All Senate Races Alphabetically by State

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Arizona

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jon Kyl (R)	Jim Pederson (D)	Likely to be one of the most expensive Senate races. Pederson has a lot of money and he intends to spend it. But although Kyl is far less visible than his colleague John McCain, he has done little to give the voters cause for sending him home. Even with popular Democratic governor Janet Napolitano on top of the ticket, Leans Republican.

California

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Dianne Feinstein (D)	Dick Mountjoy (R)	"Di Fi" as she is sometimes called in this tech-heavy state, has been in the Senate since 1992. She is moderate in outlook and popular in her heavily Democratic state. She will trounce the unknown Republican chosen as sacrificial lamb. Safe Democratic.

Connecticut

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Ned Lamont (D)	Alan Schlesinger (R)	After a bitterly contested primary in which antiwar multimillionaire businessman Ned Lamont beat incumbent Democratic senator Joe Lieberman, we have a three-way race if Lieberman decides to run as an independent. In that case, all bets are off. Speaking of bets, the Republican candidate, Alan Schlesinger loves to bet--under the false name of Alan Gold. The Republican party is trying its best to get Schlesigner off the ticket because with a strong candidate in a three-way race, their horse might just win. But Schlesinger is just doubling down and not budging. The reality is, this is Primary, Part II: a rematch of Lamont vs. Lieberman, but with Republicans and independents allow to vote this time. If you really don't know what Joe Lieberman looks like, click here. Safe Democratic.

Delaware

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Tom Carper (D)	Jan Ting (R)	Law professor Jan Ting won a 300-vote victory over his primary opponent, airline pilot Mike Protact. However now he must face popular incumbent Tom Carper in the general election. In this heavily Democratic state, Carper will glide to an easy victory. Safe Democratic

Florida

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Bill Nelson (D)	Katherine Harris (R)	In theory, Nelson should be in trouble as Florida has tended Republican in recent years, but Katherine Harris, already bitterly hated by half the state due to her role in the 2000 election, has proven to be a totally incompetent candidate. Every time she hires more staff, they quit because she won't let them do their jobs. She wants to micromanage everything. Liddy Dole, chair of the NRSC (National Republican Senatorial Committee) really bungled this one. Nelson was very vulnerable and Dole should have sought out a much stronger candidate and showered buckets of money on him (Allan Bense, speaker of the Florida House, comes to mind). But she didn't. Gov. Jeb Bush has publicly stated he expects Harris to lose. Safe Democratic.

Hawaii

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Daniel Akaka (D)	Cynthia Thielen (R)	Daniel Akaka has been in Congress for 30 years and the Republicans are going to have to do something startling to beat him in this heavily Democratic state. Cynthia Thielen is assistant minority leader in the state House, but that isn't enough. Safe Democratic.

Indiana

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Dick Lugar (R)		Sen. Lugar is one of those rare senators who commands respect from both sides of the aisle. He is considered one the most knowledgeable senators in the area of foreign policy and is willing to buck his own party on occasion when he feels it is wrong. He is so popular and respected back home in Indiana that the Democrats aren't even going to bother to field an opponent. Safe Republican.

Maine

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Olympia Snowe (R)	Jean Bright (D)	If URLs were an indicator of patriotism, Jean Hay Bright would be #1 as she is the only Senate candidate with a URL in the .us domain. However, she has the misfortune of running agains Olympia Snowe, who is the second most popular senator, and even with a URL in the .com domain, will win handily. Safe Republican.

Maryland

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Ben Cardin (D)	Michael Steele (R)	With the retirement of Paul Sarbanes (D), Maryland has an open seat. Rep. Kweisi Mfume was initially the mostly likely candidate to win the Democratic primary on Sept. 12, but Ben Cardin beat him and now faces Lt. Gov. Michael Steele. The race is expected to be close, but Maryland is a heavily Democratic state, which gives Cardin an edge. On the other hand, if Steele can mobilize enough African Americans, he could pull off an upset, but most African Americans are Democrats, so it won't be easy. Leans Democratic.

