of New Hampshire independents like both men but haven't decided which ballot they want yet. This makes polling unpredictable.

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson	Huckabee
New Hampshire	Suffolk U.	Jan. 3	37%	25%	15%	9%	25%	29%	2%	13%
New Hampshire	Zogby	Jan. 3	32%	26%	20%	9%	34%	30%	2%	10%
New Hampshire	Suffolk U.	Jan. 2	39%	23%	17%	9%	28%	25%	2%	12%
New Hampshire	ARG	Jan. 1	35%	31%	15%	8%	35%	25%	1%	12%
New Hampshire	Suffolk U.	Jan. 1	37%	20%	16%	9%	29%	25%	2%	10%
New Hampshire	Suffolk U.	Dec. 31	31%	22%	14%	14%	31%	25%	2%	9%
New Hampshire	Franklin Pierce Coll.	Dec. 31	32%	28%	19%	10%	37%	31%	2%	5%
New Hampshire	LA Times	Dec. 26	30%	32%	18%	14%	21%	34%	4%	9%
New Hampshire	U. of New Hampshire	Dec. 20	28%	30%	14%	14%	25%	28%	3%	10%
New Hampshire	Rasmussen	Dec. 19	31%	28%	18%	18%	13%	27%	3%	11%
New Hampshire	Gallup	Dec. 19	32%	32%	18%	11%	27%	34%	4%	9%
New Hampshire	ARG	Dec. 19	38%	24%	15%	16%	26%	26%	4%	11%
New Hampshire	U. of New Hampshire	Dec. 17	38%	26%	14%	16%	22%	34%	1%	10%
New Hampshire	Opinion Dynamics	Dec. 13	34%	25%	15%	16%	20%	33%	2%	11%
New Hampshire	Research 2000	Dec. 12	31%	32%	18%	18%	17%	31%	3%	9%
New Hampshire	Rasmussen	Dec. 11	28%	31%	17%	17%	19%	31%	4%	10%
New Hampshire	Suffolk U.	Dec. 10	33%	26%	15%	17%	19%	31%	4%	10%
New Hampshire	U. of New Hampshire	Dec. 10	31%	30%	16%	19%	19%	32%	1%	9%
New Hampshire	Mason-Dixon	Dec. 6	30%	27%	10%	17%	16%	25%	6%	11%
New Hampshire	Zogby	Dec. 3	32%	21%	16%	15%	17%	35%	3%	10%
New Hampshire	Washington Post	Dec. 3	35%	29%	17%	16%	20%	37%	4%	9%
New Hampshire	Marist Coll.	Dec. 2	37%	24%	18%	18%	18%	31%	4%	11%
New Hampshire	Opiinion Dynamics	Nov. 29	30%	23%	12%	19%	21%	29%	4%	7%
New Hampshire	ARG	Nov. 29	34%	23%	17%	22%	11%	36%	3%	13%
New Hampshire	Rasmussen	Nov. 29	33%	26%	15%	15%	15%	34%	3%	14%
New Hampshire	Suffolk U.	Nov. 27	34%	22%	15%	20%	13%	34%	2%	7%
New Hampshire	Princeton Survey	Nov. 25	38%	19%	15%	16%	18%	33%	4%	5%
New Hampshire	NY Times	Nov. 12	37%	22%	9%	16%	16%	34%	5%	6%
New Hampshire	U. of New Hampshire	Nov. 7	35%	21%	15%	20%	17%	32%	3%	5%
New Hampshire	Marist Coll.	Nov. 6	38%	26%	14%	23%	14%	34%	5%	7%
New Hampshire	Rasmussen	Nov. 5	34%	24%	15%	17%	16%	32%	7%	10%
New Hampshire	ARG	Oct. 29	40%	22%	10%	23%	17%	30%	5%
New Hampshire	Saint Anselm Coll.	Oct. 21	43%	22%	14%	22%	15%	32%	5%
New Hampshire	Marist Coll.	Oct. 9	43%	21%	12%	21%	17%	27%	10%
New Hampshire	Zogby	Sep. 28	38%	23%	12%	21%	16%	24%	7%
New Hampshire	U. of New Hampshire	Sep. 24	41%	19%	11%	22%	17%	23%	12%
New Hampshire	Franklin Pierce Coll.	Sep. 14	36%	18%	12%	23%	14%	30%	8%
New Hampshire	LA Times	Sep. 10	35%	16%	16%	23%	12%	28%	11%
New Hampshire	ARG	Aug. 29	37%	17%	14%	23%	12%	27%	8%
New Hampshire	Hart/McLaughlin	July 26	36%	19%	15%	17%	16%	33%	13%
New Hampshire	U. of New Hampshire	July 17	36%	27%	9%	20%	12%	34%	13%
New Hampshire	Research 2000	July 11	33%	25%	15%	21%	18%	28%	11%
New Hampshire	ARG	June 30	34%	25%	11%	19%	21%	27%	10%
New Hampshire	Suffolk U.	June 24	37%	19%	9%	22%	13%	26%	13%
New Hampshire	Mason-Dixon	June 7	26%	21%	18%	15%	16%	27%	12%
New Hampshire	Franklin Pierce Coll.	June 6	41%	17%	15%	18%	17%	27%	9%
New Hampshire	Zogby	May 16	28%	26%	15%	19%	19%	35%
New Hampshire	ARG	Apr. 29	37%	14%	26%	17%	29%	24%
New Hampshire	Zogby	Apr. 3	29%	23%	23%	19%	25%	25%
New Hampshire	U. of New Hampshire	Apr. 3	27%	20%	21%	29%	29%	17%
New Hampshire	ARG	Mar. 23	37%	23%	20%	19%	23%	17%
New Hampshire	Franklin Pierce Coll.	Mar. 12	32%	25%	16%	28%	29%	22%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson	Huckabee

-- The Votemaster