The seven greatest senators, as named in a Senate resolution, Oct. 19, 2000

John
Calhoun
(D-SC)

Henry
Clay
(Whig-KY)

Robert
LaFollette
(R-WI)

Robert
Taft
(R-OH)

Arthur
Vandenberg
(R-MI)

Robert
Wagner
(D-NY)

Daniel
Webster
(Whig-MA)

Senate Races

This page discusses the battle for control of the United States Senate, the candidates, and the latest polls. Spreadsheets containing just the candidates and polling numbers are available in Excel forrmat and in .csv format.

Currently 51 senators are Republicans, 48 are Democrats, and one (Sen. Jeffords of Vermont) is an independent who caucuses with the Democrats, making it effectively 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats. If the Democrats pick up one seat, the Senate will be effectively tied when Congress convenes on Jan. 4, 2005. Under those circumstances, when the votes are taken for organizing the Senate, Dick Cheney will cast the deciding vote and the Republicans will take control.

However, if the new Senate is 50-50 and Kerry is elected president, he will (presumably?) have to resign his Senate seat before noon on Jan. 20, in which case the Republicans will temporarily have a 50 to 49 majority. Under a brand-new law that the Democrats in the Massachusetts state legislature rammed through over the Republican governor's veto, Kerry's successor will be chosen in a special election in the Spring of 2005. That election will then determine control of the Senate. Of course if Bush wins, the Democrats need a net gain of two seats to get control.

In this year's election, 19 seats currently held by Democrats and 15 seats currently held by Republicans are up for grabs. Not only do the Democrats have to defend more seats, but five popular Southern Democratic senators are retiring. The Democrats face an uphill fight in all these states, which are Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, and South Carolina. In contrast, only three Republicans are retiring, in Colorado, Illinois, and Oklahoma. If all the incumbents who are running win reelection, the new Senate will have 48 Republicans and 44 Democrats plus whoever wins the eight open seats. To gain an absolute majority of 51 seats, the Democrats have to either win seven of the eight open seats, or pick off a few incumbent Republicans, while not losing any of their own incumbents.

The table below points out some of the more interesting races. Incumbents are marked with asterisks. More information about the Senate races is given in Senate-1, Senate-2. Senate-3, Senate-4, Senate-5, and Senate-6. You might also want to look at the official propaganda from the Democratic senatorial committee and the Republican senatorial committee.

Information on House races is much harder to come by. www.pollingreport.com has good coverage, including polls, but only for paid subscribers. The best freebie is Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball.

