Projected New Senate: 49 Democrats 51 Republicans
News from the Votemaster
Poll of the Day
Although we have seven Senate polls today, none of them are really surprising. All confirm well-known results that the Democratic candidates are very likely to win in Montana, Ohio, Minnesota, and Rhode Island, and the Republican candidates are certain to win in Maine and Texas.
Over in the House we have the first polls in Maine. In ME-01, incumbent Tom Allen (D) is leading challenger Darlene Curley (R) 62% to 18%. In ME-02, incumbent Michael Michaud (D) is leading challenger Laurence D'Amboise (R) 62% to 25%. Maine shows the power of incumbency very starkly. When the incumbent is a Republican, as in the case of Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), she is trouncing her Democratic rival Jean Hay-Bright by 60 percentage points. But in the House races, the incumbent Democrats are going to win landslide victories over Republicans.
The other House polls confirm earlier results.
Widely respected political analyst Charlie Cook has compared the polling data in 2006 with comparable data from 1994 and sees black clouds for the Republicans. Just as then, the incumbent party is seen as arrogant, corrupt, and out of touch with the people. On four out of the five key diagnostic indicators, the Democrats are now in better shape than the Republicans were a week before the 1994 elections. However, Congress is even more gerrymandered now than it was then, so the Democratic victory in the House is not not likely to be as large as it was then. Cook foresees a Democratic gain of 20-35 seats in the House and 5-6 in the Senate.
Another analyst, Stu Rothenberg, predicts a Democratic gain of 18-28 seats in the House and 4-7 seats in the Senate.
For those readers fond of mud wrestling, the Virginia Senate race is a golden opportunity. Democratic candidate Jim Webb has written some novels and Sen. George Allen (R) is making a big deal about some steamy passages in them. He should be careful though. Republicans write books too. As Political Wire notes, Second Lady Lynne Cheney wrote a book about lesbians, brothels, and attempted rape, not to mention one in which a Republican Vice President dies of a heart attack while having sex with his mistress.
Projected New House*: 226 Democrats 207 Republicans 2 Ties* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.
Dem pickups: AZ-08 FL-13 FL-16 IA-02 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KY-03 NC-08 NC-11 NH-02 NM-01 NY-19 NY-24 NY-25 NY-29 OH-15 OH-18 PA-06 PA-07 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08
See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.
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-- The Votemaster