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Projected New Senate:     48 Democrats     51 Republicans     1 tie

Polling data in Excel
Battleground states
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strong Dem Strong Dem (46)
weak Dem Weak Dem (1)
barely Dem Barely Dem (1)
tied Exactly tied (1)
barely GOP Barely GOP (3)
weak GOP Weak GOP (2)
strong GOP Strong GOP (46)
No Senate race No Senate race
  Map algorithm explained
Oct. 29 New polls: FL MD NJ RSS
  Pickups: Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

News from the Votemaster

Poll of the Day

This question is about your "normal" political identification, rather than who you will vote for Nov. 7. I know there are many Republicans who will vote Democratic this time because they feel the administration has abandoned so many core Republican principles like balanced budgets and keeping government out of people's private lives. Such people should still vote "Republican" in today's poll. Needless to say, while this poll is very precise (large sample, margin of error less than 1%), it is not at all accurate, since it only samples readers of this site, which is hardly a random sample of the population. If nothing else, these daily polls hammer home the difference between precision and accuracy. The former has to do with error introduced by the small sample; the latter has to do with whether the poll actually measures the underlying attitude the poll is trying to get at in the entire target population.

What is your political identification?
Democrat Republican Independent Libertarian Green Other   

Senate Polls

The NRSC is spending $5 million on the New Jersey Senate race and it is beginning to have an effect. A new Rasmussen poll shows state senator Tom Kean, Jr. (R) leading incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) 43% to 41%. If Kean can pull this off, he may well be the only Republican to unseat a sitting Democratic member of Congress. But this race is far from over. It is probably going to be very close. What is surprising, though, is how badly Menendez is doing in such a blue state as New Jersey. The map shows New Jersey as a tie because that is the average of all (five) polls in the past week.

Despite some recent noise about the Maryland Senate race being close, a new Washington Post poll puts Rep. Ben Cardin (D) solidly ahead of Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R), 54% to 43%.

State Democrat Republican Date     Len Dem GOP Ind Pollster
Florida Bill Nelson* Katherine Harris Oct 25 4 56% 30%   St Petersburg Times
Maryland Ben Cardin Michael Steele Oct 26 5 54% 43%   Washington Post
New Jersey Bob Menendez* Tom Kean, Jr. Oct 26 1 41% 43%   Rasmussen

House Polls

No new House polls today.


The Washington Post has a fascinating story on two of most powerful men in politics--John Lapp (35) and Carl Forti (34). They are the guys who get to spend the massive DCCC and NRCC ad budgets. The factors they consider are not always obvious to outsiders. For example, Lapp is spending heavily to attack Rep. Cathy McMorris (R-WA) in WA-05, a safe Republican district, but not spending to attack Jean Schmidt (R-OH) in OH-02 , who is in a very close race. Why? Because a week of TV time is cheap in Spokane but expensive in Cincinnati.

As usual on Sundays, there is a new cartoon on the political humor page.

Projected New House*:     226 Democrats     207 Republicans     2 Ties
* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

Dem pickups: AZ-08 FL-13 FL-16 IA-02 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KY-03 NC-08 NC-11 NH-02 NM-01 NY-19 NY-24 NY-25 NY-29 OH-15 OH-18 PA-06 PA-07 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08

GOP pickups:
Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.
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