Competitive Senate Races

State	Dem.	GOP	Poll	Notes
Alaska	Tony Knowles (47%)	Lisa Murkowski* (43%)	Global Strat. Group (D)-3 Oct 19	When Sen. Frank Murkowski was elected governor in the middle of his Senate term, he searched far and wide over this vast state to find the best possible successor. Turns out it was his daughter, Lisa. Not everyone in normally Republican Alaska was thrilled by this, and when former governor Tony Knowles got the Democratic nomination, it became a real horse race.
Colorado	Ken Salazar (51%)	Pete Coors (47%)	Survey USA-3 Nov 1	Republican Ben Nighthorse Campbell could have easily won a third term but decided to retire from the Senate. After a bruising primary battle, beer heir Pete Coors won the Republican nomination over right-wing former Congressman, Bob Schaffer. Colorado attorney general Ken Salazar won an easy primary victory over a left-wing teacher, Mike Miles. With each party fielding a moderate nominee, it could go either way, although with 17% of the electorate being Latino, Salazar's Latino heritage may help. On the other hand, many Coloradans like beer. Colorado is one of the best chances the Democrats have to pick up one of the one or two seats they need to recapture the Senate. And everybody knows it. All the big guns will show up to help.
Florida	Betty Castor (48%)	Mel Martinez (48%)	Survey USA-3 Oct 31	Democratic senator Bob Graham could have easily made an entry in one of those little notebooks he carries around all day: "Tuesday, 1:42 p.m.: Decided to get re-elected to Senate." But he didn't. So we have a contested open seat between State Education Commissioner Betty Castor (D) and former HUD Secretary Mel Martinez (R).
Georgia	Denise Majette (40%)	Johnny Isakson (56%)	Survey USA-3 Oct 30	Democratic senator Zell Miller decided to give up a safe seat and in return the Republicans decided to let him nominate George Bush at the RNC. Miller had previously said he should have switched to the Republican party long ago since he usually votes with them, but he was too old. It looks like the GOP is going to get an official seat to replace the de facto one it had.
Illinois	Barack Obama (66%)	Alan Keyes (27%)	Survey USA-3 Oct 29	With the retirement of Republican Sen. Peter Fitzgerald, JFK-clone Jack Ryan, ex-husband of alien hottie Jeri Ryan, should have had a good shot against a "skinny black kid with a funny name." When the press discovered from the divorce records that Jack kept bugging her to do in public what Bill Clinton caught hell for doing in private, the Republicans dumped Ryan. After a desperate search, the best they could find was a former right-wing radio host who lives in Maryland and has lost badly the four times he has run for public office. He's never even lived in Illinois. At least Hillary Clinton had the decency to buy a house in New York before becoming a carpetbagger. Then the skinny black kid became the star of the DNC. It's all over in Illinois and the fat lady hasn't even put on her costume yet. The Dems pick up a GOP seat here and some of them are dreaming of Edwards/Obama '12.
Kentucky	Daniel Mongiardo (42%)	Jim Bunning* (51%)	Survey USA-3 Oct 30	Bunning should have won handily, but his behavior has been increasingly bizarre of late. He said that his opponent looked like one of Saddam's sons. Then he broke the agreement to debate Mongiardo in Kentucky and did it from the RNC headquarters in Washington by satellite. It later came out that he was reading from a TelePrompTer, which led to instant speculation that he was having serious mental problems. Two weeks before the election, it became a tossup.
Louisiana	Chris John (21) or John Kennedy (15)	David Vitter (49%)	Market Research-3 Oct 28	Veteran Democratic senator John Breaux, a powerhouse behind the scenes, decided to retire. Although Louisiana is in the deep South, it is not a Republican stronghold. Currently both senators and the governor are Democrats. Also in the past 7 presidential elections, the Republicans have won four times and the Democrats have won three times. The race is complicated by Louisiana's quaint view that politics should be kept out of politics, so the Senate election is nonpartisan. Rep. Chris John, Rep. David Vitter, state treasurer John Kennedy, and some minor candidates are all running without party affiliation in the Nov. 2 election. If no candidate gets 50%, there will be a runoff election a few weeks later. Insiders think it will be Chris John vs. David Vitter in a runoff. Runoffs are generally on a Saturday, giving more working class people a chance to vote. Once the race coalesces to one Democrat vs. one Republican, the Democrats have a good chance to hold the seat.
North Carolina	Erskine Bowles (50%)	Richard Burr (45%)	Survey USA-3 Oct 31	Erskine Bowles ran against Liddy Dole in 2002 and lost, but he is back again running for the seat Democrat John Edwards is retiring from. The seat is cursed however. Since the legendary Sam Ervin retired in 1974, no occupant has been elected to a second term. The Democrats have a good chance of holding the seat, at least until the curse kicks in in 2010.
Oklahoma	Brad Carson (39%)	Tom Coburn (47%)	Survey USA-3 Oct 30	Republican Don Nickles retired from his safe seat. Democratic Congressman Brad Carson is facing former Republican Congressman Tom Coburn who won a bitter primary fight full of nasty allegations about questionable land deals. This is a heavily Republican state, but Coburn has a track record of saying reckless things he later tries to unsay. It could go either way.
South Carolina	Inez Tenenbaum (41%)	Jim DeMint (41%)	Survey USA-3 Oct 31	With Democrat Fritz Hollings retiring, the Republicans have their best chance to pick up a Democratic seat in this conservative state. Congressman Jim DeMint is favored to beat school superintendent Inez Tenenbaum.
South Dakota	Tom Daschle* (46%)	John Thune (49%)	Zogby-2 Oct 26	In the clubby Senate, having one party go after the jugular of the other party's leader was Not Done. Until this year. The Republicans have launched an all out effort to defeat Minority Leader Tom Daschle in this heavily Republican state. However it is worth noting that South Dakotans just elected an inexperienced young Democratic woman, Stephanie Herseth, to Congress in a special election on June 1. It could go either way.

