News from the Votemaster

It looks like 2025 is ready for us, but we are not quite ready for 2025. We expect to be up and running for more Carterisms Friday. Tomorrow should be an exciting day, what with the House electing a speaker—or not.

We Are Ready for the 2026 Senate and Gubernatorial Races

Nevertheless, we have stuff to keep you busy today.

• Examine the new Senate map by hovering over states.
• Check out all the 2026 Senate races using the "Senate candidates" link in the blue bar above the map.
• Look at the 38 gubernatorial races this cycle using the "Governor's races" link in the menu to the left of the map.

These will be updated throughout the year as more information comes in. Check them out once in a while.

Very briefly here is an executive summary of the Senate races this cycle. The Democrats are going to try like hell to dislodge Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Thom Tillis (R-NC). The pressure on Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) and former governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina to jump in would turn a lump of coal into a diamond. Both govs have been elected to the governorship twice, so they are strong candidates for the Senate. If they both win and nothing else changes, the Republican majority in the Senate will be reduced to 51-49.

Then there are two other interesting races: Georgia and Kentucky. In Georgia, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is up and this time without Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) to turn out the Black vote. Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) thinks he would make a fine president, but he has to first decide if he wants to run for Ossoff's seat in 2026 as preparation.

Kentucky is also interesting. Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) is acutely aware that the first two Andrews as president (Jackson and Johnson) were meh. On behalf of all the other Andrews, he thinks he would be a better president than they were. But if Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) races off into the sunset (as fast as turtles can), there will be an open seat in Kentucky in Senate in 2026. Beshear might decide to use it as a stepping stone to his 2028 presidential run.

For the Democrats, the ideal scenario is that Kemp decides not to run for the Senate in 2026 in order to focus on 2028, which will probably save Ossoff's hide, and Beshear decides to go for the (probably) open Senate seat. This is plausible because Kemp knows that unseating a sitting senator is tough. The reelection rate is over 90%. Beshear would have a much-easier open-seat race. If the Maine and North Carolina governors jump in and win and Kemp stays out and Beshear gets in, the Democrats might make it to a 50-50 Senate, giving Vice President J.D. Vance something to do all day—break ties in the Senate. It's a long shot, but possible.

Finally, there will be a special election in Ohio for the seat of J.D. Vance and in Florida for the seat of soon-to-be Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Appointed senators don't have a great track record, so there is at least a glimmer of a chance that the Democrats could take both the Senate and House if there is an anti-incumbent wave in 2026, as there often is in the midterms.

So despite the lack of Carterisms, you have something to do today, checking out the Senate and races for governor.

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---The Votemaster