The current breakdown of the Senate is as follows (where we count the three independents as Democrats):

13 Democratic seats are up for reelection in 2026 and 34 seats are not up, for a total of 47 seats
22 Republican seats are up for (re)election in 2026 and 31 seats are not up, for a total of 53 seats

For the time being, we are assuming all incumbents will run for reelection unless they specifically state that they won't. The totals above include the special elections for the rest of the term for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) ending Jan. 3, 2029 and Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), also ending on Jan. 3, 2029.

The map slightly favors the Republicans. because if no seats flip, the Republicans will hold their majority. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is clearly endangered. The only Republicans potentially endangered are Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC). If Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) retires and Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) runs for his seat, that seat might possibly be in play.

Both Beshear and Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) have presidential ambitions for 2028. In addition, either or both might run for the Senate in 2026. Their decisions are key. For the Democrats, the best-case scenario is that Beshear runs and flips the Kentucky seat while Kemp holds off and Ossoff hangs on. If Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) runs and beats Collins in Maine, that is +1 for the blue tean. If former North Carolina governor Roy Cooper challenges and beats Tillis, that is another +1 for the blue team. If Beshear, Mills, and Cooper all run and win, the new Senate will probably be 50-50 because not a lot of other seats are in play. The Democrats' best chance for a fourth new seat is in Ohio or Florida because appointed senators don't have a great track record. But the planets and stars all have to align to pull that off. Alternatvely, if Donald Trump really hikes tariffs, despite the ghosts of Reed Smoot and Willis Hawley telling him not to do it, and that causes a major recession, there could be a blue wave.

The Democratic-held seats are listed first below, in alphabetical order by state, with the Republicans following.

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Democratic-held seats

Colorado

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
John Hickenlooper (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Colorado has ceased to be a swing state, so the two-term governor will soon become a two-term senator. There are plenty of Republicans in libertarian Colorado, but none with a track record of winning three statewide elections.

Delaware

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Chris Coons (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Chris Coons had the pleasure of running against Christine "I am not a witch" O'Donnell in a 2010 special election to fill the Senate seat that was vacated by Joe Biden when he became Vice President. He has been around ever since and will continue to be until he decides to retire.

Georgia

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Jon Ossoff (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	This will be the most watched race in 2026, especially if Gov. Brian Kemp jumps in. Kemp really wants to be president, but he could see this as a stepping stone. His one liability will be the millionth time a reporter asks him: "Will you promise to fulfil you complete term as a senator if you win? Jon Ossoff could make his whole campaign about this, saying: I have only one goal if elected: Serve the people of Georgia for 6 years. I am not using this office as a stepping stone to higher office.

Illinois

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Dick Durbin (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Dick Durbin is minority whip, the second most powerful position in the Senate Democratic caucus. He is also from a very blue state, Illinois. Durbin's sixth term is already in the bag.

Massachusetts

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Ed Markey (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Masachusetts is a very blue state and Markey is a generic Democrat. He's in like Flynn. Maybe if former governor Charlie Baker jumped in, Markey might have to hustle a bit, but probably not so much. Former Maryland governor ran for the Senate in 2024 and was crushed by 10 points—and Massachusetts is bluer than Maryland. Baker is undoubtedly aware of all this.

Michigan

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Gary Peters (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Gary Peters won his first Senate term in 2014 when long-time senator Carl Levin retired. He is now running for his third term. Although Donald Trump carried Michigan in 2024, it also elected Elissa Slotkin to the Senate. Unless the Republicans can find a stellar candidate, Peters will probably get another term.

Minnesota

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Tina Smith (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Tina Smith was orginally appointed to the Senate, but she has gotten used to it and will probably run again. If she does, she will be the favorite.

New Hampshire

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Jeanne Shaheen (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	New Hampshire is one of the four states with two female senators. The others are Minnesota, Nevada, and Washington. If former governor Chris Sununu decides to run, it will be a real barnburner and the the number of state with two female senators could become three. He hasn't announced his plans yet. Like Brian Kemp and Ron DeSantis, he also has his eye on 2028.

New Jersey

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Cory Booker (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	The Republicans have trouble finding decent candidates, so Cory Booker is probably safe. Self-funding millionaires sometime can win in swing states, but New Jersey isn't a swing state.

New Mexico

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Ben Ray Lujan (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	The Republicans ran a weatherman last time. We didn't know they had weatherpersons in New Mexico. We thought it was nearly always sunny and dry. Maybe they will find someone better this time.

Oregon

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Jeff Merkley (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Last time, the Republicans couldn't find a serious candidate to run against the popular Merkley. They probably won't again this time.

Rhode Island

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Jack Reed (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Jack Reed is a low-profile guy who avoids the media and concentrates on service to his constituents. They apparently like that, since they elect him over and over. Expect more the same. Maybe pigs will fly in Rhode Island. The latter is definitely a better bet.

Virginia

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Mark Warner (D)	Candidate unknown (R)	Multimillionaire Mark Warner, the former governor of Virginia can stay in the Senate as long as he wants to. he shows no signs of getting bored with the job. If Glenn Youngkin ran, Warner might have to sweat it, but Youngkin has his sights on the White House. If he runs against Warner and loses, that is the end of his dream.

