Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 290   Bush 237

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dark blue Strong Kerry (189)
light blue Weak Kerry (33)
white and blue Barely Kerry (68)
white Exactly tied (11)
white and red Barely Bush (53)
light red Weak Bush (59)
dark red Strong Bush (125)
July 26 New polls: FL MO OH

News from the Votemaster

Good news for George Bush in the two most important states. A new Gallup poll puts him ahead 50% to 46% in Florida, with Nader at 1%. A new Columbus Dispatch poll puts him ahead in Ohio as well, by 44% to 47%, with Nader at 2%. Finally, a Gallup poll in Missouri has Bush and Kerry tied, but a Survey USA poll we already reported for the same time period as the Gallup poll has Kerry ahead by 2%, so we have averaged the two.

Despite being ahead in Florida and Ohio, Bush is still behind in the electoral college, largely due to the Midwest. Today's survey can be regarded as the benchmark against which the convention bounce can be measured.

The final converted versions of the spreadsheets are still not available. Probably tomorrow.

The AP ran a story Sunday saying that Bush is ahead in the electoral college. They claim that they following states are tossups: New Mexico, Wisconsin, West Virginia. In a generic sense they are, but the most recent polls in these states are as follows:

State Kerry Bush Poll
New Mexico 49 42 Zogby (July 10)
Wisconsin 48 42 American Research Group (July 15)
West Virginia 43 51 Zogby (July 15)

These leads are well outside the MoE. For the moment, Kerry is ahead in New Mexico and Wisconsin and Bush is ahead in West Virginia.

The story also says Arizona and Missouri are leaning towards Bush. Not according to the data. Here it is

State Kerry Bush Poll
Arizona 42 41 Arizona State Univ. (July 18)
Missouri 48 45 Research 2000 (July 22)
Missouri 47 47 Gallup (July 22)

The data say these states are statistical ties. They are not leaning towards Bush at the moment.

It is certainly true that about 20 states are going to be very close, but there is no basis for saying that Bush is ahead in the electoral college now. A more accurate statement would be Kerry has 222 electoral votes strongly for him or leaning in his direction and Bush has 184 strong or leaning. The rest are tossups. Thus Kerry is ahead in the electoral college right now. But don't bet on it. AP should assign a more experienced political reporter to this kind of story next time.

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-- The votemaster Electoral college

Electoral college