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Affordability, Affordability, Affordability

Politico commissioned Public First to conduct a poll on affordability. What do people actually mean when they say that? Where does it hurt, actually? The results paint a grim picture of what's going on with Americans. Here are a few of the concrete results.

In addition to these specific results, the top five general areas where the pain is most intense are groceries (45%), housing (38%), health care (34%), utility bills (31%) and debt repayment (17%).

Some other things stood out. A small minority of 2024 Trump voters (22%) say Trump's tariffs are helping the economy now and will continue to help it in the future. A larger chunk (36%) say they are hurting now but will help eventually. The others, not so much. And 55% blame Trump for high food prices, despite his attempts to blame Biden and Obama. Maybe he should try Martin van Buren next.

College is a big deal. Overall, 62% of Americans say going to college costs too much and the benefits are too small to justify the costs. They are not paying attention. The income gap between college and noncollege workers keeps growing and shows no sign of diminishing. For example, the Census Bureau recently found that the median household income in families headed by a college graduate is more than double that of families with high school diplomas but no college. Joe Biden tried to deal with this by forgiving student debt acquired while attending college, but the Supreme Court killed his plans. Biden also pitched efforts to boost technical education programs. Trump has done nothing except blackmail universities for trying to enroll and hire more minority students and employees.

Housing and health care are also issues that keep people awake at night. This is especially true of young people and Latinos. There is a huge divide between MAGA and non-MAGA Americans on health care. An astounding 84% of MAGA voters trust the Republicans to bring down health care costs. Among non-MAGA Republicans it is 49%, but a quarter of the latter actually think the Democrats will do better.

Trump doesn't get it. In fact, he hit the road Tuesday to tell people in Pennsylvania how great the economy is and how low prices are now. He kept calling affordability a hoax. He blamed the Democrats and said he had brought prices down. He has repeatedly said the economy is A+++++. That is not likely to play well with voters who have gone to a store recently. In reality, many products are up 2-3% this year, with steak, coffee, and cereal significantly more expensive.

Trump also told people to teach their children to live with less, especially products made abroad. He said: "You can give up pencils. They only need one or two. They don't need that many, but you always need steel. You don't need 37 dolls for your daughter, two or three is nice." For people whose daughters don't have 37 dolls and who are struggling with Christmas shopping, this message will surely be comforting.

Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) does get it. He said: "The President's statement does not reflect the reality on the ground here in a community where many Pennsylvanians voted for him in the last election. The record is clear: His policies have hurt the very communities that propelled him to the White House. Trump's tariffs and economic policies have raised prices at the grocery store, shuttered markets for our farmers, hurt our manufacturers, and dramatically increased the cost of living for Pennsylvanians." Shapiro is very likely to run for president in 2028 and is trying to establish himself in the center of the affordability lane. The reality is that there is not a lot presidents can do to lower prices short-term. What they can do short-term, however, is increase wages—for example, by getting Congress to raise the minimum wage.

Maybe Trump is right and he can bamboozle his supporters into thinking their grocery bill must be a typo, or if not, that it is Obama's fault, but recent elections have shown this strategy does not work with Democrats, independents, or normie Republicans. In many places, these groups together form a large majority of the voters. Unless things get better relatively soon, the midterms could be rather unpleasant for the Republicans. (V)

O Crap, It Is Crapo-Cassidy Time

One of the things the Democrats got out of the government shutdown (maybe the only concrete thing) is a promise that the Senate would vote on extending the ACA subsidies. Unlike the previous Republican Senate Majority Leader, Sen. John Thune (R-SD) is a man of honor. Today's the day and the vote will be held. But Republicans were embarrassed at just voting against the subsidies with nothing to offer themselves. So, Sens. Mike Crapo (R-ID) and Bill Cassidy (R-LA) cobbled together an alternative bill. Neither the Democratic bill nor the Republican one is going to get 60 votes. Then it will get tricky.

