Election 2008: Presidential, Senate and House Races Updated Daily

Feb. 03

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News: Updated Feb. 03

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News from the Votemaster

CNN has reported that Mitt Romney won the Maine caucuses with 52% vs. 21% for John McCain. Ron Paul came in a strong third at 19%

Barack Obama is rising, but he is racing against the clock. In the states he is campaigning in, he is gaining, but there are only two more days to campaign. Also, even if Obama pulls even with Clinton, the details of how the delegates are apportioned matter. In some states it is proportional to the vote, in others it is by congressional district, etc. It is hard to convert a certain amount of lead to a certain amount of delegates.

On the Republican side, the Mac attack goes on. It looks like John McCain will pick up the lion's share of the delegates Tuesday because conservative Republicans are split between Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. In many states, McCain is expected to get less than half the vote but will get all the delegates due to the Republican party's winner-take-all rules, which were designed to produce precisely this effect--an early nominee. Normally, the winner announces how tough it was and what formidable opponents he had and everyone makes nice and they all fall in line. This effect might not happen in 2008 because so many conservatives as so strongly opposed to McCain due to his principled stands on tax cuts (against), gay marriage amendment (against), illegal immigrants (allow them to become citizens), stem cell research (for), and other hot-button issues. But it is precisely these stands that make him so popular among independents and they make him far and away the strongest Republican general election candidate. It is hard to remember a year in which the core of either party was so virulently against their strongest candidate.

Here are today's polls.

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	McCain	Romney	Huckabee	Paul
Arizona	Rasmussen	Jan. 31	45%	39%	43%	34%	9%	7%
California	Suffolk U.	Feb. 1			39%	32%	8%	4%
California	Zogby	Feb. 2	41%	45%	34%	37%	12%	5%
Delaware	ARG	Feb. 1	44%	42%	41%	35%	7%	5%
Georgia	Zogby	Feb. 2	28%	48%
Missouri	ARG	Feb. 1	42%	44%	29%	27%	31%	4%
Missouri	Rasmussen	Jan. 31	47%	38%	32%	28%	29%	5%
Missouri	Zogby	Feb. 2	44%	43%	36%	22%	27%	4%
New Jersey	Monmouth U.	Feb. 1	50%	36%	55%	23%	7%	3%
New Jersey	Zogby	Feb. 2	43%	42%	54%	23%	6%	4%
New York	Marist Coll.	Jan. 31	54%	38%	61%	24%	6%	5%
New York	Rasmussen	Feb. 1	52%	34%	49%	30%	8%	4%
New York	Zogby	Feb. 2			49%	23%	8%	6%
Tennessee	Crawford Johnson Northcutt	Jan. 29	36%	31%	23%	18%	24%	4%
Tennessee	Rasmussen	Jan. 30	49%	35%	32%	29%	23%	8%

Looking at the January and February polls, here is what the Superduper Tuesday states look like. The most recent poll is always used. If other polls were taken within a week of it, they are all averaged equally.

Democrats

State	Clinton	Obama	Date	Pollster
Alabama	43	42	Jan 31	Insid+Surve+Capit
Arizona	45	39	Jan 31	Rasmussen
California	46	38	Feb 02	Five polls
Colorado	32	34	Jan 23	Mason-Dixon
Connecticut	44	41	Jan 31	ARG+Surve+Rasmu
Delaware	44	42	Feb 01	ARG
Georgia	32	50	Feb 02	Zogby+Insid
Illinois	32	56	Jan 31	ARG+Rasmu
Massachusetts	50	35	Jan 30	Surve+Rasmu
Minnesota	40	33	Jan 27	U. of Minnesota
Missouri	45	42	Feb 02	Four polls
New Jersey	48	39	Feb 02	Four polls
New York	54	35	Feb 01	Four polls
Oklahoma	44	19	Jan 27	SurveyUSA
Tennessee	48	31	Jan 30	Rasmu+Insid+Crawf

Republicans

State	McCain	Romney	Date	Pollster
Alabama	37	18	Jan 31	Four polls
Arizona	43	34	Jan 31	Rasmussen
California	35	28	Feb 02	Six polls
Colorado	24	43	Jan 23	Mason-Dixon
Connecticut	46	27	Jan 31	ARG+Surve+Rasmu
Delaware	41	35	Feb 01	ARG
Georgia	35	34	Jan 30	Insider Advantage
Illinois	41	30	Jan 31	ARG+Rasmu
Massachusetts	29	56	Jan 30	Surve+Rasmu
Minnesota	41	17	Jan 27	U. of Minnesota
Missouri	33	27	Feb 02	Four polls
New Jersey	50	25	Feb 02	Four polls
New York	54	25	Feb 02	Four polls
Oklahoma	37	19	Jan 27	SurveyUSA
Tennessee	29	22	Jan 30	Rasmu+Insid+Crawf

The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

CNN is keeping track of the delegates for the Democrats and for the Republicans. Note that other sources may differ because CNN is trying to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and other unpledged delegates. When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary, but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently. Here is CNN's count:

Delegates

Clinton 232	Obama 158			Needed: 2025
McCain 97	Romney 74	Huckabee 29	Paul 6	Needed: 1191

-- The Votemaster