| Jan. 16 |  |
|
|
|
| REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES AND CAUCUSES 2008 | Click for Democratic primaries and caucuses |
|
|
Welcome
FAQs
Donations
Icons for bloggers
Previous elections
Electoral coll. graph
Cartogram
Animated maps
Data galore
All Senate races
Hot House races
Political websites
Articles and books
Political humorNews from the Votemaster
Yesterday was the high point of Dennis' Kucinch's run for the White House. He came in third in the Michigan Democratic primary with 3.7% of vote. Unfortunately he trailed Uncommitted, which got 39.9% and Hillary Clinton who got 55.4%. Losing to Uncommitted would have been an embarrassment for Clinton, but Kucinich takes these things in stride. Clinton got more than half the Democratic voters who showed up, so she's probably happy.
On the Republican side, Mitt Romney won an easy victory. Here are the numbers:
Mitt Romney: 38.9%John McCain: 29.7%
Mike Huckabee: 16.1%
Ron Paul: 6.3%
Fred Thompson: 3.7%
Rudy Giuliani: 2.8%
With a solid win here, we now have a situation in which three different Republicans have each have one notch on his belt. Huckabee won Iowa, McCain won New Hampshire, and now Romney won Michigan (Romney also won the Wyoming caucuses, but nobody campaigned there).
What next? This Saturday, Jan. 19, each party has a caucus in Nevada and additionally the Republicans have a primary in South Carolina (the Democratic primary there is Jan. 26). For the Democrats, Nevada is a big deal because it is the first state in the West and it is the only game in town Saturday (except for stud poker, blackjack, baccarat, Texas hold 'em, and quite a few others, actually). The Republicans are more focusing on South Carolina, where Fred Thompson gets to make his first (and probably last) stand. As usual, Giuliani is off at some beach in Florida thinking that coming in fifth or sixth half a dozen times in a row doesn't matter. But the battle between Huckabee, McCain, and Romney will be ferocious. Below are some older polls, but Romney's win yesterday could change a lot.
In a nutshell, Romney is the favorite of the Republican establishment and Wall St. He's a successful multimillionaire and an experienced and competent manager. McCain is the favorite of the national security Republicans. He knows more about military affairs and foreign affairs than all the other candidates in both parties combined. Huckabee is the favorite of the evangelicals. He believes in Jesus, but he doesn't believe in abortion, gay marriage, or evolution. It is going to be wild ride this week.
| State | Pollster | End date | Clinton | Obama | Edwards | Giuliani | McCain | Romney | Thompson | Huckabee |
| South Carolina | Rasmussen | Jan. 13 | 33% | 38% | 17% | 5% | 28% | 17% | 16% | 19% |
| South Carolina | Opinion Dynamics | Jan. 9 | 5% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 18% | |||
| South Carolina | Rasmussen | Jan. 9 | 30% | 42% | 15% | 6% | 27% | 16% | 12% | 24% |
| South Carolina | Insider Advantage | Jan. 7 | 33% | 40% | 15% | 8% | 21% | 14% | 5% | 33% |
| South Carolina | Rasmussen | Jan. 6 | 30% | 42% | 14% | 10% | 21% | 15% | 11% | 28% |
| South Carolina | SurveyUSA | Jan. 6 | 30% | 50% | 16% | 9% | 17% | 19% | 11% | 36% |
| South Carolina | SurveyUSA | Dec. 18 | 41% | 39% | 17% | 12% | 16% | 18% | 15% | 28% |
| South Carolina | CBS News | Dec. 17 | 34% | 35% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 20% | 10% | 28% |
| South Carolina | Rasmussen | Dec. 16 | 33% | 33% | 17% | 11% | 12% | 23% | 12% | 23% |
| South Carolina | Opinion Research | Dec. 12 | 42% | 34% | 16% | 16% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 24% |
| South Carolina | SurveyUSA | Dec. 9 | 44% | 40% | 11% | 13% | 10% | 19% | 18% | 30% |
| South Carolina | Mason-Dixon | Dec. 6 | 28% | 25% | 18% | 17% | 10% | 15% | 14% | 20% |
| South Carolina | Rasmussen | Dec. 4 | 36% | 34% | 13% | 12% | 9% | 18% | 18% | 25% |
| South Carolina | Insider Advantage | Dec. 4 | 22% | 28% | 14% | 17% | 10% | 14% | 17% | 23% |
| South Carolina | ARG | Nov. 29 | 41% | 19% | 18% | 23% | 10% | 21% | 13% | 18% |
| South Carolina | Clemson U. | Nov. 27 | 19% | 17% | 12% | 9% | 11% | 17% | 15% | 13% |
| South Carolina | Princeton Survey | Nov. 25 | 45% | 31% | 10% | |||||
| South Carolina | SurveyUSA | Nov. 11 | 47% | 33% | 10% | 26% | 14% | 20% | 18% | 12% |
| South Carolina | ARG | Oct. 29 | 41% | 19% | 18% | 23% | 32% | 10% | 13% | 5% |
| South Carolina | Winthrop U. | Oct. 28 | 33% | 23% | 10% | 17% | 9% | 17% | 18% | |
| South Carolina | Rasmussen | Sep. 27 | 43% | 30% | 10% | 20% | 11% | 15% | 24% | |
| South Carolina | LA Times | Sep. 10 | 45% | 27% | 7% | 23% | 15% | 9% | 26% | |
| South Carolina | ARG | Aug. 29 | 32% | 21% | 24% | 26% | 12% | 9% | 21% | |
| South Carolina | Clemson U. | Aug. 29 | 26% | 16% | 10% | 18% | 15% | 11% | 19% | |
| South Carolina | ARG | July 30 | 29% | 33% | 18% | 28% | 10% | 7% | 27% | |
| South Carolina | Opinion Research | July 18 | 27% | 27% | 17% | 30% | 21% | 6% | 18% | |
| South Carolina | ARG | June 30 | 37% | 22% | 21% | 22% | 23% | 8% | 19% | |
| South Carolina | Mason-Dixon | June 15 | 25% | 34% | 12% | 21% | 7% | 11% | 25% | |
| South Carolina | Winthrop U. | May 27 | 29% | 21% | 11% | 19% | 14% | 12% | 6% | |
| South Carolina | ARG | Apr. 30 | 36% | 24% | 18% | 23% | 36% | 6% | ||
| South Carolina | Hamilton/McHenry | Apr. 19 | 31% | 27% | 16% | 15% | 24% | 10% | ||
| South Carolina | Zogby | Apr. 17 | 33% | 26% | 21% | 19% | 22% | 10% |
The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.
-- The Votemaster