Massachusetts

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Ted Kennedy (D)	Ken Chase (R)	Old war horse Ted Kennedy could have been president had he been a better driver, but he will have to be content with being a senator until he dies. Ken Chase is his Republican opponent, but Chase is chasing an illusion if he thinks he has a chance. Safe Democratic.

Michigan

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Debbie Stabenow (D)	Michael Bouchard (R)	Stabenow is one of the weaker Democratic incumbents and the job losses in Michigan haven't helped her at all. But with a strong Democratic tide expected nationally, she will probably hang onto her seat against the challenge from Oakland County sheriff Mike Bouchard. Safe Democratic.

Minnesota

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Amy Klobuchar (D)	Mark Kennedy (R)	With the retirement of Sen. Mark Dayton (D-MN), Minnesota has an open seat. It was expected to be close, with Hennepin County attorney Amy Klobuchar facing off against Rep. Mark Kennedy. However, every poll in Minnesota since January shows Klobuchar ahead. Kennedy may yet regret giving up his safe seat in the House for this race since it is likely the Democrats will win both the Senate seat and the House seat. Leans Democratic.

Mississippi

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Trent Lott (R)	Erik Fleming (D)	Lott hasn't faced the voters since he lost his job as Senate majority leader for praising Strom Thurmond's 1948 presidential campaign which was based on the idea of racial segregation now and racial segregation forever. However, that remark was made 4 years ago and voters have short memories. Lott toyed with the idea of retiring after this term because his home in Pascagoula, MS, was destroyed by hurricane Katrina, and that was his principal financial asset, but ultimately he decided to try again. He is almost sure to win a fourth term. Safe Republican.

Missouri

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jim Talent (R)	Claire McCaskill (D)	This race is going to be one of the most-watched and closest in the nation. In 2000, a dead man, Gov. Mel Carnahan, was elected to the Senate three weeks after his campaign plane crashed. The new governor appointed Carnahan's wife, Jean, to the Senate. In 2002, Jim Talent beat her in a special election to fill out the remainder of Gov. Carnahan's term. Thus although Talent is the incumbent, his victory was over a neophyte put in office by tragic circumstances and he has yet to be tested in a competitive state-wide race. His opponent, Claire McCaskill, has twice been elected state auditor in competitive races. Missouri is the perfect bellwether state and all eyes will be on this race. Tossup.

Montana

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Conrad Burns (R)	Jon Tester (D)	Although Bush clobbered Kerry here in 2004, the state is not as Republican as some people think. The popular governor, Brian Schweitzer, is a Democrat and the Democrats control both houses of the state legislature. The other senator is also a Democrat. Combine this with Burns close association with disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff and Burns has the fight of his life here against State Senate President, Jon Tester. Polls have shown Tester leading all year. Leans Democratic.

Nebraska

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Ben Nelson (D)	Pete Ricketts (R)	The Nelson boys (Ben in Nebraska and Bill in Florida) were the Republicans best shots at picking off Democrats in the Senate. Nebraska is a hugely Republican state so Nelson was easy prey. But no serious Republican wanted to run, so they were stuck with a total unknown and Nelson will coast to victory. In Florida, Bill Nelson is so weak that the only Republican in the state he could beat is Katherine Harris--and that's who the Republicans nominated. Both Nelsons are safe. Safe Democratic.

Nevada

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
John Ensign (R)	Jack Carter (D)	If your dad was president, politics surely gets into your blood, so son Jack Carter is running for the Senate. Although he has degrees in science and law, Carter works in the financial industry. His opponent, one-term senator John Ensign, was formerly a veterinarian. Ensign was expected to be reelected easily, but recent polls have shown Carter catching up. This is one of those races where a strong Democratic tide could carry in a challenger against an incumbent. Leans Republican.

New Jersey

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Bob Menendez (D)	Tom Kean (R)	When Sen. Jon Corzine was elected governor of New Jersey in 2005, he got to appoint his own successor to the Senate and chose Rep. Bob Menendez, making him the second Cuban-American to serve in the Senate (the first is Florida's Sen. Mel Martinez). Thus although he is the incumbent, Menendez has never won a state-wide race. On the other hand, neither has his opponent, Tom Kean, Jr, although his father was a popular two-term governor of New Jersey. Although New Jersey is reliably Democratic in presidential races, this one will be close. Tossup.

