Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 310   Bush 217

Data in Excel format Battleground states Info about the states Previous report Next report News   Strong Kerry (189) Weak Kerry (33) Barely Kerry (88) Exactly tied (11) Barely Bush (33) Weak Bush (59) Strong Bush (125)

News from the Votemaster

Not much news today. New polls in Florida and Missouri confirm the previous polls: Bush has a tiny lead in Florida and Kerry has a tiny lead in Missouri.

However, lots of changes to the site today. I asked Eric Paulson if he could modify the tool tips on the map to show the 2000 elections results, and he kindly agreed.

Yesterday I asked if someone could convert the old spreadsheets to the new format and seven people did it immediately. These are: Pasadena Brad, Eugene Bryton, R.D. Flowers, Steve Hendrix, R.J. Parsons, Andrew Ross, and Cliff Winterfield. Thanks to all of you. Consequently, all the maps and spreadsheets are now in the new format. A single zip file with all the new spreadsheets in both .xls and .csv format is here.

Every site worth its salt has a FAQ. Starting today, this one, too. Most of the initial questions deal with polling.

A new cartoon of the week has been installed today. A VERY funny parody of Woody Guthrie's "This Land is Your Land" is at jibjab.com. It pokes fun at both Bush and Kerry. Don't miss.

The AP ran a story Sunday saying that Bush is ahead in the electoral college. They claim that they following states are tossups: New Mexico, Wisconsin, West Virginia. In a generic sense they are, but the most recent polls in these states are as follows:

These leads are well outside the MoE. For the moment, Kerry is ahead in New Mexico and Wisconsin and Bush is ahead in West Virginia.

The story also says Arizona and Missouri are leaning towards Bush. Not according to the data. Here it is

The data say these states are statistical ties. They are not leaning towards Bush at the moment. In fact, to the extent they are leaning at all, it is towards Kerry.

It is certainly true that about 20 states are going to be very close, but there is no basis for saying that Bush is ahead in the electoral college now. A more accurate statement would be Kerry has 222 electoral votes strongly for him or leaning iin his direction and Bush has 184 strong or leaning. The rest are tossups. There is no basis in current data to suggest Bush is ahead. Perhaps AP should assign a more experienced political reporter to this kind of story next time.

-- The votemaster Electoral college