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Projected New Senate:     49 Democrats     51 Republicans    

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strong Dem Strong Dem (45)
weak Dem Weak Dem (2)
barely Dem Barely Dem (2)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (3)
weak GOP Weak GOP (2)
strong GOP Strong GOP (46)
No Senate race No Senate race
  Map algorithm explained
Oct. 28 New polls: MA ME MN MT OH RI TX RSS
  Pickups: Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

News from the Votemaster

Poll of the Day

Which party do you want to control Congress?
Democrats Republicans Divided Congress   

Senate Polls

Although we have seven Senate polls today, none of them are really surprising. All confirm well-known results that the Democratic candidates are very likely to win in Montana, Ohio, Minnesota, and Rhode Island, and the Republican candidates are certain to win in Maine and Texas.

State Democrat Republican Date     Len Dem GOP Ind Pollster
Maine Jean Bright Olympia Snowe* Oct 23 8 14% 74%   Critical Insights
Mass. Ted Kennedy* Ken Chase Oct 25 4 60% 25%   U. of New Hampshire
Minnesota Amy Klobuchar Mark Kennedy Oct 25 1 53% 39%   Rasmussen
Montana Jon Tester Conrad Burns* Oct 26 1 51% 47%   Rasmussen
Ohio Sherrod Brown Mike DeWine* Oct 24 1 53% 41%   Rasmussen
Rhode Island Sheldon Whitehouse Lincoln Chafee* Oct 25 3 43% 33%   Rhode Island Coll.
Texas Barbara Radnofsky Kay Hutchison* Oct 23 1 34% 60%   Rasmussen

House Polls

Over in the House we have the first polls in Maine. In ME-01, incumbent Tom Allen (D) is leading challenger Darlene Curley (R) 62% to 18%. In ME-02, incumbent Michael Michaud (D) is leading challenger Laurence D'Amboise (R) 62% to 25%. Maine shows the power of incumbency very starkly. When the incumbent is a Republican, as in the case of Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), she is trouncing her Democratic rival Jean Hay-Bright by 60 percentage points. But in the House races, the incumbent Democrats are going to win landslide victories over Republicans.

The other House polls confirm earlier results.

Cong. Distr. Democrat Republican Date     Len Dem GOP Ind Pollster
AZ-08 Gabrielle Giffords Randy Graf Oct 23 4 48% 38%   Zimmerman
ME-01 Tom Allen* Darlene Curley Oct 23 8 62% 18%   Critical Insights
ME-02 Michael Michaud* Laurence D'Amboise Oct 23 8 62% 25%   Critical Insights
PA-08 Patrick Murphy Mike Fitzpatrick* Oct 23 5 39% 48%   Keystone Poll
SC-05 John Spratt* Ralph Norman Oct 25 9 61% 28%   Clemson U.
VT-AL Peter Welch Martha Rainville Oct 24 2 51% 41%   Research 2000


Widely respected political analyst Charlie Cook has compared the polling data in 2006 with comparable data from 1994 and sees black clouds for the Republicans. Just as then, the incumbent party is seen as arrogant, corrupt, and out of touch with the people. On four out of the five key diagnostic indicators, the Democrats are now in better shape than the Republicans were a week before the 1994 elections. However, Congress is even more gerrymandered now than it was then, so the Democratic victory in the House is not not likely to be as large as it was then. Cook foresees a Democratic gain of 20-35 seats in the House and 5-6 in the Senate.

Another analyst, Stu Rothenberg, predicts a Democratic gain of 18-28 seats in the House and 4-7 seats in the Senate.

For those readers fond of mud wrestling, the Virginia Senate race is a golden opportunity. Democratic candidate Jim Webb has written some novels and Sen. George Allen (R) is making a big deal about some steamy passages in them. He should be careful though. Republicans write books too. As Political Wire notes, Second Lady Lynne Cheney wrote a book about lesbians, brothels, and attempted rape, not to mention one in which a Republican Vice President dies of a heart attack while having sex with his mistress.

Projected New House*:     226 Democrats     207 Republicans     2 Ties
* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

Dem pickups: AZ-08 FL-13 FL-16 IA-02 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KY-03 NC-08 NC-11 NH-02 NM-01 NY-19 NY-24 NY-25 NY-29 OH-15 OH-18 PA-06 PA-07 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08

GOP pickups:
Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.
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