New Mexico

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jeff Bingaman (D)	Allen McCullogh (R)	Jeff Bingaman is a four-term senator going for his fifth term. Although New Mexico is a swing state in presidential elections, Bingaman is very popular in the state and the best the Republicans could find is a urologist in private practice who has never run for public office before. Even NRSC chair Liddy Dole has more-or-less abandoned this race, although with a stronger candidate, the Republicans could have had a fighting chance here. Safe Democratic.

New York

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Hillary Clinton (D)	John Spencer (R)	About the only thing exciting about Hillary's romp to reelection will be the question of how much money she has in the bank after the election to fund her run for the presidency in 2008. She is probably the first presidential candidate in history who has both parties scared to death. The Republicans are scared witless by her prodigious ability to raise money by the boatload, thus eliminating what has always been a huge Republican advantage. And they also know that her husband is probably the best campaigner alive now. The Democrats know that half the country hates her bitterly and think she can't be elected president, money or no money, husband or no husband. Safe Democratic.

North Dakota

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Kent Conrad (D)	Dwight Grotberg (R)	Given that Bush beat Kerry by 28% in this rural farm state, you would have thought NRSC chair Liddy Dole would have tried a bit harder to find a serious candidate. Grotberg has never before run for public office and has little chance. Safe Democratic.

Ohio

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mike DeWine (R)	Sherrod Brown (D)	As Ohio goes, so goes the nation. This is a do-or-die struggle for both parties. Incumbent Mike DeWine is in big trouble in part due to national trends but also due to the endless corruption scandals in the Ohio Republican party. Sherrod Brown is a popular seven-term congressman and was Ohio Secretary of State in the 1980s. Originally, Iraq vet Paul Hackett announced for this race, but Brown elbowed him out of the way, which didn't make him a lot of friends on the far left. But Ohio is a centrist state and this one is going to be close. However, Brown has had a consistent lead in the polls all year. Leans Democratic.

Pennsylvania

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Rick Santorum (R)	Bob Casey (D)	Rick Santorum is about tied with Lincoln Chafee for the title of "Republican incumbent most likely to lose." Santorum is a member of the Republican leadership and is far more conservative than the state he represents. He has the bad luck to be facing state treasurer Bob Casey who can hardly be tagged as a 'liberal' (Casey is pro-life but otherwise a moderate). Casey is the son of a former popular Pennsylvania governor, Robert Casey. This race is one of the Democrats best chances for a pickup, and both sides are going to pull out all stops to win it. The polls have consistently favored Casey. Leans Democratic.

Rhode Island

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Lincoln Chafee (R)	Sheldon Whitehouse (D)	This race has the Republicans gnashing their teeth. They have to support Chafee in order to help hold the seat in this most Democratic of states, but they don't like him and he often votes with the Democrats. Most likely the only reason he hasn't switched parties is out of allegiance to his late father, John Chafee, who held the seat before him. To win the primary from Cranston mayor Steve Laffey, Chafee had to jog to the right, but win the general election, he has to jog to the left. It won't be easy. Leans Democratic.

Tennessee

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Bob Corker (R)	Harold Ford (D)	When Bill Frist (R) decided not to run for reelection so he could concentrate on running for president, he left behind an open seat that will be bitterly fought over. While Tennessee usually votes Republican (Al Gore didn't even carry it in 2000, despite it being his home state), Congressman Ford is doing surprisingly well against former Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker. The odds favor Corker, but if the Democratic tide is strong enough, Ford could pull an upset. Initial polls show it to be surprisingly close. Tossup.

Texas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Kay Hutchison (R)	Barbara Radnofsky (D)	Nobody in Texas is paying attention to this race. Kay Bailey Hutchison is a shoo-in for reelection. Most likely, Radnofsky is running to get state-wide exposure for a run in 2008 against the far less popular John Cornyn. Instead all eyes are on the peculiar four-way gubernatorial race between lackluster governor Rick Perry, eccentric Jewish cowboy Kinky Friedman, independent Grandma Carole Keeton Strayhorn (mother of President Bush's second press secretary), and Democratic Congressman Chris Bell.

