Electoral Vote Predictor

Nov 29, Projected U.S. Senate: 51 Democrats 49 Republicans

Wed, 29 Nov 2006 06:00:00 EDT

Campaign 2008 is already in full swing. I'm am not going to start logging polls yet since they are totally meaningless at this point in the cycle. Nevertheless some of the candidates have recently discovered how much they have always loved winter in New Hampshire. Let's take a look.

Below we look at some potential candidates, some of whom are (semi-)announced and some of whom are playing hard to get.

When looking at 2008 presidential candidates, always keep two things in mind. First, every morning 100 U.S. senators look in the bathroom mirror and see a future president. Many run, but only two sitting senators have ever been elected president: Warren Harding (R-OH) in 1920 and Jack Kennedy (D-MA) in 1960. The reason is clear: senators have to vote thousands of times and opponents can always dredge up some vote to batter them over the head with. The problem is exacerbated by the intricacies of Senate procedures, where the key vote may be on the motion to table the motion to reconsider some proposal.

Second, people who vote in Republican primaries are to the right of the Republican Party and way right of mainstream America and people who vote in Democratic primaries are the left of the Democratic Party and way left of mainstream America. As a consequence, candidates who might be able to win the general election are often disliked by primary voters as too centrist. Politicans respond by talking fairly extreme during primary season and then ignoring what they said in the Spring during the Fall. Count on it.

Also worth nothing is that two years before the election, few people are tuned in and pollsters asking "Who would you like to win the Democratic Party nomination might as well be asking "Please name some Democrat." Ditto for the Republicans. In 2002, everyone was expecting Gore or Lieberman to be the Democratic nominee in 2004. Nobody saw the rise (and fall) of Howard Dean. As Harold Wilson famously remarked,: "In politics, a week is a long time."

Click on a picture for the candidate's home page.
Click on a name for the candidate's entry in the Wikipedia.
Click on a party (D) or (R) for the national party

All off-site references open in a new window. Type CTRL-W in the window to close it.

Here are the Republican wannabes. Democrats in a few days.

Democrats

Candidate

Notes

Hillary
Clinton
(D)

Hillary Clinton scares the daylights out of BOTH parties. The Democrats know that half the country hates her guts. Part of the hatred is due to her being an "uppity woman," part due to her being a calculating politician, and part due to her role in the health care debacle in Bill's first term. On the other hand, the Republicans know she can raise boatloads of money, maybe more than they can, and they also know that her husband is without a doubt the best campaigner alive today and just itching to hit the campaign trail. Another point is that she is kind of sexy and some people may find that threatening. Golda Meir and Margaret Thatcher didn't have that problem. Another strike against her is that to win, the Democrats have to do better in the South or the interior West and a senator from the Northeast is a tough sell there. Still, with universal name recognition, a razor-sharp mind, and more cash than Uncle Scrooge, she's the person to beat.

Candidate

Notes

Al
Gore
(D)

Al Gore is the 800-pound gorilla waiting in the wings. Like Hillary, he has universal name recognition and if he runs, the blogosphere will raise millions for him in a flash. People often ask: "What do the Democrats stand for?" Gore could answer: "Saving the planet; it's the only one we have." He could also quote NYT columnist Tom Friedman and say: "We will never win the war on terror if we keep on financing both sides." The centerpiece of his program could be ethanol as fuel (popular in Iowa and the Midwest), alternative energy, and conservation with the additional goal of eliminating imports of oil from the Middle East by, say, 2020. That would cut off the terrorists' money supply. His role model could be Richard Nixon, who narrowly lost a bitter election in 1960 (when Mayor Daley raised the dead to vote in great numbers) but came back to win eight years later.

