On the Hill: Don't Give in... Without a Fight?

Today is the day the Senate will vote on the so-called "continuing resolution" (CR), deciding either to fund the government for the rest of the fiscal year, or else to shut it down. We put that phrase in quotations because it's being used in a dishonest manner (and deliberately so). The CR most certainly does not "continue" the current budget for the next 6 months; it makes some fairly significant changes in funding while also ceding even more power to Elon Musk and Donald Trump.

With the CR having already passed the House, and the Republicans having 53 votes in the Senate (well, 52, since Rand Paul, R-KY, is a "no"), the ball is in the Senate Democrats' court. A filibuster is possible here, if 42 Democrats decide that is what they would like to do. For most of the day on Wednesday, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) was signaling that a filibuster was indeed the plan. Then, after a heated all-caucus meeting on Thursday, with Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) leading the anti-filibuster forces, Schumer indicated that a filibuster is probably not happening. Certainly, the Minority Leader is not whipping votes for a filibuster, nor will he himself vote with the pro-filibuster forces. This, along with various other clues available, tell us that Schumer, Gillibrand, John Fetterman (D-PA), Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and John Hickenlooper (D-CO) are all votes for cloture. Those five, plus the 52 non-Paul Republicans, would mean that only three more Democratic or independent votes for cloture would be needed in order for a potential filibuster to be overcome.

Schumer and the other Democrats have made clear that the primary reason for their decision, as unpleasant as they find it, is that they believe that if the government is shut down, it will enable the Co-Presidents to significantly increase the amount of harm they will do. From the floor of the Senate yesterday, the Minority Leader said that the CR is bad, but a shutdown would be "much, much worse." There are counter-arguments here, like "The Democrats should be using their only real opportunity to push back against Musk, regardless of the consequences" or "Keeping the government open isn't exactly stopping Musk and Trump from wreaking any and all havoc they wish to wreak" or "Non-Trumpers really need a demonstration right now that someone is standing up for them." One could very reasonably say that Schumer & Co. should be pursuing Bad Option B, instead of (apparently) going with Bad Option A.

It is not for us to say which position is the right one. What we can say, however, is that Senate Democrats knew they had only bad choices. The back-and-forth they went through, and the public hand-wringing they did, illustrates that. So, the folks who are writing "Senate Democrats just don't get it" or "Senate Democrats have no spines"—and there are many of them—are, in our view, engaging in lazy, knee-jerk analysis. No amount of insight or courage was magically going to turn Bad Option A or Bad Option B into Good Option A.

Still, one of the prices of choosing a bad option, even if bad options are all you've got, is that people are going to be angry. The lefties in the Democratic Party are not happy, to say the least. Many House Democrats are also displeased, as they held together (and many of them, in purple districts, stuck their necks out in order to stick with the team).

Also upset are the residents of Washington, DC. In a delightful quirk of the American system, DC raises most of its own funding (about 80%), but its budget has to be approved by Congress. Normally in budget bills, even in CRs, there is a passage that says, "Whatever budget the DC council approved is acceptable." This time, that's not there, presumably because Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and his colleagues don't much care if they hurt a group of people who are overwhelmingly Black and Democratic. So, it appears that the District will have to revert to its previous budget, which was the last one to be approved by Congress. If so, that means something like $1.1 billion in spending cuts. Note that this will not actually save any money for the federal government, since the money was collected by the D.C. government from D.C. residents. Instead, the District would have to treat the money as surplus, and add it to its reserves.

Given that the crackdown on D.C. serves no purpose, it's very difficult to avoid the conclusion that being cruel and punitive is the point—in particular, visiting some payback for "Black Lives Matter Plaza." For now, this will probably make Trump and many other Republicans feel very good. However, they are also giving both the Democrats and the residents of the District an(other) excellent argument for why D.C. should be given statehood. That isn't going to matter right now, or anytime in the immediate future, but maybe on some future, filibuster-free day...