Crapo and Cassidy chair the Finance and HELP committees, respectively. Crapo was a lawyer in private practice before being elected to the Idaho state Senate. Cassidy worked as a physician. Their plan would allow eligible people who buy a bronze plan on an ACA exchange to get $1,000 (under 50s) to $1,500 (over 50s) deposited into their Health Savings Account to help pay for it. Bronze plans typically have a deductible of $7,500 for one person and $15,000 for a family plan each year, so you have to be quite sick to get any payout. The deposits would be for 2026 and 2027 only. Donald Trump likes the idea of sending government money to people directly like this, since it connects him to the money.

The consequence of this plan is that people who qualify have to buy what is essentially junk insurance, even though the government check can be used to pay part of the premium. If they get sick, they will be whacked with about $7,500 in bills and often some copayment if the bill exceeds that. Sabrina Corlette, a Georgetown professor who is an expert on health care policy, said the bill amounts to "offering people a 1-foot rope to get out of a 10-foot hole."

If and when the bills put forward by each caucus fail, ACA premiums will spike in January. Regular plans, offered through employers, are also expected to get more expensive in January. Almost half of all adults are worried that they won't have money for health costs in the coming year. This is the "affordability" issue discussed above. For example, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) said he heard from a constituent who is paying $800/mo for a couple and three children. The insurance company just told the constituent that absent the subsidies, his premium would rise to $1,600/mo.

The danger for Republicans is that if both bills fail and the subsidies indeed vanish, Donald Trump will get the blame, no matter how much he fulminates. He promised to lower prices during his campaign and Democrats will hammer him on grocery prices, housing prices, and health care prices next year. In the unlikely event that Crapo-Cassidy passes, people will still blame Trump once they find out how little the bill actually does and how few people are eligible for it.

There are a couple of other Republican plans being kicked around, but none of them continue the ACA subsidies. None of the others have a chance of passing, either.

Crapo-Cassidy was likely inspired by the RyanCare plan pushed by former House speaker Paul Ryan (R). In RyanCare, insurance companies could refuse to insure sick people. Since they would only have healthy people in their pool, they could lower premiums. This would be a win for something like 80% of the population, the same as for healthy people buying junk insurance and getting to keep the $1,000 or $1,500, and have a low premium. In RyanCare, the estimated 20% of the population who are uninsurable would go into a government pool where health care costs would be paid by an annual appropriation from Congress. That would cap the government's cost. It also means that if the appropriation ran out in August, no bills submitted in Sept.-Dec. would be paid. Members would be instructed to get sick early in the year, before the money ran out. In both cases, RyanCare and Crapo-Cassidy, young healthy people would be winners and old sick people would be losers. Ryan figured that if 80% of the voters pulled the lever for the GOP and 20% were hopping mad and voted Democratic, he could live with that.

If both bills fail today, then what? One possibility is that Republicans do nothing and there is a lot of stove touching. Republicans really don't want that, but they also don't want to extend the ACA subsidies. What will they do? Play "Kick the can past the midterms?" Wouldn't be the first time. The one thing that is certain is that voters who are wildly unhappy about their health care (and other) costs do not generally vote for "more of the same, please!" And everyone knows which party has the trifecta right now. (V)

Trump Wants to Bail Out the Farmers He Hurt Badly

Donald Trump's tariffs on China got a reaction from China: It greatly cut down on the number of soybeans it buys from U.S. farmers. This inflicted great pain on U.S. soybean farmers who normally sell their crop to China. Trump decided to bail them out from his own policies by giving them $12 billion as a bailout (despite his history of opposing bailouts, unless those bailouts are for casinos with 'Trump' in the name). He said he will get the money from the tariffs. Of course, if the Supreme Court kills the tariffs, Congress will have to cough up the money, and Democrats will surely demand something in return for bailing out Trump's supporters. Last year, China bought about $12 billion worth of soybeans from U.S. farmers.

This is not the first time Trump bailed out farmers hurt by his policies. During Trump v1.0, he gave $28 billion in free money to farmers hurt by his policies.