Candidate

Notes

Barack
Obama
(D)

Barack Obama is experiencing a bit of a boomlet now, but a young black freshman senator with no foreign policy experience is an inviting target for the Republicans. Yes, Jack Kennedy was a freshman senator in 1960, but he had already served two terms in the House and was a war hero in WWII (but Lloyd Bentsen is dead so Obama need not fear him saying: Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy). Also instructive is what happened to Harold Ford, Jr., another charismatic young black Democrat, in the recent Tennessee senatorial election. The Republicans ran a now-infamous bimbo ad showing a sleazy blonde winking at Ford, and Ford lost his lead. The Republicans will harp on Obama's lack of military service and foreign policy experience, although he could counter that by choosing Wesley Clark as veep and Sam Nunn as Defense Secretary. Still, he probably lacks the gravitas people expect in a president.

Candidate

Notes

John
Edwards
(D)

John Edwards has a lot going for him. He is well known, from the South, and knows how to run a national campaign. He is also an extraordinarily good speaker and has a consistent message: preventing the country from dividing into the haves and the have nots. For middle class people barely hanging on, his economic populism could have great appeal. The death of his 16-year son in an auto accident in 1996 and how he recovered from that trauma gives him some authenticity that other politicians lack. Another thing going for Edwards is that he is perceived as a friendly, likeable guy and that counts for a lot. He has been campaigning virtually nonstop since 2004.

Candidate

Notes

Evan
Bayh
(D)

Evan Bayh is a Democratic senator from deep-red Indiana, occupying the seat his father held for 18 years. His selling points are the his four massive victories (twice for governor and twice for senator) in a very Republican state in the heartland. Few Democratic candidates have his proven ability to get large numbers of conservative Republicans to vote for them. He has also been an outspoken critic of the Bush administration and called for Donald Rumsfeld's resignation in 2004, something that gives him street cred with the liberal wing of the Democratic Party. Bayh and Edwards have similar views and will be competing for the same demographic groups.

Candidate

Notes

Bill
Richardson
(D)

To win the presidency, the Democrats have to do better in the South, the Lower Midwest, or the West. Furthermore, governors do a lot better than senators. Add to this the fact that Hispanics are the fastest growing ethnic group in the country. Enter Bill Richardson stage left, the Hispanic governor of New Mexico, who previously served in Congress, was ambassador to the United Nations, and was Bill Clinton's Secretary of Energy. Richardson's mother is Mexican and he grew up in Mexico City, so he speaks fluent Spanish. He just won reelection with 68% of the vote, the largest gubernatorial win in the state's history. He is well-known in the region and a Richardson candidacy could potentially bring in New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado, all of which have sizeable and growing Hispanic populations. Of course, against John McCain, they cancel each other on this score.

Candidate

Notes

Wesley
Clark
(D)

If the war in Iraq (or Iran or somewhere else) is on the front burner, retired four-star general Wesley Clark could be a credible candidate. he served in the army for 34 years and ended up as NATO's Supreme Allied Commander. On the other hand, he ran a lackluster campaign in 2004, but maybe he learned from it. In any event, a good showing in a run for the presidency would make him prime veep material for one of the candidates lacking military credentials.

Candidate

Notes

Tom
Vilsack
(D)

Tom Vilsack waited exactly two days after the Nov. 2006 election to announce his candidacy for the presidency. He is not well known so he has no time to waste. As a popular governor of the state holding the first caucus or primary, he has a good chance to make a strong showing. On the other hand, for the former governor of Iowa to win in Iowa doesn't prove much. Some people have speculated that is really a stalking horse for Hillary Clinton. He allows her to skip Iowa, claiming that she is deferring to the local son. If she loses the other retail politics state, New Hampshire, she can still move onto the states where big-time money is crucial. While lightning could strike, a Vilsack candidacy is more likely to be seen as a bid for the vice presidency, where a popular Midwesteren could be an asset to the ticket.

Candidate

Notes

John
Kerry
(D)

Finally we come to John Kerry, who dreams of mulligans. After running a singularly bad campaign and not even bothering to fight the vote count in Ohio, he is not a popular figure among Democrats. His chances of getting a do-over are very, very small. The last time the Democrats ran a loser again was with Adlai Stevenson in 1956, who at least passionately supported their candidate although they knew it was a losing cause. When Kerry starts campaigning, Democrats are going to be the first to throw brickbats, saying things like: "When the swiftboating started, why didn't you keep demanding why Bush didn't volunteer to go to Vietnam, like you did?" John can dream on, but he has virtually no chance once the other candidates get better known.

