Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 292   Bush 246

Data in Excel format Battleground states Info about the states Previous report Next report   Strong Kerry (168) Weak Kerry (98) Barely Kerry (26) Exactly tied (0) Barely Bush (41) Weak Bush (51) Strong Bush (154)

News from the Votemaster

Rasmussen released two new tracking polls today, one for Michigan and one for Virginia. These polls covered the 7 days ending June 30. Since we have newer polls for both states, in accordance with our policy of using only the most recent polls, these polls have not be used. Nevertheless, just for the record, here is how they stack up against the current polls

Michigan
      Our polls:     Kerry 49, Bush 44
      Rasmussen: Kerry 46, Bush 44

Virginia
      Our polls:     Kerry 43, Bush 49
      Rasmussen: Kerry 45, Bush 48

The conclusion is that Kerry is slightly ahead in Michigan and Bush is slightly ahead in Virginia. With the addition of a southerner to the Democratic ticket, Virginia may become a battleground state, along with Florida, and maybe Louisiana (whose governor and senators are all Democrats). Even Arkansas may be up for grabs. Kerry is currently actually leading there and both senators are Democrats although the governor is a Republican.

A new cartoon of the week has been posted.

-- The votemaster