Harris 292
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Trump 246
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Click for Senate
Dem 49
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GOP 51
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  • Strongly Dem (189)
  • Likely Dem (37)
  • Barely Dem (66)
  • Exactly tied (0)
  • Barely GOP (68)
  • Likely GOP (78)
  • Strongly GOP (100)
270 Electoral votes needed to win This date in 2020 2016 2012
New polls: AZ CO FL GA MD MI MN NC NV OH PA TX VA WI
the Dem pickups vs. 2020: NC
GOP pickups vs. 2020: AZ GA
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Harris Alpha Female Debate
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My Reaction to Tonight’s Presidential Debate

TODAY'S HEADLINES (click to jump there; use your browser's "Back" button to return here)
      •  Tonight's the Night
      •  Today's Presidential Polls
      •  Today's Senate Polls

Sorry, today's post is rather meager. Yesterday, after it was too late to hand the reins over to (V) on an emergency basis, (Z) joined the COVID club for the first time. Fortunately, yesterday we had a long piece on the debate, in case you missed it.

Tonight's the Night

For the first, and very possible only, time during this campaign, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will be in the same room. Their job will be to "debate." Of course, neither one has any interest whatsoever in debating the issues. Trump wants to demonstrate that Harris is a pinko Commie a few miles to the left of Leon Trotsky. Harris wants to demonstrate that Trump is a doddering old fool who can't feed himself without drooling all over his bib.

The event is being hosted and broadcast by ABC News, though it will be simulcast by CBS News, NBC News, CNN, MSNBC and a number of other outlets. It will also be streamed on a bunch of platforms. The ABC News stream will be here.

As promised, we have put together our little bits of fun. If you would like to play bingo with friends and family, here are some bingo cards. Alternatively, if you'd like to participate in our "for everyone" game, the link is here.

Also, there's this, from reader B.J. in Arlington, MA:

I created the Electoral Vote space on Slack shortly before the June 2024 debate. 254 people joined and we had a... "lively" isn't the right word(*)... discussion during and after the debate. A smaller group of regulars have ongoing discussions in the #general channel about news of the day or whatever else we feel like. You can join the Slack with this link: https://join.slack.com/t/electoralvote/shared_invite/zt-2qhapnfkw-j_VITO6lA9LsFCqkn9YfKw. All new members will be added to the #general channel and also the #debate-september2024 channel I just created. Privacy note: Everyone is welcome to use whatever name they want in Slack, but I recommend initials and location as we do here so we know "who" we are talking to. The e-mail address you sign up with is hidden from everyone in Slack except the admin. I am the admin. I will not use or share the e-mail addresses. * - "Morose" is a more accurate word, but at least we had people to share our pain with.

And there you have it. The fun starts tonight at 9:00 p.m. ET. (Z)

Today's Presidential Polls

As compensation for not much text, boy do we have polls today! Multiple pollsters (or their sponsors) thought it would be good to have a baseline before the debate so they can poll again in a few days and see if the debate made a difference. We thoroughly applaud this. Maybe the moderators will even ask Trump about the polls. If they prove correct, Harris can win even without Georgia and Arizona, which Biden won in 2020. North Carolina is surely worrisome to Trump. If Harris loses Pennsylvania, she can make up for it with North Carolina plus Nevada. (V)

State Kamala Harris Donald Trump Start End Pollster
Arizona 47% 49% Aug 30 Sep 08 Morning Consult
Colorado 55% 40% Aug 30 Sep 08 Morning Consult
Florida 47% 49% Aug 30 Sep 08 Morning Consult
Georgia 45% 47% Sep 05 Sep 06 Florida Atlantic U.
Georgia 46% 49% Sep 04 Sep 08 Quinnipiac U.
Georgia 48% 48% Aug 30 Sep 08 Morning Consult
Maryland 62% 34% Aug 30 Sep 08 Morning Consult
Michigan 49% 46% Aug 30 Sep 08 Morning Consult
Minnesota 51% 44% Aug 30 Sep 08 Morning Consult
North Carolina 47% 48% Sep 05 Sep 06 Florida Atlantic U.
North Carolina 48% 48% Aug 30 Sep 08 Morning Consult
North Carolina 49% 46% Sep 04 Sep 07 SurveyUSA
North Carolina 50% 47% Sep 04 Sep 08 Quinnipiac U.
Nevada 48% 48% Aug 30 Sep 08 Morning Consult
Ohio 44% 52% Aug 30 Sep 08 Morning Consult
Pennsylvania 49% 46% Aug 30 Sep 08 Morning Consult
Texas 43% 52% Aug 30 Sep 08 Morning Consult
Virginia 52% 42% Aug 30 Sep 08 Morning Consult
Wisconsin 49% 46% Aug 30 Sep 08 Morning Consult

Click on a state name for a graph of its polling history.

Today's Senate Polls

The Senate map seems stable. It's probably all going to come down to Montana. Poor Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT). The fate of the nation rests on him beating a flying fireman from Minnesota in a blood-red state. (V)

State Democrat D % Republican R % Start End Pollster
Arizona Ruben Gallego 49% Kari Lake 41% Aug 30 Sep 08 Morning Consult
Florida Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 42% Rick Scott* 47% Aug 30 Sep 08 Morning Consult
Maryland Angela Alsobrooks 48% Larry Hogan 43% Aug 30 Sep 08 Morning Consult
Michigan Elissa Slotkin 48% Mike Rogers 41% Sep 03 Sep 06 YouGov
Michigan Elissa Slotkin 49% Mike Rogers 40% Aug 30 Sep 08 Morning Consult
Nevada Jacky Rosen* 50% Sam Brown 40% Aug 30 Sep 08 Morning Consult
Ohio Sherrod Brown* 46% Bernie Moreno 43% Aug 30 Sep 08 Morning Consult
Pennsylvania Bob Casey* 48% David McCormick 41% Sep 03 Sep 06 YouGov
Pennsylvania Bob Casey* 49% David McCormick 40% Aug 30 Sep 08 Morning Consult
Texas Colin Allred 42% Ted Cruz* 47% Aug 30 Sep 08 Morning Consult
Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin* 49% Eric Hovde 42% Aug 30 Sep 08 Morning Consult
Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin* 51% Eric Hovde 43% Sep 03 Sep 06 YouGov

* Denotes incumbent


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---The Votemaster and Zenger
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