We will learn sometime today if the CR passes, as is likely. The Democrats' next chance to flex their muscles will come in a few months, when the debt ceiling needs to be raised. Given that they backed down on shutting down the government, it pretty clearly sends the message they won't be willing to default on the debt. Indeed, "the Democrats need to lay the groundwork for the next fight" is another excellent argument for a filibuster right now. Assuming Senate Democrats do fold today, their very next move should be to book appearances on the weekend news programs, and any other outlet possible, to communicate the message: "We will not, under any circumstances, vote to raise the debt ceiling without also imposing specific limits on the powers of Elon Musk and DOGE." The Democrats' current position was weakened by the fact that they did not get out ahead of the messaging, and waited until it was too late. But if they spend the next 2-3 months committing to a very firm, no-compromises position on the debt ceiling and Musk, they will be in a much stronger position when their next opportunity arrives. (Z)

Judges to Trump: The Evidence Before the Court Is Incontrovertible

At the moment, the legislature isn't doing very much (or anything, really) to push back against the actions of Elon Musk and his Muskovites. The judiciary is taking up the task, however.

Yesterday, Co-Presidents Musk and Donald Trump came out on the short end of two very similar decisions from two different judges on two different coasts. The first ruling came from Judge William Alsup, of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California. The second ruling came from Judge James K. Bredar, of the U.S. District Court for the District of Maryland. Both rulings said that the Trump administration cannot fire federal employees willy-nilly, just 'cause, and that the affected employees must be reinstated immediately.

Alsup, for his part, was clearly aggravated by the administration's actions. Charles Ezell, acting director of the Office of Personnel Management, was ordered to be present in the Judge's court yesterday, and did not bother to show. Alsup did not sanction him, but did have his deposition removed from the case, and angrily ordered a different Trumper to appear in Ezell's place. The Judge also described the terminations as "a sham," and accused the Department of Justice of lying in its filings. Bredar was a little less outspoken, but his ruling is actually broader, as it applies to 18 federal departments, as opposed to six for Alsup. Both judges, using very similar language, found that using "performance" as a pretext for the firings was a load of bull cookies, and that the firings appeared to be non-valid.

This, of course, is nowhere near the end of the story. The two judges' orders are just injunctions until they can properly adjudicate the cases, with Alsup's injunction having no set expiration date, and Bredar's set to expire in 14 days (though it could be extended). Eventually, even if they find against the administration, there will be appeals, of course.

That said, Trump and Musk aren't just losing here, they are losing bigly. Even in preliminary rulings (of which there have now been two from each of these judges), the findings are 100% for the plaintiffs, with a significant dollop of Trump-critical commentary thrown in. Not only that, but the judges are using the same language/reasoning (and so too have one or two other judges, like Beryl Howell, who have considered related cases). All of this says to us that the law is very clear here, and that the administration has no leg to stand on. What Trump and Musk have to hope for, at this point, is that the Supreme Court is somehow eager to gut the Pendleton Civil Service Reform Act of 1883. (Z)

Reps. Raul Grijalva, Sylvester Turner Have Passed Away

Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-AZ), one of the mainstays of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, passed away yesterday due to complications from the treatment he was receiving for cancer. He was 77, and was in the midst of his 12th term in the House.

Grijalva was the son of a bracero, and had a résumé that has "progressive" written all over it. He started his career as a community organizer, then became involved in education, and then was a longtime member of the Pima County Board of Supervisors before running for Congress. He was particularly focused on the environment and climate change, explaining that it's "for the babies." In view of this, he served on, and eventually rose to leadership of, the House Natural Resources Committee, which he chaired for 4 years, from 2015-19.

Grijalva is actually the second House Democrat to pass away this month. We missed this story, because of all the hullaballoo surrounding Donald Trump's non-SOTU, but the day after the speech, Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-TX) died suddenly. He was probably also a cancer victim, as he had been treated for bone cancer, but no official cause of death seems to have been announced.

Whereas Grijalva was a long-serving member of Congress, Turner just got there, having been elected to his first term last November as the replacement for Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D), who herself died suddenly last year. His 61-day term is the 14th-shortest in the history of Congress, though the third-shortest among those ended by death. Before his time in Congress, Turner served for 27 years as a Texas state Representative and then 8 years as mayor of Houston. He also worked as a lawyer, and was politically pretty progressive, particularly on immigration and education issues. Not as progressive as Grijalva, mind you, but not too far away, either.

The two passings mean that, for the moment, the Republicans have a 218-213 majority in the House, giving Mike Johnson some extra room to maneuver. Once the two empty seats in Florida are filled, it will almost certainly be 220-213. Then, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) will formally resign, and it will be 219-213. This is not likely to matter all that much, however, since the Republicans are barely able to pass budget bills, even up against a deadline. Passing anything else, especially without deadline pressure, will be harder. Or, at least, it was the last time the Republicans had the trifecta.