Whether this bailout is legal is very doubtful. The money from tariffs does not go into a presidential slush fund to be used at the president's discretion. It goes into the U.S. Treasury and the Constitution makes it clear that money in the treasury cannot be taken out except by congressional appropriation. However, it is hard to see who might have standing to sue. (V)

TACO Time

Barack Obama knew that China is not America's friend. Joe Biden knew that China is not America's friend. Every Republican in the Senate and House knows China is not America's friend. So what is Donald Trump doing? Strengthening China's industry and military so it can be used against the U.S. Specifically, he is allowing NVIDIA to sell its most advanced AI chips to China. After all, the U.S. probably has a lead in AI, so it is only fair that we help China catch up, right? If a Democratic president had agreed to this, House Republicans would be falling all over each other to be the first to submit the motion to impeach that president. Oh, and Trump is also allowing China to buy advanced chips it cannot make itself from Intel and AMD. Joe Biden restricted the sale of advanced chips to China, and there was bipartisan support for that.

NVIDIA is happy to have the deal. After all, its job is to make money, not to worry about national security. That is Trump's job. The details of the deal are not public, but but Trump has stated that the United States government will receive a 25% cut of Nvidia's chip sales to China. So much for free trade, which Republicans used to care about. (V)

Fed Cuts Rates

Donald Trump loves low interest rates, as they are good for the real estate business. Yesterday, the Fed cut interest rates by a quarter of a point and suggested another quarter-point cut is likely before the end of next year. This should make Trump happy.

However, interest rate cuts often rev up inflation. Given how much voters are complaining about affordability, these cuts could backfire on Trump by raising prices. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell held a news conference yesterday and said: "We are well positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves from here."

The new benchmark rate is in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Lower interest rates affect different people differently. People with variable mortgages feel lower rates quickly when their monthly payment drops. People with a lot of credit card debt also get a break when rates go down. But seniors who have a lot of money in savings accounts and depend on the interest to live on definitely do not like rate cuts.

Generally, low interest rates help the stock market because if savings accounts don't pay much, stocks look like a better deal. Indeed, the Dow Jones was up 1.05% yesterday to a near record of 48,058. Donald Trump tends to use the stock market as a measure of how good he is doing. People with a lot of their assets in the market may agree, but a large fraction of the population owns no stocks, directly or indirectly, and thus does not profit from a market surge. (V)

Newsom's Presidential Campaign Is Rolling Along Nicely

In case you didn't notice, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) would very much like to be president. He has been in Donald Trump's face constantly, and singlehandedly negated Trump's plan to gain five House seats by getting Texas to draw a new map. While doing this, he has been in the news on a regular basis, which is exactly what all presidential candidates need to do. And Newsom has been very successful at it.

In particular, the Governor has acquired more than 100,000 new donors to his campaign war chest—that is, people who have never previously contributed to him. The money aside, 100,000 e-mail addresses of Democratic donors is worth its weight in bitcoin. And over half the donors live outside California, which says something about his presidential prospects.

On the day Newsom officially announces his run, which could be as early as Nov. 4, 2026, all these 100,000 donors will get the first of many, many, many e-mails, reminding the donors of how much he hates Trump and asking for campaign donations. If everybody gives $10, that is $1 million on day 1, a fine start.

Newsom loves small donors, but he likes big ones, as well. Specifically, he has close ties to Hollywood. Last year he rammed through a film and television tax incentive program worth $750 million, even in the face of a state budget shortfall. Newsom is sure to remind the movers and shakers in Hollywood of this when his campaign begins.

There are certainly Democrats who want Newsom as their presidential nominee in 2028, but there are also Republicans who want this. They see him as the weakest candidate in the general election. They believe Newsom is much too woke for independents and normie Republicans. They are more worried about people like Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY), who comes across as a nonthreatening decent person who could win some red states in the South (as did Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton). Or Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), a Latino and Marine Corps combat veteran who comes from a key swing state next door to another swing state (Nevada). (V)

Spanberger Is Lukewarm on Redistricting

Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) campaigned as a moderate and doesn't want to blow that image by jumping into the gerrymandering wars headfirst. She signaled support for the plan to redraw Virginia's congressional map in January, but has stopped short of enthusiastically supporting it. She said that she won VA-01 (R+3) and VA-02 (EVEN) in November and Democrats could probably flip those Republican-held seats even without a new map. But if Democrats also have their sights on VA-06 (R+6), that would require some assistance from the cartographers.

