overseas voter, absentee ballot

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 243   Bush 254

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Battleground states
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electoral college strong kerry Strong Kerry (92)
electoral college weak kerry Weak Kerry (119)
electoral college barely kerry Barely Kerry (32)
electoral college tied Exactly tied (41)
electoral college barely bush Barely Bush (40)
electoral college weak bush Weak Bush (51)
electoral college strong bush Strong Bush (163)
Needed to win: 270
Sept. 9 New polls: AZ MO OH OR PA WA RSS

News from the Votemaster

Those polls just keep coming. After 16 yesterday, we have six more today. The most astonishing one is in Missouri, where Gallup reports an incredible 14% lead for Bush, 55% to 41%. Zogby had them tied yesterday. A 14% lead the day after a tie seems very strange indeed. Take a look at the Missouri graph and see whether you believe this result. Personally, I don't, but since it came from a reputable pollster, it goes into the spreadsheet and map. In other polls, Bush has taken a 1% lead in Pennsylvania. That is entirely plausible as Pennsylvania has been zigging and zagging quite a bit recently. Gallup also reports that Bush is ahead by 8% in Ohio, also consistent with earlier polls. Arizona and Washington are also consistent with earlier polls. In Oregon, Kerry has slipped by a little bit and it 1% behind in a Riley poll. Since this poll was concurrent with yesterday's the Zogby poll, the two will be averaged, so Kerry maintains a small lead here.

Now some voting machine news. The state of California has decided to sue Diebold, the nation's largest manufacturer of electronic (touch screen) voting machines because the company lied about the machines' security. The machines have a special feature that creates fake vote totals when a secret 2-digit code is typed in. The LA Times article about the lawsuit does not specify whether there are separate codes to fake a Bush victory and fake a Kerry victory or whether one candidate's victory has been programmed in advance or whether election officials can enter any result they want. However, Diebold's CEO, Walden O'Dell, has said he was "committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes for the president." The suit comes 6 months after the machines failed in the March primary. The machines are used in 19 California counties and many states nationwide.

A second pollster, John Zogby, has publicly criticized the Time and Newsweek polls showing Bush ahead by 11%. Like Scott Rasmussen, he pointed out that the sample contained a far greater percentage of Republicans than there really are.

One of the Republican electors in West Virginia has threatened to to cast his vote in the electoral college against George Bush even if Bush carries West Virginia. In a close election, one electoral vote could matter. In 2000, the final score was Bush 271, Gore 266, because one of Gore's electors, Barbara Lett-Simmons, cast a blank ballot.

Thanks to your generous donations, I have run ads on a number of blogs to attract more readers. Here is a list of where the donations have been spent and how effective they were. Readership is up from 120,000 per day when the last batch of ads began to 190,000 yesterday. If you have not made a donation to increase this site's visibility and would like to, it can be done via PayPal. Please click here for more information. A PayPal account is not required. Thanks for your support.

As mentioned Tuesday we are now tracking all 34 Senate races. The Senate totals will be posted daily at the bottom of the page.

Projected Senate: 48 Democrats, 51 Republicans, 1 independent
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-- The votemaster

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overseas voter, absentee ballot