A Sad Day for Kamala Harris, but She Did Her Duty

One of the unfortunate properties of being vice president (other than the bucket of liquid stuff), is that if you run for president and lose, you have to go through the humiliation of announcing your loss to the country on Jan. 6. Just ask Al Gore, Hubert Humphrey or Richard Nixon. OK, Humphrey and Nixon are dead, so Al Gore is the only person alive now who feels Kamala Harris' pain. What could have been, wasn't, and most likely won't be, as the Democrats haven't renominated a loser since 1956 (Adlai Stevenson). Harris took it in stride:

Unlike Donald Trump in 2020, Harris conceded defeat as soon as the AP had called enough states to get Trump to 270 EVs. In the past, that was taken for granted, but in 2020, Trump refused to concede even though multiple sources have said he knew he had lost. This time the count went off smoothly, as it is supposed to. Afterwards, Harris said: "I do believe very strongly that America's democracy is only as strong as our willingness to fight for it. Every single person, their willingness to fight for and respect the importance of our democracy. Otherwise, it is very fragile and it will not be able to withstand moments of crisis. And today, America's democracy stood."

Trump also had something to say yesterday. He plans to fire Colleen Shogan, head of the National Archives, the agency that wanted him to return all the documents he illegally held in his bathroom at Mar-a-Lago. Two models of statesmanship, we suppose. (V)

What Are Trump's Real Priorities?

To figure out what Donald Trump's real priorities are, Axios has gone over all his campaign speeches and counted how many times he mentioned each topic. Here is the list, if you want the whole story. Below is a table with the Top 10, along with how many times he mentioned each one.

Rank	Item	Mentions
1	Settle the Ukraine war	33
2	Close the border	32
3	Cut funding to schools that teach CRT or have a vaccine mandate	26
4	Begin deporting undocumented aliens	25
5	End the electric car mandate	22
6	Increase drilling and fracking for oil	17
7	Begin ending inflation and making life affordable	10
8	Terminate Joe Biden's "open border" policies	8
9	End Bidenomics and start MAGAnomics	8
10	End Green New Deal policies	6

Some of these are easier said than done. For starters, Trump can tell Volodymyr Zelenskyy that he is not going to get a single new bullet from the U.S., so he had better give Vladimir Putin what he wants. This will cause Zelenskyy to go beg the E.U. for weapons, especially offensive ones that can hurt Putin at home. Maybe he'll get them, maybe he won't, especially with France and Germany in turmoil now. But Trump can't settle the war on his own.

Trump could close the border if he really wants to and is willing to take the flak for it. He could simply order the Border Patrol to shoot to kill any person crossing the border illegally and leave the bodies there as a warning to others. The Supreme Court would probably uphold the principle that law enforcement officers who see a crime being committed may use force to prevent the crime from being committed. In the abstract, that may sound fine.

Since no schools teach CRT, no schools will lose funding over it. Many schools have vaccine mandates and most of the parents want that. If Trump really follows through on that and schools get rid of their vaccine mandates, make a note on your calendar for Nov. 3, 2026, reading "Watch out for blue wave today." And on and on. Many of the items require Congress to pass legislation, and other than budgetary legislation, very little of this will get through the Senate.

These and the other items fall into three buckets. First is immigration. Stephen Miller and Tom Homan will certainly get to work rounding up some immigrants for a photo-op that Trump can brag about. How much more he gets done depends on how much the Democrats are willing to go along and what price they demand in return. But maybe all Trump wants is a couple of photo-ops.

Second is red meat for the MAGA faithful. Some things, like bans on DEI within the government and its contractors, are doable with XOs. Banning trans women from women's sports is not a budget item and would require legislation. Senate Democrats are never going to go along with that unless they get something enormous in return, like a path to citizenship for Dreamers, which the Republicans would never agree to.

Third is giving big business goodies in the form of tax cuts, reduced regulation, and protection for American companies from foreign competition. Democrats might actually go along with some of this, although it will cause a major battle internally.

And things will come up that are not on Trump's agenda, like hitting the debt ceiling. A default would be horrendous, but the Democrats might be willing to risk it so that Trump would be blamed for the consequences. That would be easy to defend, as in: "The people voted for Trump and Republicans, so they are in charge and we are not going to bail them out. The job of the opposition is to oppose." (V)

What Is MAGAnomics?

One of the items high on Trump's to-do list is replace Bidenomics with MAGAnomics. What is that, actually? Trump doesn't understand much about macroeconomics, but he does know that personnel is policy. Trump has picked Stephen Miran to be chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, and we know what Miran wants because he has published papers saying exactly what he wants. Now he will be in a position to implement his ideas. Here is a brief rundown of them.