Utah

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Orrin Hatch (R)	Pete Ashdown (D)	How do you run for the Senate against a long-time senator with mountains of cash, universal name recognition in the state, and whose party totally dominates state politics? Pete Ashdown thinks the way to go is try something unconventional. His entire campaign is Internet based, including such innovations as allowing anyone who wants to to edit his campaign positions. While stirring up a lot of media attention, Ashdown has no chance whatsoever of actually winning. Safe Republican.

Vermont

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Bernie Sanders (I)	Rich Tarrant (R)	Although Vermont isn't the only state in which the Democrats are not fielding a Senate candidate, it is the only one of those in which they are certain of winning. The reason is eccentric, independent seven-term Rep. Bernie Sanders, who is wildly popular and caucuses with the Democrats. What did you expect from a state where the biggest tourist attraction is a yuppie ice cream factory? Sanders is running for the seat now being vacated by Jim Jeffords, himself not exactly standard issue, having switched from being a Republican to being an independent aligned with the Democrats in 2001, thus flipping the Senate. Safe Independent.

Virginia

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
George Allen (R)	Jim Webb (D)	Although Virginia usually favors Republicans for president, the past two governors have been Democrats. Nevertheless, Sen. George Allen would have been a shoo-in for reelection were it not for three facts. First, the rapidly growing northern part of the state is trending Democratic. Second, Allen's opponent can't be tarred as a liberal: he served in Ronald Reagan's administration as Secretary of the Navy. Third, Allen, is nearly certainly going to run for president in 2008, so the Democrats would love to beat him now. Allen is still favored, but it will be a real brawl. Allen stepped in the macaca big time in August and that cost him 10 percentage points in the polls. Leans Republican.

Washington

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Maria Cantwell (D)	Mike McGavick (R)	Maria Cantwell won her race in 2000 by the slimmest of margins, so she is potentially vulnerable. Her opponent is Mike McGavick, the CEO of an insurance company who has never held public office. Many pundits see running an untested businessman against a vulnerable incumbent as a sign of weakness. Couldn't Liddy Dole find a state senator or big-city mayor? With the wind at her back, Cantwell will probably make it though. Safe Democratic.

West Virginia

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Robert Byrd (D)	John Raese (R)	Sen. Robert Byrd has come a long way in his 60 years as an elected public official, from member of the Ku Klux Klan in his youth to the Senate's strongest defender of civil liberties who always carries a copy of the Constitution in his pocket. Byrd has served longer in the Senate than any person in history and is now trying for an unprecendented ninth term. The only person in West Virgina who stood a chance of unseating him, Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, ultimately decided not to give up her safe House seat to take him on. At 86, he will coast to another victory over John Raese, a local businessman who has twice run for governor and twice run for senator and lost all four races. Raese must enjoy campaigning, since his chance of winning is less than epsilon, for all epsilon (in-joke for statisticians). Safe Democratic.

Wisconsin

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Herb Kohl (D)	Robert Lorge (R)	A main part of the job of the chair of the NRSC is to recruit strong Senate candidates. In that respect, Liddy Dole has failed miserably. Not only was she unable to find good candidates to face weak Democrats in Florida and Nebraska, but she pinned all her hopes in swing-state Wisconsin on talking popular former governor Tommy Thompson into running, despite his repeatedly saying in public that he had no interest in being a senator. When Thompson definitively said he wouldn't run, she had no backup, so Kohl, who is the second richest senator in a club not known for having many paupers, gets a free pass for his fourth term. Theoretically, the Republicans do have a candidate here, a lawyer named Robert Lorge who ran for secretary of state in 2002 and lost, but this is an ego trip, not a serious candidacy. Safe Democratic.

Wyoming

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Craig Thomas (R)	Dale Groutage (D)	While it is not impossible that Dale Groutage could unseat Craig Thomas in this highly Republican state (Wyoming governor Dave Freudenthal is a Democrat), it is more likely that pigs will fly. Safe Republican.