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News: Updated Feb. 02


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News from the Votemaster

Happy Groundhog day, everyone!

Here is today's batch of polls:

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama McCain Romney Huckabee Paul
Alabama Insider Advantage Jan. 31 46% 40% 37% 14% 35% 5%
Alabama Rasmussen Jan. 31 38% 20% 30% 5%
Alabama SurveyUSA Jan. 31 47% 47% 40% 21% 31% 5%
Connecticut ARG Jan. 31 48% 35% 43% 25% 12% 1%
Connecticut Rasmussen Jan. 27 42% 26% 8% 4%
Connecticut SurveyUSA Jan. 30 44% 48% 53% 31% 6% 5%
Illinois ARG Jan. 31 40% 51% 48% 34% 3% 3%
Massachusetts Rasmussen Jan. 28 23% 55% 8% 4%
Missouri SurveyUSA Jan. 31 48% 44% 34% 30% 28% 5%
New Jersey SurveyUSA Jan. 31 51% 39% 48% 25% 9% 7%
New York SurveyUSA Jan. 31 54% 38% 55% 21% 7% 4%

Here is what the Feb. 5 races look like. The most recent (January) poll is always included. If other polls were taken within a week of it, all of them are averaged, weighted equally. A "+" in the pollster column indicates multiple polls were used.

Democrats

State Clinton Obama Date Pollster
Alabama 43 42 Jan 31 Insid+Surve+Capit
Arizona 41 26 Jan 24 Rocky+Arizo
California 47 36 Jan 29 Four polls
Colorado 32 34 Jan 23 Mason-Dixon
Connecticut 44 41 Jan 31 ARG-1+Surve+Rasmu
Georgia 36 52 Jan 30 Insider Advantage
Illinois 32 56 Jan 31 ARG-1+Rasmu
Massachusetts 50 35 Jan 30 Surve+Rasmu
Minnesota 40 33 Jan 27 U. of Minnesota
Missouri 48 44 Jan 31 SurveyUSA
New Jersey 50 38 Jan 31 Surve+Rasmu
New York 55 33 Jan 31 Surve+Gallu
Oklahoma 44 19 Jan 27 SurveyUSA
Tennessee 59 26 Jan 30 Insider Advantage


Republicans

State McCain Romney Date Pollster
Alabama 37 18 Jan 31 Four polls
Arizona 41 21 Jan 24 Rocky+Arizo
California 34 25 Jan 29 Five polls
Colorado 24 43 Jan 23 Mason-Dixon
Connecticut 46 27 Jan 31 ARG-1+Surve+Rasmu
Georgia 35 34 Jan 30 Insider Advantage
Illinois 41 30 Jan 31 ARG-1+Rasmu
Massachusetts 29 56 Jan 30 Surve+Rasmu
Minnesota 41 17 Jan 27 U. of Minnesota
Missouri 34 30 Jan 31 SurveyUSA
New Jersey 46 27 Jan 31 Surve+Rasmu
New York 49 18 Jan 31 Surve+Gallu
Oklahoma 37 19 Jan 27 SurveyUSA
Tennessee 33 18 Jan 30 Insider Advantage

Here is a run down of the megabuckage as of the end of 2007. The last column is the net amount as of Dec. 31 (cash on hand minus outstanding debts). Clinton and Obama are running about even in fundraising, but he is spending it faster than she. Each one has raised twice as much as anyone else (Romney's total is hugely inflated because he loaned his campaign $35 million of his own money, something it is not likely to pay back). Ron Paul is the most frugal candidate: he has no debts. In case you are REALLY into this kind of stuff, Mike Gravel outraised Alan Keyes by more than 50%, $380,000 to $290,000. If you have a child or grandchild who asks you "Can I be President when I grow up?" The answer is: "Yes, but first you have to raise $100 million just to get through the year before the election." For the full story, see Open Secrets.

Candidates Raised Spent Cash Net
Hillary Clinton $116 $77 $38 $33
Barack Obama $102 $83 $19 $19
Ron Paul $28 $20 $8 $8
Mike Huckabee $9 $7 $2 $2
John McCain $41 $38 $3 $-2
Mitt Romney $88 $86 $2 $-33
(All amounts in millions of dollars.)

While Clinton and Obama had plenty of money in the bank at the end of last year, their burn rates have been horrific. Obama raised another $32 million in January. Clinton has not announced her January haul yet.

Many prominent conservatives, including Ann Coulter, James Dobson, Rush Limbaugh, and Pat Toomey, have a visceral hatred of John McCain, which is going to be a big problem if he is the nominee (see also here and here). All of them hate Hillary Clinton, too, and probably could learn to hate Barack Obama if he is their opponent. One of the arguments that Republicans have been making about why they will win this year is how Hillary Clinton will unite their party like never before. Unless John McCain divides it like never before. Which hate is stronger? In any event, there is likely to be a lot of hate this year.

The U.S. economy lost 17,000 jobs in January. While the formal definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP, something economists understand, for most people, having to worry about losing your job is a better indicator and tends to push people towards the Democrats. A recession in an election year will focus everyone's attention on which party can be better trusted to fix the economy. John McCain has (perhaps foolishly) said he doesn't know much about the economy. He may come to regret that. His great strength is national security and to the extent that gets put on the back burner while people are worrying about their jobs, it hurts him. If there is another terrorist attack, people will look to him for strength.

The polling results for all states are available as a Web page and in .csv format.

CNN is keeping track of the delegates for the Democrats and for the Republicans. Note that other sources may differ because CNN is trying to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) and other unpledged delegates. When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary, but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently. Here is CNN's count:

Delegates

Clinton 230 Obama 152     Needed: 2025
McCain 97 Romney 74 Huckabee 29 Paul 6 Needed: 1191


-- The Votemaster
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