Senate Races Where the Incumbent Is Expected to Win Easily

State	Dem.	GOP	Poll	Notes
Alabama	Wayne Sowell (37%)	Richard Shelby* (63%)	1998 election 1998	Shelby will win easily.
Arizona	Stuart Starky (28%)	John McCain* (69%)	1998 election 1998	McCain is immensely popular, even with Democrats. He is unbeatable.
Arkansas	Blanche Lincoln* (57%)	Jim Holt (38%)	Survey USA-3 Oct 26	Arkansas is also the Land of Lincoln. She'll win in a walk.
California	Barbara Boxer* (57%)	Bill Jones (36%)	Survey USA-3 Oct 31	Schwarzenegger will do his best, but when Boxer meets weightlifter, Boxer wins.
Connecticut	Chris Dodd* (69%)	Jack Orchulli (24%)	Quinnipiac-3 Oct 28	An easy win for Dodd.
Hawaii	Daniel Inouye* (80%)	Cam Cavasso (18%)	1998 election 1998	Cam Cavasso is opposing Inouye on a platform of supporting the antigay marriage constitutional amendment. He has zero chance of winning.
Idaho	(Unopposed)	Michael Crapo*		Crapo is so safe, the Democrats didn't even bother to field a candidate.
Iowa	Art Small (22%)	Chuck Grassley* (68%)	Zogby-4 Oct 31	Grassley should win easily.
Indiana	Evan Bayh* (61%)	Marvin Scott (34%)	Survey USA-3 Oct 29	Despite Indiana's strong tilt to Bush, Bayh is safe.
Kansas	Lee Jones (26%)	Sam Brownback* (59%)	Market Research-5 Oct 26	Brownback is safe
Maryland	Barbara Mikulski* (66%)	Edward Pipkin (29%)	Baltimore Sun-2 Oct 26	Mikulski will crush Pipkin.
Missouri	Nancy Farmer (38%)	Kit Bond* (57%)	Survey USA-3 Oct 31	Three-term senator Christopher (Kit) Bond is the favorite, but if Kerry has long coattails, state treasurer Nancy Farmer has a chance because Bond has never gotten more than 53% in a Senate race.
Nevada	Harry Reid* (58%)	Richard Ziser (34%)	Zogby-4 Oct 31	Incumbent Harry Reid, the Democratic whip, won his race in 1998, by 428 votes, less than Bush's margin in Florida. By all rights he should be vulnerable, but the Republicans failed to field a strong candidate, so Reid will probably get re-elected.
New Hampshire	Doris Haddock (23%)	Judd Gregg* (63%)	Univ. of New Hampshire-3 Oct 30	Gregg will have Haddock for dinner.
New York	Charles Schumer* (72%)	Howard Mills (16%)	Narist Coll.-2 Oct 26	A cakewalk for Schumer.
North Dakota	Byron Dorgan* (71%)	Mike Liffrig (20%)	Minnesota State Univ.-2 Oct 19	Considering how Republican North Dakota is, Dorgan is fairly safe.
Ohio	Eric Fingerhut (33%)	George Voinovich* (57%)	Zogby-4 Oct 31	For the presidency it is neck and neck in Ohio, but for the Senate, Voinovich will win easily.
Oregon	Ron Wyden* (59%)	Al King (36%)	1998 election 1998	Wyden will win easily.
Pennsylvania	Joe Hoeffel (33%)	Arlen Specter* (53%)	Survey USA-3 Oct 31	In theory, a four-term moderate Republican with the full support of the President should have crushed his right-wing opponent, Pat Toomey in the primary, but Specter barely squeaked by. If Kerry wins Pennsylvania by a large enough margin, he may pull in Hoeffel on his coattails. But without Kerry's help, Spector gets re-elected.
Utah	Paul Van Dam (22%)	Robert Bennett* (65%)	Dan Jones-8 Oct 28	In this most Republican of states, Bennett will win in a landslide.
Vermont	Patrick Leahy* (67%)	Jack McMullen (21%)	Research 2000-2 Oct 12	Dick Cheney told Leahy to "Go f**k yourself" on the floor of the Senate, but the voters of Vermont love him.
Washington	Patty Murray* (51%)	George Nethercutt (45%)	Survey USA-3 Oct 31	Murray is popular and should win easily.
Wisconsin	Russ Feingold* (59%)	Tim Michels (36%)	Zogby-4 Oct 31	Feingold barely squeaked by last time, but he is a maverick and that is appreciated in Wisconsin.

So what's the bottom line? Probably the Democrats will pick up Illinois but lose Georgia and South Carolina. Assuming they hold South Dakota and Nevada and the Republicans hold Missouri and Pennsylvania, the Senate will be 45 Democrats (including Jeffords) and 49 Republicans, with tossups in Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, and Oklahoma. To take unambiguous control of the Senate, the Democrats have to win them all. If they win five of the six and Kerry wins and the Democrats win the special election in Massachusetts, they also take control of the Senate and John Edwards gets a real job--breaking ties in the Senate. A tall order, but not impossible. The Republicans have it much easier. They merely have to win two of the six, and many of the races are in the Republican-friendly South.

If you live in a state that is dark red or dark blue and feel disenfranchised, take a second look. There might be an interesting Senate (or House) race near you. Call the campaign of your choice and get involved.

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