Republicans

Candidate

Notes

John
McCain
(R)

John McCain is probably the front runner for the Republican nomination right now, but his nomination is no sure thing. McCain tries very hard to culivate his image of a moderate, despite being very conservative. (Some recent ratings: ADA: 0%; AFL-CIO: 14%; Chamber of Commerce: 72%; Christian Coalition: 83%; NAACP: 5%; NARAL: 0%; NOW: 0%; Nat. Taxpayers Union: 78%). Nevertheless, that's not good enough for The Base, which distrusts him because he voted against a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. He is opposed to gay marriage; he is just against amending the constitution for this. He is spending a lot of time cozying up to Jerry Falwell and friends, but their love is easily withdrawn if a "movement conservative" is available (think: Sam Brownback or equivalent). McCain is also to the right of Bush on the war: he wants to send more troops. If the war is still the dominant issue in 2008, he's got a problem. But if domestic issues dominate, he may not be electable. Age could also play a role as he will be 76 at the end of a first term, three years older than Ronald Reagan was then. Nevertheless, even with this drawbacks, he is perceived as a moderate and in politics perception is everything. He is probably the Republican's best shot.

Candidate

Notes

Chuck
Hagel
(R)

Like John McCain, Chuck Hagel is a decorated Vietnam veteran. Since Hagel is less well known than McCain, he is staking out a different piece of territory: he says the war has failed and we ought to start thinking about getting out. He has been far more critical of George Bush than any Democrat, even John Murtha. If the war is still the dominant issue in 2008, he can say "I warned you years ago" and have a lot of credibility. Also unlike McCain, he is not cozying up to the right-wing preachers, which may hurt him in the primaries but will help him in the general election. On domestic issues, he is slightly more conservative than McCain, though. He positively radiates integrity and gravitas and at 60, he looks like a president.

Candidate

Notes

Sam
Brownback
(R)

Sam Brownback is not widely known, but as the race heats up, he could be a reverse Howard Dean, wildly exciting The Base. He is very conservative, opposing gay marriage, stem cell research, evolution, and the whole nine yards. Think of him as Kansas' answer to Rick Santorum. Unlike some politicians he has been very consistent in his views over the years and the evangelicals could quickly come to adore him. His main problem would be convincing primary voters that he could win the general election.

Candidate

Notes

Mitt
Romney
(R)

Mitt Romney is the son of former Michigan governor and failed presidential candidate George Romney. Romney is pro business and moderately conservative. However, he has two major problems. First, he was a 1-term governor of Massachusetts, a state not known for launching the careers of conservative Republicans (as of January 2007, Democrats will control the governor's mansion, both Senate seats, and all 10 House seats). Second, he is a Mormon, and unfortunately many evangelicals don't like Mormons. While religious discrimination shouldn't play a role in politics, in his case it will.

Candidate

Notes

George
Pataki
(R)

Unlike senators, who rarely make it to the White House, many governors have made the jump. Big-state governors often get bitten by the presidential bug and Pataki is no exception. He has been elected governor of New York three times and is now getting bored with the job. Like other Northeast Republicans, he is socially liberal (he is pro choice and pro gay rights) and fiscally conservative, but this puts him on a collision course with The Base. He is unlikely to win the nomination but would be a strong candidate in the general election if he somehow got nominated as a compromise candidate in a deadlocked convention.

Candidate

Notes

Tommy
Thompson
(R)

Tommy Thompson was elected four times as governor of Wisconsin, leaving the state when George Bush appointed him as Secrtary of Health and Human Services in 2004, a job he stayed with for two years. As a long-term governor from a key Midwest swing state, he is a plausible presidential candidate, but it is not known if he really, really wants the job, a key requirement. He could have run for the Senate in 2006, but declined.