Grijalva's district (AZ-07) is D+15 and Turner's (TX-18) is D+23. So, once replacements are elected, the two men are all but certain to be replaced by Democrats. However, Arizona state law requires special elections to be announced on a rapid timeline, and then held on a slow timeline. And Texas state law allows special elections to be announced on a slow timeline, and then requires them to be held on a fairly rapid timeline. The upshot is that, in both cases, replacements are not likely to be seated until sometime this summer. (Z)

Captain Canuck: I Am Just a New Boy, Stranger in This Town

We will have some more reader thoughts on the new Canadian PM next week, but for now, we have a very interesting British perspective from reader S.D. in York, England, UK and we wanted to share it:

Some British thoughts on the new Canadian Prime Minister.

Mark Carney is (currently) British, as well as Canadian. But it wasn't always a given. Of course, we all know he served as Governor of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020, making history as the first non-British citizen to hold the role since the Bank was founded in 1694. But his path to U.K. citizenship was... let's just say, not exactly rushed.

In 2018, after much speculation, Carney finally committed to becoming British. This came after years of tabloid chatter, with a general feeling that he was dragging his feet. Given his high-profile role, many expected him to apply much sooner. But after the 2016 Brexit referendum, it became clear that Carney would be staying in his post beyond his initial 5-year term—so, perhaps, taking the citizenship plunge made more sense at that point.

Tenure and Departure

The reason Carney served beyond his initial 5-year term was that economic and political uncertainty from Brexit led the government to extend his tenure twice, first to 2019, then again to 2020. By the time he finally stepped down in March 2020, he'd outlasted multiple Prime Ministers. His successor, Andrew Bailey, took over just as the COVID-19 pandemic was beginning to shake the global economy. So, he was not a central part of the response to that economic crisis.

How the Brits See His Role in the U.K. Economy

Carney's time at the Bank of England saw some of the most defining economic moments in recent U.K. history. His job wasn't just about keeping inflation in check; he also had to navigate political turbulence and global financial shocks. Here are the three biggest economic moments under his watch:

• Post-Financial Crisis Recovery: Carney took the reins in 2013, when the U.K. was still in post-2008/09 crash recovery mode. His policies aimed at maintaining financial stability and encouraging economic growth.
  
  
• Brexit (2016): The U.K.'s vote to leave the E.U. sent shockwaves through the British economy. Carney and the Bank of England stepped in with emergency measures to prevent financial instability, but his warnings about Brexit's risks earned him sharp criticism from Leave supporters.
  
  
• COVID-19 Pandemic (2020): Just as Carney was exiting, the pandemic arrived. The Bank of England quickly rolled out emergency support for the economy, some of which had been put in place under his leadership.

Public and Political Perceptions: Divisive, But Respected

Carney's time in office wasn't without controversy. His decisions were often scrutinized, and while some saw him as a stabilizing force, others viewed him as too involved in political matters.

• Politicians: Some praised his steady leadership, but pro-Brexit politicians weren't thrilled with his warnings about economic fallout. His forecasts of potential economic slowdowns due to Brexit were labeled as "Project Fear" by critics. And he was "The High Priest of Project Fear."
  
  
• Public Opinion: The general public was split. Some saw him as a competent technocrat who kept things running smoothly. Others felt his policies leaned too heavily in favor of banks and financial institutions rather than everyday Britons.

What Legacy Did Carney Leave Behind?

Carney's impact on the U.K. economy and financial system goes beyond his term as Governor. His key contributions include:

• Financial Stability: He played a major role in strengthening the U.K.'s financial system in the post-2008/09 crisis era and improving regulatory frameworks.
  
  
• Climate Change Advocacy: Carney pushed the financial world to take climate risks seriously, helping make the Bank of England a leader in sustainable finance.
  
  
• Global Presence: Even after leaving the Bank of England, he remained a prominent voice in economic and political discussions, including appearing frequently in U.K. media during the 2024 U.S. election season.

Final Take?

Love him or loathe him, Mark Carney was one of the most influential figures in the U.K. economy over the last two decades. Whether you see him as a steady hand or a political meddler, his tenure at the Bank of England was anything but forgettable.

P.S.: Carney was also of Irish nationality but just surrendered that in the last week. By the time this is read, he might not be British.

Thanks, S.D.! (Z)

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Have I Been Guilty All This Time?