First, Miran is clearly focused on supply-side economics, not demand-side economics. He wants policies that will cause companies to invest in new factories. These include permitting reform so spotted owls cannot block factories, eliminating (environmental) regulations that hamper development, tariffs to protect weak industries, subsidies to favored companies, etc.

Second, he is hostile to electric cars and regulations helping labor, as well as other regulations that big business does not like—for example, OSHA rules that protect the health and safety of workers. He sees them as impediments to domestic manufacturing. We're not so sure about the opposition to electric cars, though, until we have heard it from the mouth of Co-President-elect Musk.

Third, there is a range of specific rules he doesn't like, many of them coming from the EPA. He also opposes the Davis-Bacon Act, which requires that government contractors pay the prevailing wage in the area of the project. He also opposes provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act that he sees as blue meat and detracting from the program. For example, chip manufacturers are required to provide daycare for their employees. He doesn't see how mandating daycare improves chip efficiency. If Intel wants to provide free daycare to attract more workers, that should be its own business decision, not a government mandate whose (subtle) purpose is to help women (who might take jobs from working-class men).

Again, many of the things Miran wants require Congress to enact laws, repeal laws, or modify laws. When John Thune asks Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to repeal the requirement that chip manufacturers provide daycare, Schumer is likely to say: "What do I get in return for this?" "Making Trump happy" will not be a good answer. (V)

Trump Seeks a Delay in His Sentencing

Donald Trump was scheduled to be sentenced on Friday in the New York fraudulent bookkeeping case resulting from his attempts to hide his payoff to Stormy Daniels. Sunday, he filed to delay the sentencing and Monday the filing was revealed. This action is consistent with Trump's modus operandi. He doesn't try to win cases. He just tries to delay them forever so they never reach a conclusion.

Judge Juan Merchan has indicated that he doesn't plan to put Trump in prison and probably not even fine him. He seems to be leaning toward an unconditional discharge, which would end the case with no punishment but Trump would remain in the books forever as a convicted felon.

Trump is trying to get out of this situation by arguing that the Supreme Court has granted presidents immunity for actions taken relating to their work as president. It is far-fetched to believe that falsifying business records relating to paying off a porn star is a constitutional duty of the president, but with this Supreme Court, you never know. Trump's real goal is to delay the sentencing until after Jan. 20 at noon, and then argue that sitting presidents can't be sentenced. Once again, Trump lucked out. Merchan could have sentenced him to a modest fine long ago and the appeals courts would most likely have upheld that. After all, a jury did convict Trump on 34 counts. That means something. (V)

Biden Bans Offshore Drilling, Setting Up a Supreme Court Fight

Yesterday Joe Biden banned oil and gas drilling up and down the East Coast, the West Coast and the Gulf Coast. Pick an American Coast, and the odds are that oil and gas drilling is now banned there. This will protect 625 million acres (977,000 square miles) of ocean from drilling and pollution. At his announcement, Biden said: "We do not need to choose between protecting the environment and growing our economy, or between keeping our ocean healthy, our coastlines resilient, and the food they produce secure and keeping energy prices low. Those are false choices."

Donald Trump campaigned on "Drill, baby, drill," so what happens next? It should be interesting. Biden took this action under Sec. 12(a) of the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act. That law says his actions have no expiration date and prohibit all future leasing in the covered areas. But can Trump just undo the ban?

According to the law, the president's action is permanent. It is not like an XO that the next president can reverse. Congress could try to change the law, but the Senate Democrats would filibuster that. So will Trump just accept defeat on this? We doubt it. He will probably issue leases to drill in the forbidden areas and then wait to be sued. When the case gets to the Supreme Court, which is inevitable, Trump will argue that no president can take an action that binds a future president, only Congress can do that. The plaintiffs will argue that Congress specifically gave the president the power to make permanent decisions, thus binding future presidents, the same way a president can negotiate a treaty and after the Senate ratifies it, it binds future presidents.

There is one other X factor. Petroleum companies know that they are going the way of the dinosaur sooner or later (full circle, as it were, since the dinosaurs went the way of petroleum). They also know that Trump won't be in charge forever. Add these two things up, and they are increasingly reluctant to invest in expensive offshore drilling infrastructure that might, or might not, pay off. The first Trump administration actually had trouble selling the leases it wanted to sell, and that was without the looming hassle of a multi-year lawsuit. (V)

Judge Holds Giuliani in Contempt of Court

Federal Judge Lewis Liman has had enough of Rudy Giuliani's antics in court, stalling, and refusal to obey his orders, and yesterday formally declared Giuliani to be in contempt of court. He hasn't specified the punishment yet. Giuliani will be back in Liman's courtroom on Jan. 16 for a hearing that will determine whether his condo in Palm Beach, FL, is his actual residence, and thus protected from seizure by the Florida Homestead Act, or just another property he owns, and is not protected from seizure. Liman said Giuliani "willfully violated a clear and unambiguous order of this court" when he refused to hand over documents the judge had asked for. When a judge says that, it is not a good sign for the defendant.