Republican-held seats

Alabama

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Tommy Tuberville (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Alabamians love their football coaches. Tuberville is safe. The fact that he was hit on the head one time too many when he was playing, doesn't make a whit of difference.

Alaska

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Dan Sullivan (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Alaska politics are a bit strange but Dan Sullivan is probably safe. Maybe Al Gross will run again, but probably not.

Arkansas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Tom Cotton (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Democrats didn't even bother to put up a candidate last time against Cotton. That's how bad it is. Cotton will win with or without an opponent.

Florida

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Candidate unknown (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	There will be a special election in Florida in Nov. 2026 to fill the seat of Marco Rubio from Jan. 3, 2027 until Jan. 3, 2029

Idaho

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Jim Risch (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Jim Risch has had an interesting history, running for lieutenant governor at a time when he was actually governor (as a result of a gubernatorial vacancy when then-governor Dirk Kempthorne resigned the governorship to become George W. Bush's secretary of the interior). In 2008, he ran for the Senate and won. In 2014 he ran again, and won in another landslide. Ditto 2020. Maybe the Democrats can find a candidate, but it hardly matters.

Iowa

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Joni Ernst (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	This race will be one of the Democrats' second-tier targets. Iowa is red, but not that red. Maybe if people are very angry at Donald Trump in 2026 for some reason, Ernst might be in some danger, otherwise not so much.

Kansas

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Roger Marshall (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	In the past 100 years, Kansas has sent exactly one Democrat to the Senate. George McGill won a special election in 1930 and was reelected in 1932. That's it. Marshall is as safe as his colleagues from Idaho and Wyoming.

Kentucky

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Mitch McConnell (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Everyone is expecting Mitch McConnell to ride off into the sunset as fast as a turtle can. He will be 84 and has health problems. If he does, Gov. Andy Beshear may run. The popular two-term governor and potential 2028 Democratic presidential nominee could make it a real race.

Louisiana

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Bill Cassidy (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	There aren't a lot of top Democrats left in Louisiana, Maybe Mitch Landrieu, who has served as lieutenant governor and mayor of New Orleans might run. It is hard to see any Democrat beating Cassidy though.

Maine

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Susan Collins (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Susan Collins belongs to a vanishing breed that once roamed New England like the buffalo in South Dakota: a somewhat moderate Northeastern Republican. She is personally popular in the state, but Democrats hate her with a white-hot passion because she talks like a moderate all the time but votes like a conservative Republican nearly always. This, along with Georgia, will be the most closely watched races, especially if Gov. Janet Mills decides to challenge Collins.

Mississippi

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	There aren't any white Democrats in Mississippi and there aren't enough Black people to beat Hyde-Smith. So she is safe.

Montana

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Steve Daines (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Montana is very red in presidential elections, but was somewhat purple in state elections. But Jon Tester, an incumbent, lost his seat in 2024, so maybe no Democrat can win statewide in Montana anymore.

Nebraska

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Pete Ricketts (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	In 2024, Pete Ricketts won a special election to fill out the term of Ben Sasse. Now he is up for a full term. We can't think of any Democrat who could beat him. William Jennings Bryan might have a chance, but July 26, 2025 will mark the 100th anniversary of Bryan's death.

North Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Thom Tillis (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	As more and more people from out of state move into the Research Triangle area, North Carolina is trending purple (Barack Obama won it in 2008) so this is going to be a competitive race. If Roy Cooper jumps in, he has a real chance since he was elected to two terms as governor. In 2020, Tillis won because his opponent, Cal Cunningham, has a zipper management problem. Cooper is forewarned.

Ohio

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Candidate unknown (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	There will be a special election in Ohio in Nov. 2026 to fill the seat of J.D. Vance from Jan. 3, 2027 until Jan. 3, 2029.

Oklahoma

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Markwayne Mullin (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Markwayne Mullin won a special election in 2022, In 2026, he will go for a full term. We can't imagine the Democrats, if there are any in Oklahoma, can find anyone who can stop him.

South Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Lindsey Graham (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Lindsey Graham acts like a man who is scared something bad about him is going to come out. He believes in nothing except his own survival. He acts Trumpy, but he doesn't mean it. He could be primaried and lose. But there really aren't any Democrats in South Carolina who could beat any Republican.

South Dakota

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Mike Rounds (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	This is another hopeless state for the blue team. Former governor and current senator Rounds can stay in the Senate until the Buffaloes come home.

Tennessee

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Bill Hagerty (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	This is yet another one-party state. Usually the Democrats can find someone willing to waste a year campaigning, but it is completely pointless.

Texas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
John Cornyn (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Texas is a state that always disappoints Democrats. They find a great candidate, he runs a great campaign. And then he comes up short. Over and over. If the Democrats couldn't even beat Ted Cruz, who is widely despised, they have no chance against John Cornyn, who is reasonably popular.

West Virginia

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes Polls
Shelley Moore-Capito (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	This is a very red state and the Democrats don't have any potential candidates. You can't beat someone with no one. Shelley Moore Capito is safe unless Joe Manchin changes his mind and runs against her as an independent, but that seems unlikely.

Wyoming

Challenger	Challenger	Notes Polls
Cynthia Lummis (R)	Candidate unknown (D)	Wyoming is one of the most Republican states in the country. Cynthis Lummis is definitely not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but she has that little magic (R) after her name. That's all that matters.