We gave two hints for last week's headline theme. The first was: "[W]hile the artist did not actually end up making a headline, we got the idea for the theme after listening to the song 'Life in Mono.'" And the second was: "We will tell you that there are actually a few albums with the title Chastity. The one we intended is by Cher. There are also several albums with the title Meltdown. The one we intended is by Pitbull."

And now, the answer, courtesy of reader J.N. in Zionsville, IN:

This week's theme is albums by mono-named artists:

• Trumponomics, Part I: Meltdown (Pitbull)
• Trumponomics, Part II: The Shady Project (Eminem)
• State of the Union: Controversy (Prince)
• (Il)Legal News: Burning Barns (Beck)
• Media News: And Winter Came... (Enya)
• I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Chastity (Cher)
• This Week in Schadenfreude: Picking Up the Pieces (Jewel)
• This Week in Freudenfreude: Ray of Light (Madonna)

We accepted Poco for "Picking Up the Pieces" even though Poco is a band and not an individual, and also the name of the Poco album is actually "Pickin' Up the Pieces." As to today's headline, "All This Time" is an album by the mononymous Sting.

Here are the first 50 readers to get it right:

L.D. in Bedford, MA M.W. in Altea, Spain M.B. in Albany, NY G.W. in Avon, CT M.L. in Iowa City, IA J.N. in Zionsville S.K. in Ardmore, PA K.M. in Ypsilanti, MI M.M. in Dunellen, NJ G.K. in Blue Island, IL R.M. in Concord, NH E.S. in Providence, RI J.R. in Austin, TX E.K. in Arlington, MA M.S. in Canton, NY J.P. in Mountain House, CA S.L. in St. Louis, MO D.B. in Pittsboro, NC M.K. in Larnaca, Cyprus J.R. in San Antonio, TX P.W. in Tulalip, WA T.T. in Conway, AR D.B. in Farmville, VA S.J.S. in Mount Holly, NJ R.R. in Pasadena, CA

J.D. in Charlotte, NC S.B. in Los Altos Hills, CA M.C. in Newton, MA A.C. in Kingston, MA R.S. in Milan, OH D.S. in Layton, UT D.C. in Teaneck, NJ J.M. in Union Beach, NJ A.R. in Los Angeles, CA A.A. in South Orange, NJ J.E. in San Jose, CA M.M. in Newbury Park, CA I.G. in Chicago, IL Z.K. in Albany, NY M.T. in Wheat Ridge, CO L.M. in London, England, UK F.B. in Los Angeles, CA M.V. in Syracuse, NY J.J. in Las Vegas, NV J.M. in Compton, CA K.R. in Miami, FL L.R. in Paris, France G.G. in Boston, MA E.D. in Nashville, TN J.C. in Trenton, NJ

The 50th correct response was received Monday at 11:57 a.m. PT

As to this week's theme, it is also in the category of music, and relies on multiple words in each headline. However, the obituary item is not part of the puzzle, as we do not make a game out of people dying. For a hint, we'll say that there was supposed to be an additional item today, and we just ran out of time to write it. And, as chance would have it, it was the headline that actually inspired the whole theme. Had that item run today, the headline would have been: "Today's Crazypants Roundup: We Don't Need No Education." Look for that item next week.

If you have a guess, send it to comments@electoral-vote.com, with subject line "March 14 Headlines." (Z)

This Week in Schadenfreude: I've Got Wild Staring Eyes

There are more than a few obstacles to a potential J.D. Vance presidency, and among those is that he puts off a vibe that we would describe as... creepy. Maybe that's not fatal; Richard Nixon put out a similar vibe, and we know what happened with him. In any event, in the last couple of weeks, since the performance with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, the Internet has absolutely exploded with memes meant to emphasize Vance's weirdness. Some are meant to be funny, but the predominant aesthetic is actually "surreal." We thought we'd share 10 of them:

1. Say Pwease: Did we mention that many of the memes also infantilize Vance?
   
   
   
   
2. The Lollipop Guild: It's not entirely clear from this specimen, but this one is inspired by The Wizard of Oz.
   
   
   
   
3. The Candy Man Can: And this one, of course, is inspired by Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.
   
   
   
   
4. Big Giant Head: If you look closely, you can see that someone has actually put together a meme generator that allows users to easily make grotesque versions of Vance's head. This one looks very much like Little Face from Dick Tracy.
   