For yesterday's hearing, Giuliani appeared on Zoom using an American flag background. The judge didn't fall for it and told him to replace it with a plain background. Giuliani also said he didn't produce the evidence the judge wanted because he is a defendant in so many criminal and civil cases. You know, with so many judges demanding so much stuff, it is hard to satisfy all of them. The judge wasn't buying any of it.

Giuliani has sort of complied a little bit, but not really. For example, he turned over the keys to his Manhattan condo and his Mercedes-Benz, but he hasn't turned over the ownership papers, so the two Georgia election workers he defamed cannot yet sell or auction them. He also had all of the condo's contents removed and stored at an undisclosed location, in violation of the judge's orders.

The lawyers for the two women are quite clever. To determine if Guiliani's residence is in Manhattan or Florida, they asked for a list of all the doctors he has used in the past 4 years. Guiliani is 80 and has probably seen at least one doctor for something in the past 4 years, if only for a checkup. If it turns out that all his doctors practice in New York, that is strong evidence that he lives in New York. Giuliani has refused to produce the list. The show will continue on Jan. 16. (V)

Kirsten Gillibrand Will Chair the DSCC in 2026

The Senate Democrats have elected Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) to run the DSCC this cycle. It is a tricky assignment and can either help her future or hurt it, depending on how it goes. The 2026 Senate election will be easier than the 2024 one, but not easy. There is only one Democrat in danger instead of three and there are two or three potential pickups, none of which will be easy. Gillibrand made it clear that she wanted the assignment. It was not foisted upon her. Also, she always has the idea of being the first woman president in the back of her mind, and a successful Senate cycle would give her credibility within the party. Together, the two New York senators will have a lot of power, as Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will be minority leader.

The job of the DSCC chair is twofold. First, she has to raise gobs of money, as Senate races are expensive. Second, for elections where there is no incumbent Democrat running, she has to recruit candidates. The NRSC did a decent job in 2024, finding now-Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-MT) and now-Sen. Dave McCormick (R-PA), even though neither one really lived in the state they won. Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) was easier, since he really is from Ohio. All of them won. Some of the other picks, such as Eric Hovde in Wisconsin and Sam Brown in Nevada, fell flat. Then there was Kari Lake in Arizona, but the NRSC most definitely did not pick her; it just couldn't stop her.

The race that will be keeping Gillibrand up at night is Georgia, where Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is up for reelection. He barely won in 2020 and had a couple of advantages then that he won't have in 2026. First, it was a presidential year with high turnout and, at least historically, high turnout has helped the Democrats. Second, now-Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) was also on the ballot in a special election against appointed senator Kelly Loeffler, which greatly increased turnout among Black voters. Now Ossoff is on his own and will need every penny Gillibrand can scrounge up. She knows this very well. If term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) jumps in, Ossoff will have a real battle on his hands. Gillibrand and Ossoff have to hope and pray that he doesn't. The good news for them is that it is not a sure thing that Kemp will jump in, as his real goal is the GOP nomination in 2028 and he might want to spend 2026 preparing for a presidential run.

The only other Democratic seats that could be a problem are Michigan and New Hampshire. Michigan is a swing state that Donald Trump won and Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) is up for reelection there. One thing working for him is that in 2024, the state's significant Arab-American population, which normally votes Democratic, voted for Donald Trump because they didn't like Joe Biden's Gaza policy. They are very likely to be even less enthusiastic about Trump's Gaza policies and may come home to the Democratic Party in 2026.

New Hampshire is a bluish swing state but Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) is well-liked there. She was elected governor in 1996, 1998, and 2000. She ran for the Senate in 2002 and lost to John E. Sununu (son of former governor John H. Sununu). In 2008, she again ran against Sununu and this time beat him handily. In 2014 she narrowly beat Scott Brown and in 2020 she trounced Corky Messner. That's 6-1 on statewide races. Her potential problem is that Sununu's brother, Chris Sununu, the former four-term governor, could run against her. That could be a real barnburner. If Sununu doesn't run (because he is also interested in running for president in 2028), she will win easily. The other Democrats running for reelection have it easy.

That's defense, now offense. There are potential pickups in Maine, represented by Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), and North Carolina, represented by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC). In both cases the Democrat is obvious, assuming that person jumps in. In Maine it is term-limited Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) and in North Carolina it is former governor Roy Cooper. However, Cooper also has presidential ambitions.

