State-by-State Margins July 21
The numbers in the table below give the margins between the candidates. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the margin will be shown as 3%. The margin of error in most polls is about 3%, so when the margin is 3% or less, the race is essentially a tie.
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Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C.* 80% Massachusetts 29% Rhode Island 22% New York 22% Hawaii* 19% Connecticut 18% Illinois 16% Vermont 15% Maryland 14% Delaware* 13% Oregon 10% New Jersey 10% |
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Washington 9% New Hampshire 9% California 8% Pennsylvania 7% New Mexico 7% Wisconsin 6% |
Barely Kerry (<5%)
Iowa 4% Missouri 3% Florida 3% Minnesota 2% Michigan 2% Ohio 1% Maine 1% Arizona 1% |
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Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 45% Wyoming* 40% Mississippi 31% Idaho 30% Nebraska* 29% North Dakota* 28% Oklahoma 24% Alaska 23% Montana 20% Kansas 20% Indiana 19% Texas 18% South Dakota 16% Alabama 14% Kentucky 13% Georgia 11% |
Weak Bush (5-9%)
West Virginia 8% South Carolina 7% Louisiana 6% Virginia 5% North Carolina 5% Colorado 5% |
Barely Bush (<5%)
Nevada 2% Arkansas 2% |
* No state polls have been conducted in DC, DE, HI, ND, NE, and WY, so the 2000 results are used. DC, DE, and HI are solid Democratic; the rest are solid Republican.
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