Candidate

Notes

Mike
Huckabee
(R)

Mike Huckabee, born in Hope, Arkansas, is currently finishing his second elected term as governor of his native state. He is keenly aware that another Hope native who governed Arkansas went on to bigger and better things. Huckabee used to be so fat that he could barely walk up the steps to his office. His subsequent diagnosis of diabetes scared him and he lost over 100 pounds and wrote a book entitled "Quit Digging Your Grave with a Knife and Fork. As governor he has focused on health issues. As an ordained Baptist minister from the South, he has a leg up on the competition, but as governor, he has had to be pragmatic and is not the kind of firebrand many Republicans want. Still, if everyone else falters, he may look increasingly good.

Candidate

Notes

Rudy
Giuliani
(R)

Rudy Giuliani scores well in national polls, but it is almost inconceivable that he could get the Republican nomination. Here's the ad Karl Rove will use against him: "When his beautiful actress second wife got tired of his cheating on her with his soon-to-be third wife, she kicked him out of the house, so he moved in with his best friends, a rich, loving gay couple living on Manhattan's chic upper east side. Throw in Giuliani's longstanding support of abortion, gay rights, and gun control, and to the Republican activists who vote in primaries, he might as well be the former mayor of Sodom and Gomorrah. He could become president though. All he has to do is become a Democrat. Imagine, a pro-choice, pro-gay, anti-gun tough guy former prosecutor. He'd give Hillary a real run for her money.

Candidate

Notes

Condi
Rice
(R)

Condi vs. Hillary? Wouldn't that be a gas? Condi has universal name recognition and she is tough as nails, but could an unmarried black woman win her native Alabama? Like Hillary, she is not widely liked as a person, even by people who agree with her politics. And her widely-publicized shoe-buying spree while Katrina was making hundreds of thousands of people homeless didn't help her image much. Furthermore, she has never been elected to public office. She might make a plausible veep for a presidential candidate with no foreign policy experience though.

Candidate	Notes
Newt Gingrich (R)	Newt Gingrich is the ghost of Christmas past. He engineered the Republican revolution of 1994, but like Robespierre and Tom DeLay, was consumed by his own revolution. With the Democrats now back in power and his plans for a permanent Republican majority up in smoke, he seems unlikely to get the nod. But if the party begged him to be the nominee, he would graciously accept.

Ex-candidate

Notes

Bill
Frist
(R)

Would you want to be operated on by a heart surgeon who can't tell living people from dead people? Frist declined to run for reelection to the Senate so he could pursue the presidency, but the fallout from the Terri Schiavo affair did him in. Besides, he couldn't even manage 55 Republican senators, so how could he manage the whole country. Realizing all this, instead of tossing his hat in the ring, on Nov. 29, 2006, he tossed in the towel instead.

Nov 28, Projected U.S. Senate: 51 Democrats 49 Republicans

Tue, 28 Nov 2006 06:00:00 EDT

CQ Politics has an excellent wrap-up the the Senate races just concluded.

Nov 27, Projected U.S. Senate: 51 Democrats 49 Republicans

Mon, 27 Nov 2006 06:00:00 EDT

We're still waiting for the outcomes in FL-13 , NC-08 , and TX-23 . The former is the most important, since it could conceivably result in paperless voting machines being outlawed in Florida. In case, you just tuned in, 18,000 voters in Sarasota County didn't bother to vote for Congress, an undervote rate 4 or 5 times higher than in other counties in FL-13 . The catch: Sarasota County used electronic voting machines and the others didn't. Florida Supreme Court, here we come.

I am not going to update this site every day from now on, but I will do that from time to time, especially when I find an article related to 2008 that seems interesting. I will also make a start on the 2008 Website shortly. Check back maybe once to week and click on "Pevious report" above to see if you missed anything.

For example, David Broder had a very nice column on New Hampshire and Iowa politics. In short, the Democrats won all the marbles in New Hampshire and did pretty well in Iowa, too. Winning the governorship, both House seats, and both houses of the state legislature is especially noteworthy in New Hampshire since the state has traditionally been fairly Republican. Probably both (Republican) senators were giving thanks last week that they weren't on the ballot.

