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New polls: AZ CO FL GA MD MI MN NC NV OH PA TX VA WI
Dem pickups: NC
GOP pickups: AZ GA
Sorry, today's post is rather meager. Yesterday, after it was too late to hand the reins over to (V) on an emergency basis, (Z) joined the COVID club for the first time. Fortunately, yesterday we had a long piece on the debate, in case you missed it.
Tonight's the Night
For the first, and very possible only, time during this campaign, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will be in the same room. Their job will be to "debate." Of course, neither one has any interest whatsoever in debating the issues. Trump wants to demonstrate that Harris is a pinko Commie a few miles to the left of Leon Trotsky. Harris wants to demonstrate that Trump is a doddering old fool who can't feed himself without drooling all over his bib.
The event is being hosted and broadcast by ABC News, though it will be simulcast by CBS News, NBC News, CNN, MSNBC and a number of other outlets. It will also be streamed on a bunch of platforms. The ABC News stream will be here.
As promised, we have put together our little bits of fun. If you would like to play bingo with friends and family, here are some bingo cards. Alternatively, if you'd like to participate in our "for everyone" game, the link is here.
Also, there's this, from reader B.J. in Arlington, MA:
I created the Electoral Vote space on Slack shortly before the June 2024 debate. 254 people joined and we had a... "lively" isn't the right word(*)... discussion during and after the debate. A smaller group of regulars have ongoing discussions in the #general channel about news of the day or whatever else we feel like. You can join the Slack with this link: https://join.slack.com/t/electoralvote/shared_invite/zt-2qhapnfkw-j_VITO6lA9LsFCqkn9YfKw. All new members will be added to the #general channel and also the #debate-september2024 channel I just created. Privacy note: Everyone is welcome to use whatever name they want in Slack, but I recommend initials and location as we do here so we know "who" we are talking to. The e-mail address you sign up with is hidden from everyone in Slack except the admin. I am the admin. I will not use or share the e-mail addresses. * - "Morose" is a more accurate word, but at least we had people to share our pain with.
And there you have it. The fun starts tonight at 9:00 p.m. ET. (Z)
Today's Presidential Polls
As compensation for not much text, boy do we have polls today! Multiple pollsters (or their sponsors) thought it would be good to have a baseline before the debate so they can poll again in a few days and see if the debate made a difference. We thoroughly applaud this. Maybe the moderators will even ask Trump about the polls. If they prove correct, Harris can win even without Georgia and Arizona, which Biden won in 2020. North Carolina is surely worrisome to Trump. If Harris loses Pennsylvania, she can make up for it with North Carolina plus Nevada. (V)
| State | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Start | End | Pollster |
| Arizona | 47% | 49% | Aug 30 | Sep 08 | Morning Consult |
| Colorado | 55% | 40% | Aug 30 | Sep 08 | Morning Consult |
| Florida | 47% | 49% | Aug 30 | Sep 08 | Morning Consult |
| Georgia | 45% | 47% | Sep 05 | Sep 06 | Florida Atlantic U. |
| Georgia | 46% | 49% | Sep 04 | Sep 08 | Quinnipiac U. |
| Georgia | 48% | 48% | Aug 30 | Sep 08 | Morning Consult |
| Maryland | 62% | 34% | Aug 30 | Sep 08 | Morning Consult |
| Michigan | 49% | 46% | Aug 30 | Sep 08 | Morning Consult |
| Minnesota | 51% | 44% | Aug 30 | Sep 08 | Morning Consult |
| North Carolina | 47% | 48% | Sep 05 | Sep 06 | Florida Atlantic U. |
| North Carolina | 48% | 48% | Aug 30 | Sep 08 | Morning Consult |
| North Carolina | 49% | 46% | Sep 04 | Sep 07 | SurveyUSA |
| North Carolina | 50% | 47% | Sep 04 | Sep 08 | Quinnipiac U. |
| Nevada | 48% | 48% | Aug 30 | Sep 08 | Morning Consult |
| Ohio | 44% | 52% | Aug 30 | Sep 08 | Morning Consult |
| Pennsylvania | 49% | 46% | Aug 30 | Sep 08 | Morning Consult |
| Texas | 43% | 52% | Aug 30 | Sep 08 | Morning Consult |
| Virginia | 52% | 42% | Aug 30 | Sep 08 | Morning Consult |
| Wisconsin | 49% | 46% | Aug 30 | Sep 08 | Morning Consult |
Click on a state name for a graph of its polling history.
Today's Senate Polls
The Senate map seems stable. It's probably all going to come down to Montana. Poor Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT). The fate of the nation rests on him beating a flying fireman from Minnesota in a blood-red state. (V)| State | Democrat | D % | Republican | R % | Start | End | Pollster |
| Arizona | Ruben Gallego | 49% | Kari Lake | 41% | Aug 30 | Sep 08 | Morning Consult |
| Florida | Debbie Mucarsel-Powell | 42% | Rick Scott* | 47% | Aug 30 | Sep 08 | Morning Consult |
| Maryland | Angela Alsobrooks | 48% | Larry Hogan | 43% | Aug 30 | Sep 08 | Morning Consult |
| Michigan | Elissa Slotkin | 48% | Mike Rogers | 41% | Sep 03 | Sep 06 | YouGov |
| Michigan | Elissa Slotkin | 49% | Mike Rogers | 40% | Aug 30 | Sep 08 | Morning Consult |
| Nevada | Jacky Rosen* | 50% | Sam Brown | 40% | Aug 30 | Sep 08 | Morning Consult |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown* | 46% | Bernie Moreno | 43% | Aug 30 | Sep 08 | Morning Consult |
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey* | 48% | David McCormick | 41% | Sep 03 | Sep 06 | YouGov |
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey* | 49% | David McCormick | 40% | Aug 30 | Sep 08 | Morning Consult |
| Texas | Colin Allred | 42% | Ted Cruz* | 47% | Aug 30 | Sep 08 | Morning Consult |
| Wisconsin | Tammy Baldwin* | 49% | Eric Hovde | 42% | Aug 30 | Sep 08 | Morning Consult |
| Wisconsin | Tammy Baldwin* | 51% | Eric Hovde | 43% | Sep 03 | Sep 06 | YouGov |
* Denotes incumbent
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