   
   
   
5. Here's the Story...: This cultural reference will presumably reach its expiration date in the not-too-distant future, since the show has been off the air for 50 years. But we're not there quite yet.
   
   
   
   
6. Animated, Part I: This one was created by Mike Winkelmann, who is a very prominent graphic artist, and who works under the name BEEPLE. It's actually animated; the couple shown walks forward, and Vance's smile slowly becomes more cherubic (or more menacing). You can see it here, but you have to have an Instagram account. It's really quite mesmerizing, and cutouts of just the curly-haired Vance are EVERYWHERE right now.
   
   
   
   
7. Animated, Part II: This one is also animated, and is also quite mesmerizing. It actually shows a 360-degree rotating Vance bust, which blinks. You can see it here; again, you have to have an Instagram account.
   
   
   
   
8. Better Dead than Red... Headed?: Not funny, but "Ginger Vance," as this one is titled, is definitely surreal.
   
   
   
   
9. The Real J.D.: This one circulated after the non-SOTU, of course.
   
   
   
   
10. The Dark Side: We had Dark Brandon, soon we'll have Dark Vance.
    
    
    
    
11. Vance Responds: The Vice President, for his part, has seen the memes and says he likes them and finds them funny. He posted this to eX-Twitter, in response (if you don't know the reference, it's Rick Dalton from Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood).
    
    

In addition to Vance's "ha, ha" response, some right-wing commenters have opined that: (1) these memes actually help Vance by making him relatable, or (2) that Vance benefits from the memery getting played out right now, such that it will be old hat and boring by the time he runs for president.

For our part, we don't believe any of this. We don't think Vance likes being mocked relentlessly on the Internet any more than Nixon liked being mocked on Laugh-In, despite claims to the contrary. We also don't think that memes that present him as strange, grotesque and childlike make him relatable. And we definitely don't think that Vance memery can ever be played out. Anyone who says that is unfamiliar with the many and varied notions that the world's meme creators manage to come up with, once they are suitably inspired. And Vance, after his shameful behavior with Zelenskyy, clearly inspires them. (Z)

This Week in Freudenfreude: Some Sunny Day

There was a time, perhaps as recently as 5 years ago, when the Republican Party was the only major political faction on the globe that embraced climate-change denial. Since then, this thinking has seeped into the platforms of other right-wing, populist, and right-wing populist parties and movements. For example, Javier Milei, the crazypants guy they've got running Argentina, is a climate-change denier.

Another (domestic) denier, in addition to Trump, is his fellow Florida Republican, Gov. Ron DeSantis. We honestly don't know what Trump really thinks about global warming; he is so able to delude himself that he really might believe it's a vast left-wing conspiracy. However, we doubt that DeSantis is an actual climate-change denier, he just has to pretend because of the political party he's a part of.

We mention DeSantis because his state is currently serving as a case study of a general trend: the political fight against climate change may be losing some ground right now, but economics are taking up the slack. Florida, of course, is known as the Sunshine State. And that's for real; it's not just clever marketing like "Greenland" (not all that green) or "Imperial Valley" (actually a desert). This being the case, quite a few Floridians have noticed that it's an ideal state for solar energy. As of this week, the state is now second in terms of large-scale, utility solar capacity (behind Texas, another state run by climate-change deniers). And Florida is first in terms of residential solar capacity. At the moment, the state is getting 8% of its power from solar, and the number is steadily growing.

There are a number of factors that are pushing Florida in this direction. First, of course, is all the sunlight. Second is all the big, adverse weather events. If you can't rely on the local utility to provide power after a disaster, it's nice to be able to generate your own. Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act, which has tax credits for people who buy solar panels, has also encouraged adoption. It also helps that power generation in Florida is largely under local control, such that the showboating governor and state legislature can't do much to interfere.

Indeed, DeSantis' true feelings are indicated by a pair of actions he's taken during his current term. Last year, he signed into law a bill that requires that any reference to climate change be deleted from all state policies. He described the move as "restoring sanity in our approach to energy and rejecting the agenda of the radical green zealots." You might say that's his public face. But back in 2022, when presented with a bill that would actually have undermined the expansion of solar energy in the state (as opposed to just giving the right-wing media some talking points), he quietly vetoed it. You might say that's his private face.

Anyhow, despite the resistance, the trend is toward a greener planet. We can only hope that it happens quickly enough to avoid disaster.

Have a good weekend, all! (Z)

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