Nov 23, Projected U.S. Senate: 51 Democrats 49 Republicans

Thu, 23 Nov 2006 06:00:00 EDT

The House race between incumbent Robin Hayes (R) and high school teacher Larry Kissell (D) is still a cliff hanger. Manual recounting of the ballots is taking place. That a totally unknown high school teacher could fight a wealthy four-term incumbent who is the grandson of a textile baron to a near-exact tie is amazing in itself. The latest figures put Hayes ahead by about 170 votes.

SurveyUSA has just released it latest popularity ratings on all 100 senators. Food for thought for 2008.

Nov 22, Projected U.S. Senate: 51 Democrats 49 Republicans

Wed, 22 Nov 2006 06:00:00 EDT

It is now official: Jean Schmidt (R) run reelection in OH-02 over Victoria Wulsin (D). Schmidt is the freshman congresswoman who called John Murtha (R-PA), a 38-year veteran of the Marine Corps, a coward. I had already noted her as the winner. I have also noted Deborah Pryce as the winner in her Ohio House race. Furthermore, John Barrow (D) has now been declared the winner in GA-12 over Max Burns (R). This means that the election was a shutout: No incumbent Democrat running for reelection in the Senate, House, or a governor's mansion was defeated. Every Democrat who tried to be relected for this offices was. I don't think this has ever happened before. Even in 1994, a few incumbent Republicans were beaten.

The races still to be decided are FL-13 , NC-08 , and TX-23 . All are held by Republicans, so even if the incumbents win all three of them, it will still be a shutout.

The Wall Street Journal has a comparison of how well the pollsters did on the Senate races. See also my table on Nov. 12. Briefly summarized, here are the results for the Senate:

Arizona - Kyl (R) by 9%: all pollsters within MoE
Maryland - Cardin (D) by 11%: Zogby close; rest underestimated Cardin
Michigan - Stabenow (D) by 16%: Rasmussen perfect, EPIC good; Zogby, SUSA too low
Minnesota - Klobuchar (D) by 20%: everybody underestimated her
Missouri - McCaskill (D) by 2%: Everybody within MoE
Montana - Tester (D) by 1%: Everybody within MoE
New Jersey - Menendez (D) by 8%: M-D a bit too low; rest within MoE
Ohio - Brown (D) by 12%: Rasmussen perfect; SUSA too high; Zogby too low
Pennsylvania - Casey (D) by 18%: Everybody underestimated Casey
Rhode Island - Whitehouse (D) by 6%: Rasmussen good; Zogby too high; M-D too low
Tennessee - Corker (R) by 3%: M-D and Zogby expected bigger Corker wins; rest ok
Virginia - Webb (D) by 1%: Zogby, M-D perfect; rest, slightly off
Washington - Cantwell (D) by 19%: everybody underestimated her; M-D came closest

All in all, the pollsters did quite well this time.

Nov 21, Projected U.S. Senate: 51 Democrats 49 Republicans

Tue, 21 Nov 2006 06:00:00 EDT

Patricia Madrid (D) has conceded to Heather Wilson (R) in NM-01 . Wilson won a fifth term by 879 votes. No doubt this seat will be hotly contested in 2008.

Nov 20, Projected U.S. Senate: 51 Democrats 49 Republicans

Mon, 20 Nov 2006 06:00:00 EDT

The problems with the vote in FL-13 are not over. In Sarasota County, one of the counties in FL-13 , over 18,000 people failed to vote for Congress, yet voted for other offices. Many of the voters complained that they did vote for Congress but the review screen at the end did not show their vote for Congress. The electronic equipment used does not allow recounts, as required by Florida law. This is going to court shortly. See http://www.wired.com/news/politics/evote/0,72130-0.html?tw=wn_index_1 Another option would be for the House to seat Vern Buchanan (R) who won by 368 votes and then expel him, forcing a special election.

Even better would be for the House to pass a resolution stating that it will not count the electoral votes in 2008 of states whose voting equipment does not have a paper trail. That would cause an uproar, but might solve the problem once and for all by forcing states to use only voting machines with a paper trail. ATM machines provide a paper trail. It would not be hard for voting machines to print a voter-verifiable paper receipt that could be deposited in a locked ballot box in case a recount was needed.