Rather than focusing on mapmaking, she has mostly talked about affordability, improving the schools, and getting basic governance done. Of course, what she says in public and what she tells the state legislators could be different. She would not be the first politician whose public image is at odds with their backroom sausage-making. In any event, if the legislators are hell-bent on flipping two, maybe three House seats, Spanberger can just stay above the fray and have it both ways. The legislators change the map and she can talk about education, health care and getting prices down, without getting in the legislators' way. (V)

Older Voters Will Have Disproportionate Influence on the Senate

Two of the most closely watched Senate races are in Maine and North Carolina. Maine has the oldest electorate in the country, so seniors will have a big voice in determining control of the Senate. And Maine's voters are not only older, they are also whiter and better educated than the voters in many other states. This is a bloc that has moved from being Republican to being largely Democratic. It is also a bloc that tends to turn out in large numbers in midterms.

Another state with a large bloc of retirees is North Carolina. Twenty percent of NC-01, along the coast, is 65 or older. In NC-11, in the Blue Ridge Mountains, a quarter of the population is 65 or over. Like Maine, it has a very hot Senate race.

The large numbers of seniors in these states is affecting the races there. Issues like Social Security, health care, and even child care are important. The latter is important for retirees whose children work and want them to take care of their own children, the retirees' grandchildren, especially if there are no other options. For some grandparents, taking care of their grandchildren 1 or 2 days a week is fine, but 5 days a week is too much. They may be very sensitive to plans relating to child care.

In Maine, as well as western North Carolina, the closure of rural hospitals and the deep cuts in Medicaid are very big deals. Democrats are going to hammer on this over and over and Republicans are going to be forced to take ownership of it, especially incumbents who voted for the BBB. (V)

Dan Goldman Has Another Opponent

Former NYC comptroller Brad Lander has launched a primary campaign against Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NY). This is not Bernie vs. Hillary part 842. Lander can play the part of Bernie, but Goldman is no Hillary. He is a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. He was also the lead counsel in Donald Trump's first impeachment. He can say: "Sure, you hate Trump, but you didn't do anything about it. I actively worked on getting him impeached and tried to get him convicted." For the upscale, well-educated Democrats in his district, that is going to count for a lot.

As soon as Lander got in, another leftist challenger, Alexa Avilés, dropped out. Lander will probably clear the field. Still, it will be an uphill climb for him. Goldman is not only quite progressive himself, as proven by his actions, his words, and how much he hates Trump, he is also the eighth wealthiest member of Congress. If he needs another $1 million for ads or GOTV, he knows who to talk to (Hint: The guy in the mirror). Both Goldman and Lander are Jewish, but Goldman has supported Israel while Lander has criticized it. We suspect that most Jewish voters in the district will go for the guy who is friendly to Israel, not the one who is critical of it. On most other issues, there is not likely to be a lot of daylight between the two, making Israel potentially a key issue. Also, Goldman is an incumbent and voters generally don't kick out incumbents unless there is something wrong with them. Goldman is a pretty good fit for the district. No matter who wins the primary, the seat is safe for the Democrats, as the district is D+32. (V)

Democrats Have Noticed: Hey, the States Also Have Legislatures

Republicans are notoriously good and Democrats are notoriously bad at paying attention to state legislative races, even though control of a state is hugely important. If the Democrats have the trifecta in a state, they can get things done and help repair the Democrats' badly tarnished brand.

The DLCC (Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee) is aiming to win back 650 of the 800 legislative seats Democrats have lost in the past 15 years. In what could be a blue wave election, that might be doable. The Democrats are well aware, for example, that they picked up a dozen seats in the Virginia House of Delegates in November on the coattails of Abigail Spanberger. They've also noticed that the party has been winning in red districts, including in Georgia on Tuesday.

