More on Minnesota

According to the Minnesota secretary of state, Democrat Al Franken has taken the lead in the Senate recount race against incumbent Norm Coleman (R-MN) by 2623 votes with 95.3% of the precincts recounted. However, this lead should be taken with a grain of salt as the remaining counties are heavily Republican and Coleman could easily catch up as their tallies come in. There are also about 6000 challenges to votes and a fight over the absentee ballots is looming as well.

Chambliss Defeats Martin in Georgia

Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) defeated Democrat Jim Martin in their runoff yesterday so Chambliss will retain his seat in the Senate. He got 57% of the vote to Martin's 43%. The only way for the Democrats to get to 60 seats in the Senate now is for Franken to win and for Obama to appoint to his cabinet a Republican senator from a state with a Democratic governor, such as Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME). However, if Franken wins, the Democrats will have 59 seats, so every single Republican senator will be able to threaten Mitch McConnell with defecting on cloture votes unless McConnell does the senator's bidding. If Coleman wins, McConnell will have a bit more breathing room. Nevertheless, cloture votes rarely go entirely along party lines and majority leader Harry Reid will be able to offer Republican senators various goodies to defect whereas McConnell has little to offer.

Mel Martinez Will Not Seek Reelection in 2010

Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) has announced that he will not seek reelection in 2010. He is the second Republican senator to announce his retirement already. The Martinez announcement is very significant and instantly puts the seat in play. There will certainly be primaries for both parties as Florida is a swing state and both parties have a shot at winning the seat. Former governor Jeb Bush (R) is probably the strongest candidate for the Republicans, but it is not known if he wants the job. The state's chief financial officer, Alex Sink, is a potentially strong Democratic candidate, but there are also a large number of members of Congress who could run.

The other senator who is retiring is Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS). Kansas is a sufficiently Republican state and the Democratic bench is so shallow that the GOP will probably be able to hold this seat. However, there are serious problems in other states. Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA), who will be 80 in 2010 and who has cancer, is likely to face a ferocious primary challenge from the right, which will soften him up for the expected Democratic onslaught in this blue state. Hardball host Chris Matthews is mulling a run as is Gov. Ed Rendell (D-PA). While Matthews has never held elective office, Rendell has been elected governor twice, most recently (2006) by 20 points. He is an experienced politician, having also served as mayor of Philadelphia for 8 years and would be a formiddable opponent.

Pennsylvania isn't the GOP's only problem. Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) is seen as very vulnerable, especially if DSCC chairman Bob Menendez can talk Gov. John Lynch (D-NH) into challenging Gregg. Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) will be 79 in 2010, has health issues and no money in the bank. He might retire. Another possible retirement is Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL), who will be 76 in 2010.

The Democrats are in much better shape. One potential problem is California, where Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA) might challenge Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA). But Boxer is popular in the state and a prodigious fund raiser. California is a very blue state and Schwarzenegger has never faced a top-tier opponent before. Taking out Boxer won't be easy. In Connecticut, if Gov. Jodi Rell (R-CT) takes on Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT), Dodd might have to sweat a bit, but he is a five-term incumbent in a blue state and he will be only 66 in 2010. He will be a tough nut(meg) to crack.

VA-05 Recount Date Set

The recount in VA-05, where Democrat Tom Perriello defeated Rep. Virgil Goode (R-VA) by 745 votes is Dec. 16. It is hoped that it can be completed in one day.

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