A third potential pickup is Kentucky, of all places. If Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) retires, Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) might jump in, although he also has presidential ambitions and sees himself as the new Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton—a moderate Democrat who can win in the South. McConnell will turn 85 a month after being sworn in if he runs and wins. He has had health issues, so most observers expect him to crawl off to the old turtles' home, leaving an opening for Beshear.

With only four or five competitive Senate races, and maybe fewer if the various governors skip 2026, Gillibrand won't need to raise as much money as in some cycles, but neither will the NRSC. It could be a relatively cheap year. Still, if the Democrats pick up a couple seats net, Gillibrand will get some of the credit, at least within the Senate leadership. That could come in handy in due course of time. (V)

Justin Trudeau Resigns as Leader of Canada's Liberal Party

Another one bites the dust. There is increasing instability in the world and democracies are having a tough time. The U.K. recently dumped Rishi Sunak, France and Germany are in turmoil, the prime minister of South Korea was impeached, Donald Trump eked out a small win and had no coattails, and now Trudeau is throwing in the towel. The peasants have grabbed their pitchforks and no leaders are safe. People want the government to solve their problems, but they are so divided on the solution that many democratic countries are paralyzed. Dictatorships have it easier. The people just have to hope for a dictator who has the country's best interests at heart (like Xi Jinping) and not one who doesn't (like Vladimir Putin).

Trudeau will stay on as a caretaker leader, and thus caretaker PM, until his party can pick a replacement in a nationwide process that could take a month or two. That will be followed sometime this year by a parliamentary election, with the Liberals' main opponent being the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre.

Trudeau had a long run as prime minister (9 years) but the people have had enough of him. There will be an election in or before October, and Trudeau's party is polling at 16%. That makes Joe Biden's polling look fantastic. Rather than being beaten badly, Trudeau decided to take one for the team and let his party pick a new leader who will hopefully do better.

Donald Trump's promised tariffs on imports from Canada probably didn't help Trudeau much, though whoever succeeds him will still have to deal with the tariffs, which will have a strong negative effect on the Canadian economy. And Trudeau's problems are much deeper than Trump's plans. Trudeau's former minister of finance and deputy prime minister, Chrystia Freeland, quit the Cabinet last month and the minister of housing, Sean Fraser, is about to quit. The wheels are coming off the bus.

When the general election campaign begins, it is likely that Poilievre will make a point of saying that since he is conservative, Trump will like him better than he likes Trudeau. The implication here is that Poilievre will have more influence with Trump than Trudeau did. Whether that is actually true remains to be seen, though. But as a campaign theme, it could help.

But before the general election happens, the Liberal Party has to pick a new leader, who will automatically become prime minister. Here are four of the leading candidates. Former deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland is clearly interested in the job. She was formerly a journalist (including a stint in Ukraine) and is married to a reporter for The New York Times. Mélanie Joly is another potential PM. She is minister of foreign affairs. She is a lawyer from Quebec (hence the little doodad in her first name). She was elected to parliament in 2015 and has held multiple cabinet jobs. Mark Carney is the former governor of the Bank of Canada and also the Bank of England. He also worked for Bloomberg, Inc. and Goldman Sachs. He knows a lot about money. Despite being from Alberta, he went to Harvard. Dominic LeBlanc is Trudeau's long-time friend and former babysitter when he was a kid. He replaced Freeland when she quit the cabinet as minister of finance. He has held cabinet jobs since 2015. The choice will be made by members of the Liberal Party. Canada had a female prime minster, Kim Campbell, from June 1993 to Nov. 1993 so if either of the women win, she won't be covered in broken glass from a shattered glass ceiling. (V)

Some Fun Facts about the 119th Congress

Let's end today with some fun facts about the 119th Congress:

• Seven new House members were born in the 1990s; the youngest House member is 27.
• Three new members played major roles in Trump's first impeachment.
• Three new members have degrees in both medicine and law.
• Two House members from Virginia were born in countries that no longer exist (Soviet Union, Trieste).
• There are now seven retired Navy SEALs in the House, all Republicans.
• Six members of Congress were born on Oct. 24.
• Four last names now each have five members that bear them: Johnson, Moore, Scott, and Smith.
• Three new House members were previously in the House, left, and are now back for a second round.
• Three House members have a (great) grandfather who was also in the House.
• Rep. Brad Knott (R-NC) is a quadruplet.
• Rep. Gil Cisneros (D-CA) was never interested in politics until he won a $266 million lottery jackpot.
• Some House members have unusual résumés: Laura Gillen was a scuba instructor; Michael Baumgartner worked for the Prince of Dubai.

For more details, see the linked article. (V)

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