The president of the DLCC, Heather Williams, is hoping to raise and spend $50 million for state legislative seats. She hopes to flip chambers in Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and reduce Republican majorities in Kansas, Missouri, and Ohio. Of course, this goal will only be plausible if Williams can convince Democratic donors that not all their money should go to the North Carolina Senate race.

In case anyone wondered if control of state legislatures matters, they only have to look at the recent spate of new maps. Other than California, mid-decade redistricting has only happened in states where the Republicans control the legislature. If the Democrats can flip some chambers, further shenanigans will become impossible. It could happen. The minority leader of the Wisconsin state Senate, Dianne Hesselbein (D), said: "I think there are a lot of people in the state of Wisconsin that showed up for Donald Trump that now have buyer's remorse." That could be true in other states as well. (V)

Judge Will Release Ghislaine Maxwell Documents

Now that there is a law requiring the government to release the Epstein files, some judges are taking their cues from it. In New York, U.S. District Court Judge Paul Engelmayer has decided to unseal material in the case of Ghislaine Maxwell, who is now living at a Club Fed in Texas.

Normally, grand jury transcripts are secret, but Engelmayer determined that the new law took priority over the usual secrecy. He will make sure that the victims are protected, however.

No one other than the judge, the grand jury members, the prosecutors, and Maxwell knows what is in the transcripts. They could be explosive or merely state that Maxwell procured a lot of young girls for Jeffrey Epstein to victimize. A judge in Florida recently made a similar decision about Maxwell transcripts there. Bit by bit, some information is going to be coming out. (V)

Twelve Days of Christmas... Games, Part V: Shakespeare Sings His Hits

For today's entry, we've taken inspiration from a well-known (but somewhat old) Internet meme. We took the first couple of lines from a dozen songs associated with this time of year—some of them Christmas songs, some not; some of them "classic" songs, some contemporary—and translated them into Elizabethan English. The puzzle is to figure out what song was the basis for each translation. For example, if we gave you this:

I truly cannot tarry; Sweet, 'tis bitter cold without.
I must needs take my leave; Sweet, 'tis bitter cold without.

You would maybe recognize that as an Elizabethanization of this:

I really can't stay; Baby, it's cold outside
I've got to go away; Baby, it's cold outside

And so, the correct answer would be "Baby, It's Cold Outside."

All we need is the song title, not the artist (especially since many of these were recorded by multiple artists). And today, Google is fair game if you need to look up the meaning of an archaic word.

And now, let us hence:

1. O, the winds without are dreadful,
Yet the fire within maketh me joyous.

2. Tolling tintinnabulum, tolling tintinnabulum—Ah! The rhythm of tolling tintinnabulum!
The tintinnabulum doth swing and—Yea!—also dost ring

3. "Come!", they didst proclaim, pa rum pum pum pum
A newly wrought monarch to behold, pa rum pum pum pum

4. Santa, thou sweet babe, prithee slip a furred mantle 'neath the tree for me;
I have been a most virtuous maid.

5. Still night, hallow'd night,
All is hush'd, all is aglow.

6. Cover thy pate—Lo! Chanukah approacheth,
Such mirth and excit'ment-ukah, to make merry for Chanukah.

7. Thou art a churlish wight—verily, a knave art thou
Thou art as huggable as a prickly plant, as winsome as a serpent of the watery deep

8. So this be Yuletide, and what hast thou wrought?
Another year hath ended, and a new one hath but begun.

9. Old Hiems, with his black and icy crown, was a blithe and merry spirit,
With a pipe of maize, and a proboscis of button wrought, and twain eyes of ember.

10. The snow doth gleam as white upon the mountain's height,
As all who pass on foot go untrack'd

11. My heart longeth for a Yuletide clad in white,
E'en as those I knew in days of yore.

12. 'Twas the four and twentieth of December upon Hollis Avenue after night's fall,
When I espied a gentleman reclining with his hound in the village green.

You can submit your answers here! (Z)


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