Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 332   Bush 195

Data in Excel format Battleground states Info about the states Previous report Next report   Strong Kerry (120) Weak Kerry (106) Barely Kerry (106) Exactly tied (11) Barely Bush (11) Weak Bush (59) Strong Bush (125)

News from the Votemaster

Only one poll today but it is a biggie. KAET-TV commissioned the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at Arizona State University to conduct a presidential preference poll in Arizona. The poll, taken July 15-18, gives Kerry the lead by 42% to 41%. While this is a statistical tie, it is a marked change from previous polls which showed Bush with a solid lead in Arizona. If subsequent polls confirm this result, Arizona will become another battleground state. Due to its many retirees, Arizona may become a state where Medicare and domestic issues overshadow foreign policy issues.

Despite an endless stream of national polls showing the race to be a statistical tie, veteran readers of this site know that Kerry's lead, currently 137 EVs, has never been so large. Considering the fact that the Washington Post reported today that the Democrats have raised more money than the Republicans this year, Karl Rove has his work cut out for him. But don't forget, November is a long way away and a lot can change between now and then. Kerry supporters should not celebrate yet and Bush supporters should not despair.

-- The votemaster Electoral college